Manifesto on Sheed/McDyess/Maxiell/and Johnson...

I've resisted the idea in the past, but upon further review, I think that it makes sense to send either Maxiell or Amir to the starting lineup in place of Mick Dice.

Here is my rationale. Dice and Sheed are too similar and Max and Amir are too similar. When those pairs play together, there is too much overlap with strengths and weaknesses.

Here are the main stats that I'm looking at to confirm this.

FGA's in the paint:
Amir- 84%
JMax- 52%
Dice- 26%
Sheed- 17%

Now, what is the point in having both Sheed and Dyess floating outside on offense? We are spreading the floor for Chauncey, who doesn't really take advantage of it, when someone like Stuckey could really use the spacing. Conversely, aren't we crowding the paint with Amir and Max basically camped out there? They'll be in eachother's way and the defense can clog the paint to negate Stuck and Afflalo.

Offensive rebounding % (of all available when they are on the floor):
Amir- 13.7%
JMax- 10.1%
Dice- 8.1%
Sheed- 4.3%

This makes total sense. If you are camped out on the 3-point line, you won't get many offensive rebounds. Amir is a certified garbage man right now. AJ and JM are quick jumpers and are at the peak of their athleticism. AJ and Sheed would be yin and yang.

Defensive rebounding %:
Dice- 22.6%
Sheed- 20.5%
Amir- 16.3%
JMax- 15.1%

Here is where the vets are golden and where our youngsters have some learning to do. My theory is that Dice and Sheed probably steal a fair number of defensive rebounds that the other could have gotten. That is even more reason to split these 2 up and give Amir and Max some help. We know that it isn't lack of desire, but JM and AJ are not pulling down the defensive boards. Max = lack of height to get the easy ones. AJ = lack of bulk. They both are free form rebounders and don't box out like the vets too. Split em up.

Shot Blocking:

Amir- 7.5%
JMax- 3.5%
Sheed- 3.0%
Dice- 1.4%

Amir is clearly a freak. Maxiell and Sheed are both very good shot blockers, while Dice can do it, but it's getting rarer for him due to a decline in athleticism. Amir and Dice would be the logical pairing here, but they are both more foul proned than the other two. If they were the bench unit, this would not be a big deal. Either way, we'd have a more consistent shot blocking threat if the guys were split up.

Drawing Fouls:

JMax- 25.1%!
Amir- 12.3%
Dice- 10.3%
Sheed- 7.6%

Again, this stat is pretty correlated with how much time a player spends in the paint. Except, Maxiell is clearly a foul drawing machine. Sheed could draw contact anytime he wants, but clearly doesn't feel like taking the physical abuse anymore. Here is my suggestion here: use Maxiell's greatest talent to get the other team in foul trouble early in the game. If JM played the first 75% of the 1st quarter, then every time he gets hacked, it would a) put the other team's stater 1 foul closer to being in foul trouble, b) put the Pistons 1 foul closer to being in the bonus, c) help collapse the defense and open it up for our insanely good shooters. Since Maxiell is not the best FT shooter, I'd rather have him in before the bonus anyway, for all those times he gets fouled when he's not shooting.


Conclusion:

Some of these stats suggest putting Sheed and Amir together while others suggest Sheed and JMax. There are 2 things that are obviously not going to happen: 1) Sheed is not going to come off the bench, and 2) Flip Saunders is not going to start Amir Johnson this year. Given those 2 constraints, the only logical conclusion is to start CB/Rip/Tay/Max/Sheed. The other benefits to this are that it gives our bench a veteran and it eases the minutes on Dice.

Lee, I know you suggested this several times, but it only makes sense to me now after seeing how Amir plays in real game situations.

__________________
"Everybody knows how Sheed felt when we went small, but he's buying into it." Rip