| More Fun with Mid-Year Stats
I’ve been meaning for a while to play around with the mid-season stats to see how a purely numbers based look might compare to some of the threads about mid-season player performance and most valuable Piston.
As noted in many places in many threads it is difficult to compare year over year stats when something fundamental about the team changes. For the Pistons that is their increase in scoring this year. Does a player’s scoring average going up by 2.5 PPG exceed the team’s performance, or is he just breaking even? One way to deal with comparing this sort of data is by using shares.
To do this on a full team basis I first scored using pretty standard techniques…
Points = points
Two point shots missed = -0.5
Three point shots missed = -0.75
Free throws missed = -1.0
Boards = 1.5
Assists = 2.0
Steals = 2.5
Blocks = 2.5
Turns = -1.0
Fouls = -1.0
I then sum all of that up by player for 04-05 and for all games in 05-06 (through yesterday). Rather than just looking at the numbers themselves I create percentages which normalizes things across the increased level of scoring this year (which means more possesions, more opportunities for boards, etc.).
Some numbers…
- Last year the starters accounted for 75.2% of team production. This year that is up to 77.0%. The starters are carrying a larger share of a bigger load. Starters played 71.8% of team minutes last year, up to 74.6% this year.
- McDyess was at 10.9% of total production last year, down to 8.4% this year. The next three bench players were 8.7% last year, up to 12.7% this year. Remaining bench production is down from 5.2% to 1.9%.
- On a player by player basis for the big six, the share of team production from last year to this year is…
McDyess - 10.9% down to 8.4%
BWallace – 19.9% up to 20.4%
Billups – 12.9% up to 15.9%
RWallace – 15.7% up to 15.8%
Hamilton – 12.6% up to 13.4%
Prince – 14.0% down to 11.5%
I’m finding it hard not only to acknowledge that Big Ben was team MVP last year, but also this year so far. (Yeah, I know I voted for him and them flip flopped.) CB is up from last year, but still no where near Ben in overall productivity. Even without scoring the man is dominating team production when you account for the full stat line.
McDyess is down pretty much across the board stat-wise – fewer minutes, fewer shots, a lot fewer free throws (down from 9.0% of Pistons attempts last year to 4.1% this year). He’s holding his own on the boards, in assists, steals, and blocks compared to last year. I try not to jump on the bash-Arroyo bandwagon, but the only play that seems to work consistently for him is the pick and roll with McDyess that more often than not ends with a mid to longish jumper for the big guy. Dice has got to get back into the post and get back to the line.
Prince is down a bit across most categories, but way down on assists, from 13.9% to 9.1%, and out of the gym on blocks, from 14.3% down to 5.9% of the total team blocks this season. Rebounding is also down, from 12.3% of total team boards last year to 10.4% this year. He has gone from 13.3% of threes attempted last year to 15.3% this year – so a larger share of a bigger base. He’s hanging out on the perimeter and not getting to the boards.
- Rasheed last year shot 22.8% of the team’s threes. This year he is up to 31.2%, but his makes are also up. He accounts for 29.4% of the team’s makes from beyond the arc. His rebounding is down, but blocks, steals, and assists are all up on a percentage basis relative to last year.
- Rip is pretty solid and accounts for 10.4% of the team’s offensive boards. But, assists are way down from 20.9% of assists last year to 14.0% this year. His share of steals and blocks is also down. His share of scoring is up from 18.7% to 22.2% of all points this year.
It’s a pretty interesting way to evaluate a team. And to make comparisons across teams. I think I might take a crack at the Spurs and Heat next.  |