and rebounding (Miami: 43/5 off.; Detroit: 33/9 off.)

I'd almost bet that we will have another sluggish start -- maybe not in Game 2, but somewhere else down the line.

I didn't figure it before the playoffs started, but since they have, I expected the PIstons, somewhere during this series, to give away a game at the Palace. I also expected them to take (at least) that game back from Miami in Miami. Home court advantage matters a lot -- but it's in Game 7 that it matters.

You spot them 11 or whatever in the first 3:14 of the game, and then win by 6 for the remaining 44:46 -- and all while shooting almost 20 % less from the floor than the heat (not to mention allowing Payton, Walker, and Williams too many open shots and, in general, relaxing on defense when Wade and Shaq went to the pine).

To me, that's encouraging. There were a few poorly executed plays and a few poor shot choices, but for the most part the players were moving and paassing the ball and getting open looks (unlike in the Cleveland series) -- the shots just didn't fall. Agreed, they didn't go into Tay or Sheed (or Dyess) on the block enough once the mid-range j's weren't falling. But in my opinion, if our winnning this series depends on the post play of these fellows, then we're a longer shot. I'll still put my money on Detroit, playing just the way they did over the last 45 minutes. And I'll say that they could win easily if they play just the way they did: make 5 % more of their mid-range jumpers and cut down the points of the Heat supporting cast by about 10 %.

Consider: over the last 45 minutes we outscored Miami 86-80. In that stretch, we shot 31-76 (40.7 %), Wade and Shaq combined for 28 points, Williams, Walker, and Payton combined for 41 points on 17 of 27 shooting (and it was Williams, Walker and Posey who keyed the 11-1 Miami run during the last 4 minutes of the 3rd quarter).

So now increase Detroit's fga to 45.7: that's 34.7 makes. Let's call it 34. Six more points. Now we've outscored them 92-80. Now take away just 10% of the supporting trio's 41 points and we've outscored them 92-76 over the remaining 45 minutes. Even while still spotting them an 11 point lead, we win by 5.

I know these are all hypothetical scenarios: but I saw nothing last night (or in the past of these pistons) to make me think that we won't improve both our mid-range fg % and our defense on the supporting cast. We played far better for far more of the game last night than during the debacles in the Cleveland series, and against a better opponent.

Of course, the game was super frustrating to lose, but for me at least it was frustrating because we could so easily have won -- and therefore, for me, it wasn't discouraging in the slightest.