Okay guys. How about one of my basketball Einstein friends here pointing out the error of my logic I am about to put forth. As most of you know, I am a numbers guy by trade. I don't like to be wrong so I often try to put a number to something to determine which way I should go or believe. Last night during the Miami game, I was somewhat stunned by the outpouring of venom towards Flip in the chat room when things weren't going according to plan. I guess the main reason I was stunned is because we have the best record in the NBA right now. I understand we haven't been doing great lately according to Piston standards, but to me, I see this primarily as a fruit of boredom. For example, I'm a football guy. It's extremely hard to win a game right after you beat an awesome opponent when it was so emotionally draining. To me, the Pistons are chilling out the last few weeks (months) and I say to them: you've earned it. Just don't blow your HCA.

Anyways. There are three beliefs among many of us that appear to be myths. The first one is Flip is no where near the coach that LB is. When I look at the numbers to see if it supports the belief that LB is superior, it's not adding up. Right now Flip is 54 and 13 as commander in chief. LB was 54 and 28 the first year and 54 and 28 the second year. That means to me that Flip has a 15 game lead in the loss column on LB. LB had a 659 winning percentage each year and Flip has an 806 winning percentage. To me, that does not prove that Flip is inferior to LB.

The second belief among many of us is that our defense is much inferior than it was last year. Last year we gave up 89.5 points per game and this year we are giving up 90.0 points per game. To say that an extra half point is MUCH inferior I believe is a bit of a stretch. In fact, I think you could make a case numerically that our defense is even better this year. Because we are often shooting much quicker this year, we probably have several more possessions than last year. To only be giving up a half a point total per game when the other team has several more possessions tells me that our defensive efficiency is actually better because we are giving up fewer points per possession than last year.

The third common belief I see among many of us that appears to be a myth is that we are shooting way too many three's. Last year, we averaged 93.3 points per game. Right now we are averaging 97.3 points per game. One of the main reasons we are averaging four more points per game than last year is because we often get one more point per shot than we did last year. Last year, we primarily only wanted two points per shot and this year, we have the freedom to try to get 3 points per shot. As a bottom line result, our winning margin has increased on average from +3.8 last year to +7.3 this year, which results in our being 15 games ahead in the loss column of our two previous years.

So numerically, it appears to me that it is a myth that Flip is inferior to LB, our defense is inferior than last year, and that we are shooting too many threes. Help me out here if you see what I am missing.

I agree. I totally agree. If there were somekind of space aged time wrap where this team could face last years I think this years would win hands down.

On the 3's the Pistons are taking 5 more 3's a game. Even with the extra shots thats not as big of a jump as some make it out to be.

Even with the 54 wins and the inability to score at times the LB system got us to the finals 2 years in a row and that I think is what most are uneasy about giving up.

I agree. I totally totally agree.

I think that Flips SYSTEM is better than LB's (at least offensively), but as far as in game coaching, I haven't actually seen Flip do anything coach related during a game yet, so I'll have to give him an INC. until he actually does something worth noting.

We certainly have no reason to fault Flip yet. Some people fault him on the bench but it is just conjecture at this point. We did have real reasons to fault Larry last year. Our offense looked pretty bad in the 1st half against Miami so I am not sure that we aren't going outside a bit too much. Still, the offense is better than last years. As on my post on the Miami game, our D is there when the guys want to turn it on. We had many, many poor defensive games last year too.

The stats that you are wondering about have already been calculated.
Here is last year's stats compare to this year.

2004-05 vs [2005-06]:
On OFFENSE
65% jump shots [71% this year]
88 possessions/ game for 93.3 points [87 for 97.5 points]
105 points/ 100 possessions [112]
Effective field goal %= .472 [.500]
26.2 Free throws per game [24.0]

DEFENSIVELY
64% jump shots [60%]
88 possessions resulting in 89.5 points [87 for 90.3]
101 pPts [103]
eFG%= .461 [.475]
21.8 FT/G [20.2]

Facts-

• We are getting in the paint a lot less this year and other teams are going inside more against us than last year.
• We are scoring more per shot this year by a lot (.28)
• Other teams are scoring more per shot by a little (.14)
• We are playing a slightly slower tempo this year
• We are shooting 2.2 free throws less per game this year
• Other teams are shooting 1.6 less free throws per game.

Analysis-
So our defense is slightly worse, but our offense is way better.

Something is making our effective field goal percentage a lot higher. Since we are shooting about 37% from 3 point land as a team, the eFG% on 3's is 0.550. Therefor, shooting more 3's has helped our overall efficiency. We may also be more efficient inside the arc too, but I don't have the breakout.

The surprising results are that we are playing a slower pace this year and that we are fouling less even though the other teams are pounding it inside against us. Maybe the refs are giving us more respect. Or maybe we have adapted to the new rules. Or maybe Sheed's "ball don't lie" chant has made the refs realize that they shouldn't call fouls that don't exist.

While all of this is great, here is why some argue that we are in trouble. The playoffs are a different animal. The defense tightens up and jump shots are taken away. Teams that rely on outside shooting will fade. Larry Brown coached the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. He may have forced the Pistons to play a style that wouldn't win as many regular season games, but would enforce good habits (ie play the right way). Flip is chasing fools gold and the Pistons will panic when their jumpers are taken away.

Here are some counterpoints- our style gets wins, which gets homecourt. It minimizes injuries by keeping our bigs away from contact. It is more fun and doesn't burn the players out. The crowd has a better time at the games and buys more beer. Etc.

well dang, Tashawn.

I don't think anything else needs to be said. lol.

Great job!

Nice job TaShawn.

Your point about jump shots is well taken. Pistons have become more of a jump shooting team and that's great as long as you believe a jump shooting team can win a championship. Not sure that I do.

I have less of a problem with the number of threes as I have with who is taking them when. Don't get me wrong, I don't mind Sheed taking threes, as long as he is scoring in the post first. It forces the defense to do some things they aren't set up to do. What I do mind is no one from the coaching staff putting his butt on the bench when he is in the middle of a 1 for 11 streak from out there. His penchant for taking a bunch in a row does seem to have gone away over the last 10-15 games though, so maybe something did happen in a less public way.

I'm also concerned about using the three as an easy way to try to get back into games. Many times this team has taken the easy way out offensively and some of the results haven't been good. Pretty acceptable 54 times so far though.

One thing all of this discussion really points out is the dearth of real analysis done about the sport today in the press. For a while everyone was being told to think of these Pistions as a running team, while they're a possession down per game re TaShawn's post. And clearly based on the numbers defensive efficiency is actually better this year -

Last Yr - opponent's scoring as a percentage of Pistons - 95.9%
This Yr - 92.6%

But then, how can you expect any rational look as the game when Bill Walton is doing it?

__________________
"But first, are you experienced? Or have you you ever been experienced? Well, I have."
Jimi

While we're on this, when was Detroit some kind of offensive juggernaut in the paint? It seems like this whole argument is based on Sheed, since Ben is a waste of possessions down low and teams have pretty much figured out Tayshaun's two post moves. But Sheed was never a gritty low post scorer, and even when he plays closer to the basket a lot of his baseline Js won't show up as points in the paint.

To me it all comes down to people wanting to make this Larry vs. Flip. But I think they're comparing Flip to a guy who doesn't exist anymore. You can't have championship Larry anymore -- only the version whose spiraling neuroses no longer appear to serve the larger goal of winning.

i'll add my compliments to tayshawn for the stats...

but i want also to second lanier's query. the jump shot percentage has gone up from 65 to 71 percent.

Last year we shot 78 shots per game, around 51 jump shots per game. This year we are shooting around 80 shots per game and around 57 jumpers. now if my thinking is straight we are taking two more shots per game than last year. let's pretend they are both jumpers. then finally we are taking just four more jumpers per game. that's something, but it's hardly enough -- in my opinion -- to justify drawing a black white distinction between a points-in-the-paint-powerhouse last year and a soft jump shooting team this year. not that i'm saying that anybody here is explicitly making such a distinction. but i do think the biggest difference between last year and this year is not the difference between "inside" and "jump shots", but rather between "jump shots" and "three pointers." it has always been a chore to get sheed to post up (which is really the only serious inside presence we've ever had). the difference between this year and last is that when sheed didn't post up last year, he just disappeared, when he doesn't post up this year, it's because he's shooting 3 or jumpers from the wing, or, as we've seen in recent games on occasion, taking his man to the hole for a runner.

I don't think anybody would dispute that sheed (and chauncey) sometimes misuse the three ball and i'm also sure everyone has had the experience of saying "no no no no YESSSSS!" as chauncey or sheed launch an ill-timed dagger three that goes in.

i think, personally, that the source of our frustration -- appearances aside -- is actually that the team has been slow to adapt, within games, to what is or isnt' working, what the other team is or isn't giving us. the 3 ball is a tremendous weapon and we have, on the whole, some pretty good 3 ball shooters. but obviously everyone has off nights, or even multi-game slumps from the perimeter, or nights where the other team's quickness on the perimeter takes away the 3. those are the nights when it's frustrating to see the pistons apparently forget that they have plenty of other offensive weapons in the arsenal: sheed posting up, chauncey driving the paint, rip slowing down as he gets the ball on the curl, making a pump fake, and taking it to the hole for a bucket, or a free throw, or a dish to a big, or a missed lay up that leaves ben open for a put back dunk. this weakness in adapting, i believe, falls equally on the shoulders of the players (who after all as they never tire of telling us are veterans who have been there and know what to do) and on flip (whose offense after all as they never tire of telling us is infinitely complex and, one would think, adaptable).

in other words, NOTHING ALWAYS works, the Pistons great strength as an offensive team is their versatility: a variety of guys who can hurt you in a variety of ways (that includes 3s, midrange jumpers, post-ups, and drives, not to mention controlled fast breaks). that they forget this versatility is what drives me nuts. but, i also acknowledge that it's only frustrating to me because this year at least i have had the opportunity to see that versatility on display. last year, the offense on many nights was as painful to experience as constipation.