Manifesto on Sheed/McDyess/Maxiell/and Johnson...

I've resisted the idea in the past, but upon further review, I think that it makes sense to send either Maxiell or Amir to the starting lineup in place of Mick Dice.

Here is my rationale. Dice and Sheed are too similar and Max and Amir are too similar. When those pairs play together, there is too much overlap with strengths and weaknesses.

Here are the main stats that I'm looking at to confirm this.

FGA's in the paint:
Amir- 84%
JMax- 52%
Dice- 26%
Sheed- 17%

Now, what is the point in having both Sheed and Dyess floating outside on offense? We are spreading the floor for Chauncey, who doesn't really take advantage of it, when someone like Stuckey could really use the spacing. Conversely, aren't we crowding the paint with Amir and Max basically camped out there? They'll be in eachother's way and the defense can clog the paint to negate Stuck and Afflalo.

Offensive rebounding % (of all available when they are on the floor):
Amir- 13.7%
JMax- 10.1%
Dice- 8.1%
Sheed- 4.3%

This makes total sense. If you are camped out on the 3-point line, you won't get many offensive rebounds. Amir is a certified garbage man right now. AJ and JM are quick jumpers and are at the peak of their athleticism. AJ and Sheed would be yin and yang.

Defensive rebounding %:
Dice- 22.6%
Sheed- 20.5%
Amir- 16.3%
JMax- 15.1%

Here is where the vets are golden and where our youngsters have some learning to do. My theory is that Dice and Sheed probably steal a fair number of defensive rebounds that the other could have gotten. That is even more reason to split these 2 up and give Amir and Max some help. We know that it isn't lack of desire, but JM and AJ are not pulling down the defensive boards. Max = lack of height to get the easy ones. AJ = lack of bulk. They both are free form rebounders and don't box out like the vets too. Split em up.

Shot Blocking:

Amir- 7.5%
JMax- 3.5%
Sheed- 3.0%
Dice- 1.4%

Amir is clearly a freak. Maxiell and Sheed are both very good shot blockers, while Dice can do it, but it's getting rarer for him due to a decline in athleticism. Amir and Dice would be the logical pairing here, but they are both more foul proned than the other two. If they were the bench unit, this would not be a big deal. Either way, we'd have a more consistent shot blocking threat if the guys were split up.

Drawing Fouls:

JMax- 25.1%!
Amir- 12.3%
Dice- 10.3%
Sheed- 7.6%

Again, this stat is pretty correlated with how much time a player spends in the paint. Except, Maxiell is clearly a foul drawing machine. Sheed could draw contact anytime he wants, but clearly doesn't feel like taking the physical abuse anymore. Here is my suggestion here: use Maxiell's greatest talent to get the other team in foul trouble early in the game. If JM played the first 75% of the 1st quarter, then every time he gets hacked, it would a) put the other team's stater 1 foul closer to being in foul trouble, b) put the Pistons 1 foul closer to being in the bonus, c) help collapse the defense and open it up for our insanely good shooters. Since Maxiell is not the best FT shooter, I'd rather have him in before the bonus anyway, for all those times he gets fouled when he's not shooting.


Conclusion:

Some of these stats suggest putting Sheed and Amir together while others suggest Sheed and JMax. There are 2 things that are obviously not going to happen: 1) Sheed is not going to come off the bench, and 2) Flip Saunders is not going to start Amir Johnson this year. Given those 2 constraints, the only logical conclusion is to start CB/Rip/Tay/Max/Sheed. The other benefits to this are that it gives our bench a veteran and it eases the minutes on Dice.

Lee, I know you suggested this several times, but it only makes sense to me now after seeing how Amir plays in real game situations.

__________________
"Will was rolling, wasn't he? I roll with the guy that's hot." MC

You had found another stat somewhere (82games?) that was not strictly in the paint, but in the general area. Maybe that only makes Amir and Max go to 100% and Sheed and Dice to 50% and doesn't change the argument though.

I don't think you can not start Sheed, so that would put Dice first off the bench (again). My only concern would be that Dice has picked up his game this year and I think that comes from starting (both more minutes and more production). He's really turning into a rebounding animal and I'd hate to lose that. Getting a consistent level of energy and somebody always trolling the paint might make losing that worthwhile though.

If it's a three big man rotation, then I think you have to leave Sheed and Dice starting. If the Pistons really play a consistent four big man rotation, with Max picking up a couple of minutes and Amir 10-15, then this is really interesting.

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"But first, are you experienced? Or have you you ever been experienced? Well, I have."
Jimi

I looked at the "hotzones" data. Maybe I'll dig up a current version and see. I agree that when Sheed shoots that baseline fadaway from the post, that it is pseudo in-the-paint.

I agree with that too. That's why this is tough. It has nothing to do with downgrading Dyess, just mixing it up. This is where the coach would have to massage it. And against certain teams, I think you are better off starting Dyess than Maxiell because of the size match-ups.

That is why I didn't like the idea of starting Maxiell earlier. But now that Amir has seemingly cracked the rotation, then it has become clear to me that having 2 scrappers out there off the bench is not optimizing. The Bulls are a good example of why you don't want a bunch of similar big men (Ben/Joakim/Tyrus).

__________________
"Will was rolling, wasn't he? I roll with the guy that's hot." MC

But is it ever a good idea to switch your starting lineup just based on your opponent? Avery Johnson was slaughtered for doing that against the Warriors last year in the playoffs, with plenty of observers pointing to that as an indication of why they lost that series. Adjustments are always necessary to some extent, but when does it cross over into "letting the opponent dictate to you instead of imposing your will on them" territory?

Maxey is not good enough to start. In fact I would put him behind AJ at this time.

Maxey will never be able to rebound.
His defense is questionable
His passing is mediocre
His shooting has improved but his range is limited

AJ is like Rip totally misunderstood by almost all fans.

Rip is a great three point shooter but will forever be looked at as a mid range jump shooting guy.

AJ has been working on his strength and defense. They have both improved significantly.

Now that the Pistons are home for a stretch I expect Flipper and staff to work some plays in for AJ to run on offense.

AJ has a shooting range of up to the arc if not beyond. But he is a smart kid and at this point is doing what the staff wants which is to rebound and play defense. His offense will come and will far surpass anything Maxiell will ever do.

AJ is a potential all-star
Maxey is a role bench player.

That is how I see it and am very confident that time will prove me correct, just like it did with Bynum who ain't no K. Cato.

I took the coach's tendencies into account when I recommended starting Maxiell... just because it is a more realistic option based on the trust he has built. Maxiell has his limitations, but he is also going to have them coming off the bench. When you say he's a poor rebounder, I think you mean that he's a poor defensive rebounder. And that is the basis of my theory... to match a strong defensive rebounder with a weak one, and vise versa for the offensive rebounding (Sheed's weakness).

I'd like to say Amir to start, but it's just premature right now. He's barely played at all, so it would just be pure fantasy. Next year that would be a great option if he can fully emerge as a contributor this year and into the playoffs.

Interesting question. Do teams usually maintain the same starting lineup because with the salary cap and limited talent pool guys 6 - 10 are just not as good or do they do it because it makes for a better team?

Is it the same if a team switches up assignments - Pops putting Bowen on Rip?

JMAX rebounds the defensive glass just fine, when he is asked to rebound. He generally plays along side any one of Dyess, Sheed, or these days, Amir, who are all more prone to be doing the board work. And of course, he gets his offensive boards with the best.

Look at this last game. Talk about poor rebounding, then talk about our starting tandem of Dyess and Sheed. They could not clear the defensive glass at all in that first quarter. (Like many, many games this season so far) Maxiell comes in the game and the problem stops cold. Between him and Amir iinjecting some youthful legs into the rebounding situation, we completely reversed things and ended up out rebounding Indiana badly.

JMAX is by far and away a better overall defender than Dyess or Sheed. He is simply more active. For sure, Sheed is more effective on some bigger players, but for the most part, Maxiell gets to plays, and stops scoring, far more often than either of Dyess or Sheed. (With Sheed of course being far the better between the two.)

Is Amir better than JMAX defensively? Potentially, but not yet. JMAX has the experience factor going for him at the moment.

Next question. Who should start. Sheed and Amir. These are your two best post players. We should start games with a serious bent toward going inside.

JMAX should be the first sub, for Tay. This gives a front line of Amir, Sheed, and JMAX. Amir plays small forward here.

Dyess comes in for Sheed, playing 20 minutes per game to Sheeds 28

Between Amir and Jason playing all 48 of the power forward minutes, and 20 of the small forward minutes, thats 68 minutes, or 34 minutes a piece for JMAX and Amir. A bit too much. So Samb should play some of the center minutes, moving Sheed and Dyess to power forward a bit, while Afflalo should play some of the small forward minutes. (Sorry Hayes, I like defense.)

Rebounds per48 minutes for players who have played at least 20 games this season...

1. Marcus Camby - 19.5
2. Dwight Howard - 18.4
3. Jeff Foster - 17.5
4. Tyson Chandler - 17.2
5. Kurt Thomas - 17.2
6. Chris Kaman - 17.0
7. Andrew Bynum - 16.9
8. Andris Biedrins - 16.9
9. Amir Johnson - 16.7
10. Joel Przybilla - 16.3

AJ is the only guy on that list that isn't a center, and he's climbing fast with his playing time increasing. Pretty impressive even though I don't put a ton of stock in per48 numbers.

Since entering the rotation (4 games): 51 minutes, 24 boards, 7 blocks.

Wasting the first 40 games of the season for AJ was a travesty IMO.

No problem. Never too late for someone to see the light lol. But anyway, Flip is changing you notice. Amir starting is what is best for this team.

Either Amir or JMAX should be on the floor at all times, so that it is never easy for the other team to waltz down the lane and lay the ball in.

Sheed and Dyess, if played only center minutes, would be playing less altogeter, and be more effective for the minutes they do play. And you would always have a fresh, somewhat legitimate center in the game at all times.

JMAX and Amir could still be paired up, as forwards, with Amir being the small forward. Note Hayes had another off shooting night, and his defense, despite a lot of hustle, still leaves a lot to be desired. We would be a better team with Amir playing the backup small forward minutes, along with Afflalo sometimes.