Det 1998 51.5% vs. opp 53.0%

Det 1999 50.9% vs. opp 53.6%

Det 2000 54.1% vs. opp 55.2%

So other than our current team, the 1999-2000 team had the best offense, and also had the worst defense of any of the teams from 1997-1998 until present.

You could seperate out 2pta*2FG + 3/2*3pta*3FG + 1/2*FTA*FT%

But aren't 2-pt attempts, 3-pt attempts and FT's already factored into the total points and total FG%? Even if a team gets to line often and has lower shot attempts the FT's still factor into the total points.



Really the bottom line to me besides winning % is the total point differential.

Max, what you are suggesting is the same as whats in my formula. I am not saying my formula could not be simplified, but I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with it. But here is the problem. I want to keep things in terms of percents, to make the stat understandable. I could have come out with a stat in terms of points per opponents possesion, but that does not easily translate in ones mind. What people are use to is field goal percentages. I just added to that a factor for how often they get to shoot, adjusting everything to make free throw attempted and free throws made a part of the percentages. And added in credit for triples having that extra point.

With this stat, we say Washington effectively scored 49% of the time after we put up a shot attempt or set of free throws.

Conversely, we had a 47.5% success rate.

One of the things my chief engineer stresses is "the make sense test". Rather than sweat the numbers, what value is it to know the success rate me or my opponent has after an opposing shot atempt.

Not judging, just trying to see the potential.

And to define where constants are derived from. Like where is the 2.3 coming from? Why 2.3?

My contention is that good defense and good offense are to an extent the same thing. Good offense flows into good defense, which in turn can create offense. Note, I did not say create good offense, just offense. If your defensive play comes up with the ball, you still then have to execute good offense to keep the cycle going.

So you shoot the ball. What is the expectation. Its that either make the shot, or that the other team clears the defensive rebound and you are now playing defense either way.

By focusing in on your own shot attempts, you are starting at the right place to study your defense. Because defense is certainly part of that shot selection.

Do you have your offensive rebounders in place? If you do there is a chance you will get the offensive rebound if you miss the shot. And of course, if you do get the offensive rebound, the other team can't score.

If you don't make the shot, and the other team gets the rebound, do you have people back on defense to prevent them from getting an easy fast break score. You better have thought of this before the shot goes up.

You have heard that rebounding is part of defense. Indeed, it most cetainly is. If you get the ball, the other team can't score. And this goes for both ends of the floor.

So back to that time you are about to take a shot. What are you going to judge the success of this shot attempt on. It should be two things. Your percentage of the time you will get your points from the shot. And next, the percentage of times the other team will get a score when they get the ball after your shot, whether it be a make or miss. Yes, even if you make the shot, you could be so badly out of position on defense that they get an easy fast break score.

So when does your defense start? The moment you take a shot. If you make the shot, that puts the other team under their own basket to start their offensive posession. If you miss the shot, your positioning of your guys will have a large part in whether your opponent can fast break on you. First of all, if you get the offensive rebound, you just shut them out of a posession. Even if you don't get the offensive rebound, fighting hard for it forces the other team to keep more guys at their defensive end of the floor to clear that board, and less at the offensive end.

Now, you shot the shot at the right time with your guys in position. The other team still got the rebound. But they had to go into a halfcourt set. You play tough D and steal the ball from them. But that steal would have never occurred if they had just dunked the ball on you from a fast break. You got to avoid fast break scores from them to even give your defense a chance. So that shot selection is really, really important.

Now, this is not meant to be everything about shot selection. A lot more to it. Targeting particular players on the opposing team to get them into foul trouble, keeping your own guys out of foul trouble if they are needed too much on defense, and many other factors go into shot selection. But here is one thing that is very important pretty much always. Get to the line and make your free throws. It gets them into foul trouble, but about just as important, it puts you into the best defensive position. (Assuming you do make your free throws, offensive rebounding position is not needed.)

My formula counts a couple tries at the line as a posession. But some free throw attempts are on traditional three point plays. And a few on techs. So arbitrarily, I chose to divide by 2.3 when doing the calculation to convert free throw attempts to posessions.

If you turn the ball over, you don't get a shot attempt. So, your percentage goes down. Remember, the first factor is how many shot attempts you get after an opponents shot. The second factor is what percentage of time you score 2 points. Adusted for made 3's as it is an effective percentage to be a bit more useful.