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Pretty amazing that the SF position is only 3rd in the league for FTA for the Cavs. The Clips and ...

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Old 03-28-2008, 12:58 PM
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Re: Plus/Minus and its relevance

Pretty amazing that the SF position is only 3rd in the league for FTA for the Cavs. The Clips and Nets are ahead. Their games must take three hours to play if they're taking more FTAs than LBJ.
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Old 04-01-2008, 11:25 AM
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Re: Plus/Minus and its relevance

I hope I'm not boring you guys with this stuff, but I think the recently published "clutch" numbers show something interesting with our team.

"clutch" is defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points."

This season, Sheed gets the majority of our clutch shots, followed by Billups, with Rip in 3rd. Their performance in these situations should make Flip re-evaluate who his go-to players are.

Sheed:
He takes 22.5 shots per 48 minutes of crunch time and shoots a horrendous .259 from the floor. Of those shots, 7.5 of them are 3-pointers, where he is shooting .167. This is only slightly above BEN Wallace's career 3P% of .116. So, would we want Sheed or Ben shooting a game winning 3 pointer for us? It wouldn't really matter. Conclusion: Quit drawing up plays for Sheed in crunch time. The other team expects it and it isn't working.

Chauncey:
He takes 19.9 shots per 48 and shoots .457. Not great, but still about twice as good as Sheed. Of those, 7.8 are 3's, where he averages .278. Again, this is a better option than Sheed, but way below his normal 3-point average. Since it is clear that pressure doesn't bother CB, it is pretty obvious that he is covered on these 3-point attempts. Conclusion: Consider mixing up the plays a bit to decrease the predictability under pressure.

Rip:
He takes 18.8 shots per 48 and averages a stellar .512. Of those, only 6 are 3 pointers, where his average is .385, which is pretty solid for pressure situations. Conclusion: Rip is more clutch than we give him credit for, the other team knows we are going to Sheed and Chauncey, so draw up more plays for Rip.
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Old 04-01-2008, 11:59 AM
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Re: Plus/Minus and its relevance

All the more reason to play the starters 43 of the first 43 minutes and make sure the game isn't close. See, there is a plan.

This does look pretty bad. How do the Pistons' top three rank relative to other teams?
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Old 04-01-2008, 12:25 PM
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Re: Plus/Minus and its relevance

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Originally Posted by dba View Post
This does look pretty bad. How do the Pistons' top three rank relative to other teams?
There are some really clutch players out there. Nash and Ginobili are probably the best all around IMO, when you factor in efficiency and quadruple threat (3-point shooting too).

Sortable NBA Player Clutch stats

Here is one other thing to consider though. The Pistons haven't had that much crunch time this year because we have a pretty high average point spread. So, I guess you could say that the sample size is on the small side. Also, the crunch time games we have had tend to be against pretty good defensive teams.
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Old 04-01-2008, 01:08 PM
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Re: Plus/Minus and its relevance

Man, LBJ is pretty impressive in the clutch.

I hate it when it turns out that way.

This is a really interesting ranking - especially the percent assisted column showing who is really getting their own shots and who is having the ball served on a platter.
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Old 04-01-2008, 02:28 PM
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Re: Plus/Minus and its relevance

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This is a really interesting ranking - especially the percent assisted column showing who is really getting their own shots and who is having the ball served on a platter.
I was thinking about that too. Dirk's is probably the exception to that rule with > 50% assisted. I doubt those are wide open shots. I guess in that case, whoever throws him the ball gets the assist, even though Dirk is probably triple teamed.

The problem that I see developing with the Pistons, and I think the stats show it, is that we are getting into trouble when we try to play isolation bball. Rip is shooting so well in the clutch 1) b/c he is good under pressure, but also because 2) he is getting open and they are passing him the ball. When Chauncey and Sheed decide they are going to score, they are often putting up heavily contested shots. The beauty of this team is that we have 5 experienced starters who can all knock down long jump shots. We need to work a little harder to be unpredictable and unselfish when it really matters.
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