When they say "the team that scores first wins x% of the time" - not accounting for the notion that any team that fails to score never wins at all. It would have to be the team that scores first when both teams score to make any sense at all.

That has always bugged me too.

Here is why it's a meaningless stat.

It's usually used in playoff series where one team wins the first game of the series. Well, to take a simple example, if you matched heads vs. tails against eachother in a race to 2, the side of the coin that scored first would go on to win 75% of the time. What does that tell you? It's not like that side of the coin gained a psychological advantage or got momentum, or whatever else they are implying.

Also, a related statistic is when they say, teams who go down 0-3 only win the series .001% of the time. The reason for that is because the team without a win is usually an inferior team. If the Spurs happen to find themselves down 0-3 to the Grizzlies in the playoffs, then the Spurs chance of winning the series will be more like 40%.

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"If I'm sitting there arguing with the officials, I'm giving an alibi for the team." MC

i think both of you are looking at those statistics in the wrong context. they're not necessarily meant to predict the outcome of the current game / series you're referring to, they're just reporting facts.

if a team that scores first wins X% of the time, that's simply stating a statistical fact. that doesn't mean you should try to score first no matter what (like go for 4th downs until you get until field goal range) to play those percentages. similarly, if 997 out of 1000 teams that go up 3-0 win a series, it's just reitering how historically difficult it is for the team down 0-3 to come back and win.

I know they are factual. I'm just saying they are stupid and I have to deal with them (ala the thread title).

100% of NBA teams that score the most points win the game. Very factual. Very useless.


Another related stat is the first to 100.

The team that reaches 100 points first wins 80% of the time. The team that reaches 160 first wins 99% of the time. Great. So scoring more points increasing your chances of winning, brilliant!

Actually their is one very interesting hoops stat that I like that few people outside of Los Angeles have ever heard of; i..e Lawler's Law.

The percentage is probably very close to that for all games in the league.

Ralph Lawler - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here's some follow up thoughts on my time of possession grumbling.

Detroit lost 27-28 against Dallas, yet won the TOP battle 32:25 to 27:35

Pittsburgh was crushed by New England by a score of 13 to 34, yet they won the TOP by a huge margin, 34:43 to 25:17.

Similarly, Baltimore was blown away by Indy 20-44, yet they dominated the TOP 33:09 to 26:51.


I rest my case.

Soilent Green is people, it's people !

Pardon?

Old School knows...

So from the above we can see that a team that scores first in the 3rd quarter and last in the 4th quarter has the greatest chance of winning.

The next best combination is to score last in the both the 1st and 4th quarters.

The second quarter seems to be a wash not mattering too much if you score first and last or first and last.


NBA Random Stat: How often do teams that score first and last win? from 82games.com