15th?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by Laimbrane, Jun 19, 2010.

  1. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    On espn.com, John Hollinger (who I already despised) ranks the Pistons as the 15th best franchise in the NBA. Now, only the top 10 are viewable without an insider pass (which I don't have), but he does say that they have had more all-stars than any team other than the Celtics or Lakers before the site blocks the rest of his article.

    Here are the rankings:
    • No. 1: Los Angeles Lakers
    • No. 2: Boston Celtics
    • No. 3: San Antonio Spurs
    • No. 4: Chicago Bulls
    • No. 5: Phoenix Suns
    • No. 6: Philadelphia 76ers
    • No. 7: Utah Jazz
    • No. 8: Portland Trail Blazers
    • No. 9: Orlando Magic
    • No. 10: Houston Rockets
    INSIDER
    • No. 11: Indiana Pacers
    • No. 12: Milwaukee Bucks
    • No. 13: Oklahoma City Thunder
    • No. 14: Miami Heat
    • No. 15: Detroit Pistons
    • No. 16: Dallas Mavericks
    • No. 17: New York Knicks
    • No. 18: Denver Nuggets
    • No. 19: Cleveland Cavaliers
    • No. 20: Golden State Warriors
    • No. 21: Atlanta Hawks
    • No. 22: New Jersey Nets
    • No. 23: Washington Wizards
    • No. 24: New Orleans Hornets
    • No. 25: Sacramento Kings
    • No. 26: Toronto Raptors
    • No. 27: Minnesota Timberwolves
    • No. 28: Charlotte Bobcats
    • No. 29: Los Angeles Clippers
    • No. 30: Memphis Grizzlies
    Now, this is why I hate Hollinger - all of his "stats" have way more subjectivity in them than he tends to admit. He comes up with some number with a decimal and everyone's supposed to take it as science. It's not - it's bad statistics.

    Here's what he said about his methodology:
    Okay, so here's the first problem - nobody really cares about the regular season when historically evaluating a team. It's the playoffs that matter, and you're about to see why this system undersells them.

    So, let's assume you make it to the finals and lose in seven. With four series and three series wins, you get... 26 points. That's HALF of what a 52 win team would get for the regular season alone. I know this word offends some people, but that's just plain retarded. Over the past 10 years, Detroit got 482 points for their season wins, but only 146+64+30 = 240 for its playoff success, which is just under half of the points it accumulated for the regular seasons.

    Meanwhile, Dallas had 563 points for its regular seasons, and 98+32=130 for its postseason mediocrity. This leaves Detroit in the lead, but only by virtue of their one championship.

    Having an all-star is worth as much as one playoff win, apparently, but this system is screwy anyway. And Dominique Wilkins? His 9 all-star appearances add a whopping 18 points over the course of nine years. If a team wins 50 games with a superstar, it's the same as winning 52 games without one. The point addition is so small compared to the regular season games won as to effectively marginalize the whole point of the all-star inclusion.

    Well, relocation is a loss for one city but a gain for another. Too much of a point loss. Again, I can't say for sure because I don't have that Insider pass, but Detroit probably lost 100 points for moving from Fort Wayne, even though they did it 53 years ago. Take that 100 points, spread it out over all 62 seasons, and you get a 1.61 point/season reduction, which drops them from 9th to 15th.


    Hey, look, even more subjective stats. I don't have Insider access, but it wouldn't surprise me that the Pistons got knocked down for playing slow, defensive basketball. At least he points out that it's subjective, but it's a manipulative to say that it's "the only category that's completely subjective." Somewhat arbitrarily deciding to assign points seems pretty damn subjective to me.


    I literally have no comment on this.

    So aside from all of these categories, why aren't recent seasons weighted more? The majority of their fanbase wasn't even around when Utah was the New Orleans Jazz and the Pistons were in Fort Wayne. If you're going to rank franchises, historical data certainly matters, but we're arguing about these franchises NOW. Also, points per season should be mitigated with total points; it's not fair to rank Orlando higher than Detroit because Detroit has been better than Orlando since they joined the league, but weighted down by years that Orlando didn't even exist. Detroit has had more regular season, playoff, and championship wins than Orlando in that time, and has had more all-star appearances. Yet Orlando is the better franchise because Detroit sucked in the 70's. Yeah, makes perfect sense.

    God I hate that guy.
  2. jayborne

    jayborne Bench Warmer

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    Not sure if you mentioned, but the franchise got docked points for the brawl. Which is utterly hilarious.

    I take comfort in my assumption that if a poll were taken around the league of who the best franchises were, we'd finish a bit higher than 15.
  3. blackhawk

    blackhawk First Round Draft Pick

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    With ZERO titles the Phoenix Suns are rated the 5th best franchise in NBA history..who is he kidding?

    Indiana Pacers are ranked 9th? Is he counting ABA titles?

    Utah Jazz are ahead of us?


    he deducted us points for playing at a slow pace LOL
  4. blackhawk

    blackhawk First Round Draft Pick

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    He just changed it. Moved us up to 13th.

    All right! What an idiot
  5. blackhawk

    blackhawk First Round Draft Pick

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    If you give one point per number of teams in the league for years of championship, tallied the number of championships won, divided by years competing...you would get:

    1. Lakers - 5.39
    2. Celtics - 3.95
    3. Bulls - 3.59
    4. Spurs - 2.74
    5. Heat - 1.36
    6. Pistons - 1.32

    Multiply the championship points by all-time regular season winning percentage and you would come up with a legitimate franchise rating:

    1. Lakers - 3.33
    2. Celtics - 2.35
    3. Bulls - 1.82
    4. Spurs - 1.58
    5. Pistons - 0.67
    6. Heat 0.65
  6. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    No doubt. Without a championship, you shouldn't be in the top 10.
  7. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Actually, he wrote all this last year - the rankings were just updated this year. If you look at the intro, it takes you to the rankings, and "2010" is in the web address. But when you click on the Pistons, "2009" is in the address. He didn't feel the need to update the pages, just the rankings. So actually, the Pistons dropped two spots this year (as if all the sudden this year showed that the Pistons were a worse all-time franchise than Orlando and Miami).

    It's similar to the problem with his power rankings when one team beats a lousy team and drops in the rankings because it alters the opponent's record. It would be a lot more tolerable if he or ESPN acknowledged that his stats are still subjective quantitative analysis, but they don't. His stats are just a bad application of simple statistical analysis.

    :bs:
  8. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I love this phenomenon. Non-BCS teams experience this mindset a lot. If you lose to a BCS school, it proves that you suck. If you beat a BCS school, you still suck, but that BCS school must suck too if you were able to beat them.
    :bs:
  9. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    I don't think there's anybody out there that can dispute your ranking.
  10. Stun

    Stun First Round Draft Pick

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    This list completly sucks,becouse it doesn't make no real sense.Come on Bobcats better then Clippers and Grizzlies?Evan for that you can dismiss this list.Evan Orlando doesn't make sense when they were only 2 times to the finals and after that they mostly sucked.
  11. Tha Locstah

    Tha Locstah First Round Draft Pick 1x Fantasy Champion

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    The Grizz ranked 30th???? COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!
  12. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    They got docked heavily for relocation. Otherwise, they would be ahead of the Pistons.
  13. tads

    tads First Round Draft Pick

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    All this infoporn crap is almost always meaningless, where it reading too much into it will be about as useful as watching porn to learn how to pick up women. It is disappointing that ESPN puts their name behind this stuff, because it is not even scientific or reputable when it is about as accurate as some of the stuff that bill simmons says. Anyone with a brain can look at this and realize they need to either a) re-work their algorithm, or b) scrap the excel spreadsheet and get some fresh air.

    The Phoenix Suns? They lost to the celtics in the 70's, the lost the bulls in the 90's, and this current era will be maybe slightly more relevant than the Nets under Jason Kidd, except Nash won some MVPs.

    The Utah Jazz? They choke repeatedly, just cause they show up in the playoffs a bunch doesn't mean they are great. Kevin bacon shows up in a lot movies, but he's not on anyone's list for greatest actor.


    The Orlando Magic? Their franchise history is basically warming up superstars before they go elsewhere, guaranteed they won't retire the number of any of the players they mention in the article.

    There is already a commontly accepted list for which franchise is the best (here). If he's trying to create some formula for this he must be attempting to revise history so that winning matters less. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is winning, Hollingers "formula" is nothing more than commentary.
  14. blackhawk

    blackhawk First Round Draft Pick

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    you'd think sustained success (all-time winning %) along with meteoric success (championships) are good indicators of franchise success.

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