2007 PF.com Fantasy Football Talk

Discussion in 'Fantasy Sports Central' started by jammertime, Aug 21, 2007.

  1. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    don't worry Bill, you aren't alone. Darth did the same thing to me in week 3. 141-131.

    he somehow gets his guys to have good weeks against the top competition.
     
  2. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Thanks, Webz. I feel much better now.
     
  3. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Hey, I feel good too. I made sure we have no more winless teams.
     
  4. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    last week to trade guys, NOV. 6 !!!
     
  5. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    There have been some comments about some teams are lucky and others have had some bad luck. For example, last week my team put up 140 points and still lost. My son won one week and the score was 47-45.

    So, the question is "Who has experienced good luck and who has been dealt with bad luck?".

    First off, here are the current standings:

    1. Ookie 9-0
    2. Darth's Spartans 7-2
    2. Jammer's Time 7-2
    4. webz wreckerz 6-3
    5. Woody's Marauders 5-4
    5. Laimbeer's Lions 5-4
    7. Bup-Bups-BomBs 4-5
    7. Footballers 4-5
    9. Winless Bruisers 3-6
    10. Bezeach Blitz 2-7
    11. Ozarkruffriders 1-8
    11. Dynamo 1-8


    Next, we have the teams sorted by total points scored:

    1. webz wreckerz 1016.94
    2. Darth's Spartans 986.94
    3. Jammer's Time 958.82
    4. Ookie 950.98
    5. Bup-Bups-BomBs 892.08
    6. Woody's Marauders 885.52
    7. Laimbeer's Lions 844.84
    8. Winless Bruisers 770.28
    9. Ozarkruffriders 692.64
    10. Dynamo 677.50
    11. Footballers 672.44
    12. Bezeach Blitz 657.78

    Now for the crude analysis, simply comparing the standings based on win-loss versus total points:


    These teams have experienced BAD LUCK:
    webz w/most points, but only in 4th place
    Bup-Bup w/5th most points, but only in 7th place
    Oz w/9th most points, but only in 11th place


    These teams have experienced GOOD LUCK:
    Ookie w/4th most points, but in 1st place
    Laimbeer w/7th most points, but in 5th place
    Footballers w/11th most points, but in 7th place
    Bezeach w/12th most points, but in 10th place


    YOU GUYS ARE ABOUT WHERE YOU BELONG (win-loss standing, points standing):
    Darth 2nd, 2nd
    Jammer 2nd, 3rd
    Woody 5th, 6th
    Winless 9th, 8th
    Dynamo 11th, 10th


    Conclusion: WebZ is better than his 4th place standing indicates. Footballers is worse than his 7th place standing indicated.
     
  6. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Thanks for the review. However, I knew my team stinks without having someone else confirm it.
    :MusicBigGrin:
     
  7. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Excellent analysis Bill. I remember back when I was 1-3 but was still first in overall points. Darth once mentioned to me this was a reason why football was his least favourite fantasy sport, and I think that makes sense. But I guess it's that unpredictability that makes it interesting as well.

    Another analysis is to look at the score it would have taken to win each particular week. ie. Woody lost to Laimbeer 88.65-96.43. Therefore, it would taken Woody 96.44 points to win that week. Add all these totals together over the season and you'll get an idea who has had lucky matchups regardless of whether they won that week or not.

    In order of least amount of points needed to win.
    (total-average-actual position)

    1. Footballers - 764.47 (84.94) -8th
    2. Woody - 786.65 (87.40) -5th
    3. Bezeach - 800.94 (88.99) -10th
    4. Ookie - 810.83 (90.09) -1st
    5. Jammer - 812.23 (90.24) -3rd
    6. Winless - 822.83 (91.42) -9th
    7. Bup-Bup - 825.53 (91.72) -7th
    8. Darth - 833.25 (92.58) -2nd
    9. Laimbeer - 846.65 (94.07) -6th
    10. webz - 868.09 (96.45) -4th
    11. Dynamo - 916.11 (101.79) -12th
    12. Ozark - 921.24 (102.36) -11th

    Looking at this you can see that on average per week, Ozark has needed to score 102.36 points just to score a win. Same with Dynamo, he has had to score over 100 points as well. So sure, you could say they have been the most unlucky, but you can't put that ALL down to luck because they are still only in 11th and 12th place.

    Now look at Bezeach. You could say his team has underachieved because despite having the 3rd best time of things, is still only in 10th with 2 wins.
    Footballers has had the best of it, only needing on average 84.94 points to win each week. That's 17.42 points less than Ozark to pick up a win. Another underachiever in only 8th place.

    If we were to rank the teams in order of position difference between score needed to win and actual position it would look like this.

    webz - 10th-4th (+6)
    Darth - 8th-2nd (+6)
    Laimbeer - 9th-6th (+3)
    Ookie - 4th-1st (+3)
    Jammer - 5th-3rd (+2)
    Ozark - 12th-11th (+1)
    Bup-Bup - 7th-7th (0)
    Dynamo - 11th-12th (-1)
    Winless - 6th-9th (-3)
    Woody - 5th-2nd (-3)
    Bezeach - 10th-3rd (-7)
    Footballers - 8th-1st (-7)

    Darth and webz are well ahead of the pack in terms of overcoming bad luck and adversity having +6.
    Bezeach and Footballers have not performed despite having very good luck with -7.
    So even though Ozark has had the worst luck in terms of score needed to win each week, he still has not performed as well as some other teams.
     
  8. Woody

    Woody All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Your analysis is interesting, but flawed!!

    It doesn't take into account INJURIES!!!

    Where would Darth be if Peterson got injured in the second game and was out for the season??? MY best runner, Ronnie Brown, went out for the season in the fourth game.

    What would happen if Brady or Manning went out for the season?? Delhomme, my backup QB, went out in the second game.

    Other teams have lost good players. The luckiest are the ones whose best players have made it through the season so far. The final result will probably be based on whose injury record is the best. The whole thing is a crapshoot!

    :stirthepot::stirthepot::stirthepot:
     
  9. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    :p_welldone::cheerlie-GOAL::party:
     
  10. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    We can also look at how each team is doing against their luck.

    Score needed vs Actual score
    Ookie - 90.09 - 105.66 (+15.57)
    Darth - 92.58 - 109.66 (+17.08)
    Jammer - 90.24 - 106.53 (+16.29)
    webz - 96.45 - 112.99 (+16.54)
    Woody - 87.40 - 98.39 (+10.99)
    Laimbeer - 94.07 - 93.07 (-1.0)
    Bup-Bup - 91.72 - 99.12 (+7.4)
    Footballers - 84.94 - 74.71 (-10.23)
    Winless - 91.42 - 85.58 (-5.84)
    Bezeach - 88.99 - 73.08 (-15.91)
    Ozark - 102.36 - 76.96 (-25.40)
    Dynamo - 101.79 - 75.27 (-26.52)

    That actual +/- doesn't mean much except to each individual but I guess you could say Darth has the best rating in what could be described as "creating your own luck".
    Because despite having the worst luck, Ozark and Dynamo aren't exactly helping their cause by only scoring in the mid-70's.

    If everyone was to have Ozark's luck and need to average 102.36 every week to win, only these teams would be in a position to succeed.

    webz - 112.99
    Darth - 109.66
    Jammer - 106.53
    Ookie - 105.66

    That said, if everyone received Footballers luck and only needed 84.94 points to win each week, these teams still aren't scoring enough points to succeed.

    Bezeach - 73.08
    Footballers - 74.71
    Dynamo - 75.27
    Ozark - 76.96

    There you go. Some teams are luckier than others, but as is still and forever will be the case, the luck card cannot be used as an entire excuse for a poor ladder position.
     
  11. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Somewhat true. Perhaps you'd like to do your own analysis Woody. Seriously, I would be interested to see if you could come up with some research or numbers or ratings to work it out. It's probably impossible though.

    But the injury thing is something that can be handled by excellent GM's. It is something that could have been planned for on day 1 - The Draft

    Q. Did the Ronnie Brown owner also own his handcuff?
    A. If they didn't handcuff their best RB - no sympathy from the experts

    Q. Did the person draft enough backup's to take into account injuries based on position?
    A. If they only drafted 2 RB's - no sympathy because it is an injury-prone position.

    Q. Did the person draft an injury-prone player who ended up getting injured?
    A. No sympathy from anyone on this.

    While injuries are never going to help a team, it's not just a cut and dried thing of who gets the least injuries wins.
     
  12. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I've done better than last year, but out of the playoffs.
     
  13. jammertime

    jammertime Starter 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Wow, you guys have WAY too much time on your hands to be doing all of this analysis! :MusicBigGrin: Having said that, I have thoroughly enjoyed reading it!

    I agree with your last post Webz, and would also add Bye Week Management into that draft planning.

    Injuries can be a huge factor and can make or break a season. Some of it is bad luck, some of it is poor planning/depth. I've been lucky on the injury front other than at the WR position. I've been without my top WR, Andre Johnson for the last 7 games. Santonio Holmes has missed 1 game and back at the beginning of the year when I had him on my roster Eddie Kennison missed 1 game. None of my players at any other position have missed a game yet (knock on wood). Winslow had a dislocated shoulder in 1 game and missed the 2nd half, but that's it.

    I'm not a huge fan of the head-to-head format to be honest with you. I think it can be very unfair and misleading. I much prefer a straight up points format where we compare apples to apples.

    Who's the commissioner of this league anyway, I want to file a complaint! :gun1:
     
  14. Darth Tater

    Darth Tater All-Star Forum Donor 6x Fantasy Champion

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    Great analyses by Laimbs & Webz. Very interesting and well thought out. :p_welldone::thumb[1]::hail::hail::hail:
     
  15. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It sounds like you're getting desperate, sending an email to my kid asking him to combine your two teams in a bogus trade effort in an attempt to beat the system.
     
  16. Darth Tater

    Darth Tater All-Star Forum Donor 6x Fantasy Champion

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    I really hope that isn't true.

    I'd like to believe that we all would show integrity...plus encouraging a little kid to cheat...is just wrong. :tsk:
     
  17. jammertime

    jammertime Starter 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I've been in dozens of fantasy leagues over the years and I can easily say that I've enjoyed PF.com leagues the best because of the dedication, integrity, high level of competition and camaraderie of the members involved.

    I don't enjoy leagues where every single trade is scrutinized and the motives of each member are called into question. I've been in many of those types of leagues and it sucks.

    Seemingly "unfair" or "unbalanced" trades happen in real life sports all the time. My feeling is that as long as both parties enter into the agreement with the right intentions, a trade should be allowed to stand, regardless of who supposedly "won" the trade. Because every GM in the league has a vested interest in the outcome of every trade (especially in head-to-head leagues like ours), it can sometimes skew our opinions of what constitutes a "fair" trade. If the guy you're matched up against next week suddenly gets better as the result of a trade, or the team you're chasing for the last playoff spot improves, that isn't necessarily unfair, it's just unfortunate.

    I've been in leagues where teams intentionally "dump" their players to friends through lopsided trades, release highly ranked players and otherwise attempt to sabotage or skew the league results if their team isn't doing as well as they had hoped, if they're bitter about one of their trades being vetoed, etc. That ruins the league for everyone. In this league, such an attempt would be blocked and the GM(s) involved would be locked out.

    I'm not saying that is happening in this instance. All I am saying is that I won't allow it to happen if a situation does arise. I enjoy our leagues, and respect each of you too much to allow that to happen.

    I understand that it's possible to lose interest (especially if your team isn't doing to great), or that situations come up that prevent us from being able to continue our participation.

    I ask that if something like that does come up, or if you suspect "foul play", to please send me a PM so that I can address it.

    I look forward to continuing to kick your butts the rest of this season!

    Commissioner Jammer Roger Goodell Time
     
  18. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    desperate times call for desperate measures.
    how does it feel knowing your sons team sucks?
     
  19. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    My son is having a blast in his first year of fantasy sports. Having fun is what games are all about.

    Even more important, at the age of 13, it appears that my son is already more of a man than you will ever be.
     
  20. Darth Tater

    Darth Tater All-Star Forum Donor 6x Fantasy Champion

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    That's low. Please...let's not go there...
     

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