2009 Salary Over & Under

Discussion in 'Pistons and Basketball Articles' started by dba, May 17, 2009.

  1. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The method is the same as in years past...

    1. Compute Sprocket Points for each player
    2. Sum Sprocket Points and salaries across all players
    3. Divide to compute league wide salary dollars per Sprocket Point produced ($4,647)
    4. Multiply each individual player’s Sprocket Points by $4,647 to compute their justified salary – what they would have been paid if salary were based purely on performance

    The columns shown in the tables are…

    Games – games played in the 2008 / 2009 season
    Actual $ - 2008/2009 salary
    Justified $ - salary based on performance
    Justified Gap – difference between what was paid and what was earned
    82 Games $ - justified salary assuming all 82 games were played
    82 Games Gap – difference between what was paid and what was earned eliminating injuries and DNPs


    The Pistons

    The first table below shows the data for the Pistons players. Both Stuckey and McDyess should have earned significantly more than their salaries. Maxiell was worth $2.7mm more than he was paid, but note that next season’s $5mm would not have been fully earned. Max has to step up next season to justify the new contract.

    Iverson, Wallace, and Hamilton were paid much more than they were worth, to the tune of nearly $26mm. Even without injuries the trio would have been overpaid by more than $20mm. If both Iverson and Hamilton had played all 82, Iverson would have outperformed Hamilton in value by over half a million. Even discounting the injuries Hamilton didn’t earn his money this year, and will need to improve his performance and health by 80% to justify next year’s new contract. A healthy Wallace ought to command a salary in the $7mm to $9mm range next year, $14-16mm over two years might be a good deal.

    [​IMG]


    The Over Achievers

    The table below shows the thirty most underpaid NBA players, most are breakout players still on their first contract. Chris Paul jumps to nearly $14mm next season, still below his value this season of over $17mm. David Lee has one more year at $2.7 but is worth much, much more. Millsap may be the biggest value in the league, earning less than $800k but contributing nearly $10mm in value. Granger jumps to $10.2mm next season, a value he will need to be injury free to earn.

    [​IMG]


    The Under Achievers

    Below are the thirty most overpaid NBA players. Many are on this list because of injuries, though even the 82 games numbers are negative for all except Boozer. So, even if McGrady or Garnett would have played all 82 at the level at which they performed in the games actually played, both would have been overpaid by more than $10mm. On the other hand, a healthy Boozer would have almost exactly earned his salary.

    [​IMG]


    Other Players of Note

    The best – The top five players by earned salary were James, Paul, Howard, Wade, and Gasol – not a bad starting five. Only James and Paul had an earned value over $17mm, even though thirteen other players had a salary exceeding that.

    Ben Gordon – 82 games justified salary of $8.3mm, but someone is going to pay him a lot more next year

    Zaza Pachulia – 82 games justified salary of $5.6mm, but will be looking for more

    Glen Davis – 82 games justified salary of $4.4m, but significantly outplayed that mark after Garnett went down. It seems highly unlikely the Celtics will be able to hold onto him after this playoff run

    Ron Artest – 82 games justified salary of nearly $9mm, but will someone pony up that much?

    Lamar Odom – 82 games justified salary of $10.6, well down from his $14mm current salary. How much of a cut is the free agent willing to take? And can the Lakers pay him and Ariza who will be looking for a significant increase.

    Andre Miller – 82 games justified salary of $11.1, above his contract ending $10.3 for this season. Philly needs him, but will he resign for the same or less?

    Grant Hill – 82 games justified salary of $8.2mm and paid less than $2mm. He could definitely make a difference somewhere, and might sign for the vet minimum.

    Shawn Marion – earned less than $10mm of his $17mm+ salary, and took a serious reputation hit in the process. It’s hard to imagine anyone will wager more than $10mm on him, but it’s also hard to imagine his ego will accept that. Can you say Europe?


    Sources:
    Stats - Doug's NBA & MLB Statistics
    Salaries - Storyteller's NBA Salaries
     
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That says that Jason Kidd has a higher justified salary than Kobe?


    Rookies really get screwed on the salary limits btw.
     
  3. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    That also says don't re-sign AI or Sheed and try to trade Rip.
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Or sign Sheed for less than $7M/year.
     
  5. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

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    That makes Sheed worth about 5 million next season, considering his age..
     
  6. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Afraid so.


    And yes. Rookie contracts are probably too long.
     
  7. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    It's interesting to me that KG and Tim Duncan are among the most overpaid guys in the association. Nobody ever questions those dudes production relative to the $$$ they earn.

    Thanks for posting this dba! -very informative.
     
  8. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    From a purely on the court viewpoint, nobody is worth the $25mm KG gets or the $20mm Duncan pulls down. Of course, they do some other stuff too, like put butts in seats, sell jerseys, etc.

    Partly it comes out that way because the numbers are so big. Only a few players can have $10mm+ gaps since most don't earn that much to start with. Another way of ranking is the percent of salary earned on the court (justified divided by actual). In that ranking...

    KG - earned 35% of his salary on the floor, could have earned half if he had played all 82. I hope he sold a lot of shirts.

    Duncan - earned 67% of his salary on the floor, could have earned 73% if he had played all 82.

    Of all the guys who made over $17mm (i.e., basically more than anyone should have been paid based on my analysis), they earned 45% of that from their on the floor pay. They would have earned 52% if they hadn't been hurt and had played all 82.

    Nowitski, Duncan, Kobe, and Kidd were the best of the big salary group.
     
  9. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    Oh yeah, of course!
    I absolutely agree!

    I'd even go farther to say that nobody is worth 1/4 of that.
    It's freaking basketball, not finding a cure for cancer!
     
  10. detteam

    detteam All-Star

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    Productive rooks obviously get screwed but I guess there has to be a weeding out period...aka Lebron vs Darko. Draftees are like a box of chocolates...you never know what you're gonna get. Sucks that good rooks sorta subsidize vet salaries.

    Thanks for the info dba :)
     
  11. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    No, you do that with post docs who are lucky to get $20k.

    Of course, curing cancer hasn't worked out all that well.
     
  12. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    P.S. There are a handful of perfectly paid guys, having earned on the court a salary within 1 or 2 percent of what they were paid...

    CJ Miles
    TJ Ford
    Kyle Korver
    Caron Butler
    Darius Songalia
    Tayshaun Prince
    Malik Allen
    Ron Artest
    Charlie Bell
    Marcus Camby

    Close were Iguodala, Nene, Oden, Okur, Wallace (G), and Miller (Andre).
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If you don't think any player is worth more than x because it's basketball, then you have to realize that the savings will go directly to the owner.

    If an owner agrees to pay a player $20M/year, then it's because the owner thinks the player is worth at least that much. It is entertainment and the players are what makes people pay $50 for a small uncomfortable seat and fork over $10 for a macro brew beer.

    They could be juggling, ice skating, telling jokes, singing, throwing a ball through a hoop... it doesn't matter what they're doing out there as long as people want to watch it. And we should know, because we are mega-fans (I would say anybody who regularly posts on a forum is in the top 1% of fans).
     
  14. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    On the other hand, was it still worth it for the team to overpay for them as opposed to losing them to a team that would overpay, and miss the chance to win a championship?
     
  15. Tha Locstah

    Tha Locstah First Round Draft Pick 1x Fantasy Champion

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    :nod::thumb::good::fingerscr:peace:

    I don't care if we don't do anything big this offseason as long as we do exactly that.
     
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    dba, can you email me the spreadsheet for this data please? :)
     
  17. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Winging it's way through the ether...
     
  18. Darth Tater

    Darth Tater All-Star Forum Donor 6x Fantasy Champion

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  19. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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  20. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Isn't it funny how everyone ignores the group that funds most of the money out of their own pockets (tickets, merchandise, etc), and is the driver for the rest of the money to flow in (TV contracts, endorsements, etc)? These groups seem to think they operate in a vacuum, that whatever they do, the fans will continue to support them. Big, huge, disastrous mistake.
     

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