2010 Draft Watch

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by KGREG, Jan 13, 2010.

  1. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    I'll throw out another possibility. Perhaps one of the teams ahead of us in the draft will trade #1 picks for Tay (and balancing change).

    Utah, for example, ought to love a guy like Prince.
  2. 2Tough4You

    2Tough4You Bench Warmer

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    No one would trade a top 5 pick for Prince alone.
  3. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    If we wind up with the 7th to 9th pick I wonder if Joe would consider trading the pick for seasoned pg or center or just taking a chance on a collegian?
  4. 16 Mile

    16 Mile Bench Warmer

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    I think Joe should be fired, I think he's afraid of having a top 5 pick.
  5. 16 Mile

    16 Mile Bench Warmer

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    I wouldn't be surprised if Joe traded the 8th pick for Bonzi Wells, though I don't know if Shanxi Zhongyu would make the trade.
  6. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    So we're locked into 4,5, 6 or 7 in the draft (barring a ping pong miracle or complete weird ping pong debacle). Right now we're 6th, and if we take care of business by losing tonight to Minnesota we've got a decent shot at tying for 5th or maybe even 4th.

    Chad Ford's draft slottings have Wesley Johnson joining Turner, Cousins and Favors in the "top 5" slotting, and Aminu, Davis and Cole Aldrich as "top ten" slotted, and Vesely, Monroe, Whiteside, MontieJunas as "Lottery" slotted.

    I've got absolutely no idea of who we'd want in the draft given where we're picking, but it seems likely we're ending up with a consensus top ten guy, if we want him.

    Given the makeup of the Pistons, and the big logjam at SG, I wonder if one of the teams in front of us would take Rip as part of a trade package to swap 1st round picks, if Joe D wants to go after a guy who won't fall to us otherwise.
  7. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The worst team hasn't received the #1 overall draft pick in the last 5 years. Teams that drafted #1 and their regular season finish:

    2009 - Clippers - 2nd worst
    2008 - Bulls - 9th worst
    2007 - Portland - 6th worst
    2006 - Toronto - 5th worst
    2005 - Bucks - 6th worst

    As the 6th worst team, the probability of getting the #1 overall draft pick (John Wall) is 6.3%. It doesn't seem likely, but you never know...
  8. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    We could easily be drafting in the top 5. That is why the position of regular season finish doesn't really tell us a whole lot.
  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The worse you finish, though, the better your chances at a top pick.

    If we end up as the 6th worst team, we couldn't get the #4 or #5 pick. Here are the probabilities for our draft pick:

    1st - 6.3%
    2nd - 7.1%
    3rd - 8.1%
    6th - 43.9%
    7th -30.5%
    8th - 4.0%
    9th - 0.1%

    So, the chance of a top 3 pick is 21.5%.
  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I didn't know we can't get the 4/5.

    Still, a 21% chance at the top 3 is awesome.
  11. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    I think that for the Pistons, picking 4, 5, 6 or 7 is pretty much the same thing.

    Assuming Wall, Turner and Cousins are 1/2/3 - I don't see a player in this draft that is so much better than others we will have the opportunity to select at our spot. The truth is we need a big center. And we don't need a SF and I don't think we need to be drafting a PF project, since we've already got young PF's that need to be developed. Personally, I have high hopes for Summers at that position.
  12. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I wouldnt count on Summers being back next year.
  13. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    I can see the possibility of any of the 3 rookies being packaged in the right trade (but those would have to be significant trades with real talent flowing back to us).

    But aside from that, I see no chance that Summers won't be back and on the team next season. He's shown quite a bit of ability in the limited chances he's had - and the Pistons reportedly like him a lot.
  14. lapiston

    lapiston Team Captain

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    Historically, if you are not drafting 6 and under, you probably aren't going to get an impact player keeping in mind no high schoolers can be drafted nowadays. That is why those recent wins were so counterproductive. Look back at the drafts: top ten and top five carry a world of difference in terms of impact. The NBA draft is not incremental.

    JJ and Daye are two of only a very few keepers on this team. If the Pistons were to get really lucky and get a Wall, every front court player including Stuckey would be expendable as you rebuild around a real impact player. Who wouldn't take Wall and say start over? But that means, deep down, one knows that what the team at present not moving forward on a solid basis. The Piston have no impact player presently.

    If no Wall, Bengo and Stuckey (you give him one more year to try and find a jumpshot) stay along with Daye and JJ. You bring back BenW.

    Tay and Rip are still fine players but must be dealt. Hopefully, something of value can return. Otherwise, the team may well be worse. It is not at all clear that next year will be better or worse. A lot depends on that draft, first of all.
  15. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    We're realistically looking at a 2011-12 strategy, since we're a young team, about to get younger with the impending trade of Tay (no way he's on our team past the trade deadline), younger still with the impending trade of Rip (who becomes VERY tradeable by 2011 summer at the latest - since he's an expiring contract going into the 2012 year (2013 is only partially guaranteed), and because Ben Wallace doesn't have much time left and we're bound to get even younger at the center position if we draft a big man this year.

    We're a heavy favorite to be way out of the playoffs and deep (high up -VERY premium pick) into the lottery in 2011.

    But I don't want this to sound gloom and doomy. I don't know if we have a superstar on the roster, I used to think Stuckey could be one but he'll really need a huge breakthrough to be an elite player. Still, I believe he could develop into as valuable a player as Brandon Roy - that level of star in this league, not a top player but the next level. I see Daye as having that type of potential as well. I think JJ is on his way to having an excellent career - possibly a Robert Horry level impact. I think Summers can be a fine PF in this league, although I'm not sure he'll develop into the rebounding force that position usually needs. Bynum could be one of the best backup PG's in the league. Gordon is a prime scorer in this league. And CV still has a chance to be a fine asset - although he's probably got 1 more year to prove that he "gets it."

    Finally, we should add a major asset with our draft pick, and with the Tay and Rip trades.

    That's a lot of assets for a team that won't have a good record next season, and which will be looking at a primo pick in the 2011 draft. As I see it, unless the plan goes badly (terrible misses in the drafts - lousy value back in the key trades) or players get crippled up, we'll be poised to be seen as one of the up and coming teams by the end of the 2011-12 season. The plan will clearly include finding and/or developing defensive impact players - especially at the power positions. It should be hard for offense only players (e.g., Gordon and CV) to stay on the floor if they aren't giving great effort on D -- it SHOULD be that way, anyway.

    My hope for next season is that we make smart acquisitions and trades, and that the young core we have next season develops and learns to play the right way.
  16. jayborne

    jayborne Bench Warmer

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    That's a very optimistic view of things Brap. Brandon Roy came into the league with a discernible skill that he's used to get to the level he's at. Stuckey doesn't have that.

    I'd with Roscoe on Summers, I'd be surprised if he stuck around. Don't really see anything special in his game, and I've thought him a SF since I saw him at Georgetown. And with JJ as our best young SF going forward, and Daye as the project SF, I see no real use for just a decent player at the same position.

    I'd prefer Wall, Turner, or Cousins, but I'd also settle on Favors. He'd project as our best big man next year. I really just want some hope in this team, a reason to think there is a direction this organization is going in other than downward.
  17. tads

    tads First Round Draft Pick

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    I am really having fun thinking about the chance of detroit winning the lottery and going after one of the bigger draft picks, but if we get a second iteration of Darko it will not only lead to Joe D getting fired, but suck up valuable cap space. We need to get will bynum signed this year and Stuckey the next, we don't really need to spend money on some project that doesn't pan out.

    More over, we aren't planning on sucking next year. If we were able to draft John Wall or Turner, they better be comfortable with not getting a lot of touches. And without touches some players will never develop. If we get top 3, part of me wants to ditch the pick, or do a draft day trade, so we don't have to see whether or not wesley johnson or evan turner can handle the pros. John wall seems like he is for real though, I can't see the pistons doing enough trading to give him enough minutes. If we get rid of hamilton and stuckey, He still has to compete with bynum and gordon for minutes.

    As far as big men go, none of them are really projected to go top 3 except Couzins. Couzins has emotional issues that might not pan out well for someone who may not get as many minutes as they like, or the calls they like, or the touches they like, etc.

    If we get lucky enough to win the lottery part of me says we should just trade the pick and prevent another Darko.
  18. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    Very good point about the limited number of touches. We already have a bunch of guys who ought to get and who need to get lots of touches. Wall would be handed the reigns, I think, so it wouldn't be a problem for him, but any other scorer we get aside from a low post center, won't see diddly for a long time.
  19. tads

    tads First Round Draft Pick

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    Espn combined their mock draft with a lottery simulator to make a prediction about what players some teams will get. Unfortunately, it looks like we won't get what we want, every time I do it we pick 6th or 7th.

    ESPN - 2010 NBA Lottery Mock Draft
  20. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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