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8 Months Later Monroe or Cousins

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by armygirl, Feb 5, 2011.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Do you think it's a fact that Amir Johnson is very much outperforming Monroe this season?

    Amir- 18.55 PER
    Monroe- 16.92 PER
    Cousins- 14.79 PER

    If Monroe can say Cousins who? Then Amir could say Monroe who?

    I never mentioned PER in my analysis and didn't even attempt to make the argument that Cousins is better. I just mentioned that since he has higher stats in almost every measurable category, it is a tough to flat-out conclude that Monroe is the stud and he's a nobody.

    Also, it's tough to use the fact that a guy isn't a go-to player to favorably compare him to someone who is. That's like saying that Kobe scores a lot, but that's only because he's the center piece of their offense. Well, maybe he's the centerpiece because he has a higher efficiency in that role than another player would.

    Monroe and Amir are both effiecient right now in the garbage man role. They get offensive rebounds and easy put backs. They don't take jump shots. They get tons of bunnies. If you forced the ball through either one of these guys right now and pushed their usage up to Cousins' level, you'd have some pretty poor FG percentages I would imagine. Monroe can at least pass, but his .241 FG% outside the paint is going to make his teammates groan if the coach starts designing plays to get him J's.

    Having said all that, Cousins is rather inefficient.

    Here's a troubling stat though. Detroit is currently last in the league in that painted area near the basket. http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/11/4/diffeff

    On offense, we're 28th in the league in terms of scoring in the paint.
    On defense, we're 27th in the league in terms of stopping others from scoring in the paint.

    A starting center has to be a big influence in this area.
     
  2. 2Tough4You

    2Tough4You Bench Warmer

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    Amir is like in his 6th (or is it 7th?) season. Monroe is a rookie. Amir has been in the league a long time and he still doesn't have much of an offensive game outside of garbage buckets. I'm willing to give Monroe some time to develop his offensive game. He's already probably made more successful scores in the low post than Amir did in all of his time here.
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    We seem to be arguing about different things.

    My point was that if you are going to ignore all of Cousins production and base an opinion on PER, then I'm showing an example that would probably make you rethink that. Amir is clearly a garbage man and his PER is higher than both these guys.

    I could have also pointed out examples like Boykins having a higher PER than Stuckey, or Bynum having a higher PER than Jason Kidd. Chauncey's is higher than Rondo's, Austin Daye's is higher than Shane Battier's, etc.

    I'm not disregarding the stat, but it's not enough to ignore pure production. Even if they feed the ball to Cousins more often, that doesn't help Cousins get more rebounds and blocks. Monroe has a marginal edge in steals (about 0.2 per 36 min), he turns it over less (and assists less often), and he fouls less. He's just not as involved in the game when he's in there. As the initial article that spurred this discussion mentioned, he doesn't make many mistakes. But then again, he doesn't have the ball very often, so it's hard to tell what he can do.

    Cousins is a mistake prone producer. Monroe is a mistake free player role player so far. I'm not picking one over the other, just saying that Cousins is doing fine for his draft position and his rookie year performance so far. No need to tear him down to make Monroe look better.
     
  4. 2Tough4You

    2Tough4You Bench Warmer

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    Yeah, but Boykins only plays less than 17 minutes per game, and Bynum similiarly plays a lot less than Jason Kidd.

    With Monroe and Cousins, we are comparing players who get comparable minutes, but not comparable touches.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    You don't have a better PER if you play less minutes. It's a stat that takes time out of the equation (it's also adjusted for pace).


    Do you think Sacremento would trade Cousins for Monroe right now? He is their scoring leader, their rebounding leader, 2nd in blocks, 3rd in steals, and he has more than 100 FT attempts more than their next player.

    He has more points and rebounds than any other player from last year's draft and is #3 in assists. That is #1 pick type production.
     
  6. 2Tough4You

    2Tough4You Bench Warmer

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    Yes, but you don't typically maintain efficiency as you play more minutes.
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Amir Johnson's PER has increased as his minutes have ramped up:

    2009: 14.7 MPG, PER was 13.5
    2010: 17.7 MPG, PER was 16.7
    2011: 26.3 MPG, PER is at 18.5

    Same with Afflalo:

    2009: 16.7 MPG, PER was 8.9
    2010: 27.2 MPG, PER was 10.8
    2011: 34.7 MPG, PER is at 13.6


    At some point it would probably decrease if the players go into fatigue territory, but you need to get into a flow as well. I'm guessing that a lot of the guys with low minutes and high PERs are just low sample size issues, or garbage time phenoms (playing against poor competition).
     
  8. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    Thorpe has Monroe as the 2nd best rookie in the league this season. PER is PER - it's one measure that takes subjectivity out of the analysis when comparing players.

    I'm NOT knocking Cousin's talent. I AM knocking Cousin's J.R. Rider factor - which is really high. I continue saying that Cousins might have the higher upside - might.

    But he just isn't performing as well this season as Monroe.

    And there's no way on earth I'd draft Cousins ahead of Monroe. Mental cases should be avoided at all cost. I'm delighted with Monroe, and see great things from him as I project this in the future.
     
  9. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    PER might not be subjective by nature but the use of it is when you cherrypick. Monroe is a good player with a bright looking future and looks like a good pick but he doesn't become any better by pretending he's a top 15 center already.
     
  10. pistons_team of SFs

    pistons_team of SFs Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    doesnt matter what you guys are talking about pistons still suck......:yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison::yellowprison:
     
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'd take Monroe over Cousins too by the way.
     
  12. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    Here's a rough PER post-November statistic. I recall that Monroe's PER through November was something like 8.5. He was awful, and that covered 16 games. His PER is now 17.28, over 66 games. When I do the rough math, (17.26*66 = 1100.48 minus 16x8.5=136, that leaves 50 games for 1004.48) I get that he's had a 20.08 PER since November.

    He's been outstanding for a rookie. But what's really nice to think about is that I think he's very capable of a hell of a lot more.
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Maybe we can pick Rambis up as a coach and he can install the triangle in the D.
     
  14. Brap

    Brap Starter

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    I'm guessing you're being wry, still...

    I'm no BB strategy expert, but Monroe's skills seem perfect for a triangle offense.

    I also believe that the 4 core guys for the future who are already on this roster --- Monroe, Daye, JJ and Stuckey --- really ought to be a highly complimentary group. Maybe Gordon can resurrect himself as well - that guy's crap play is a total mystery to me, but playing on a team with a great high and low post passer like Monroe, and a super penetrator like Stuckey ought to be great for sharpshooters like Daye and Gordon.

    I believe not trading Prince and McGrady was a setback for the franchise. (We're losing both of them for nothing this summer). I'll say the same if we don't trade Rip at next season's trade deadline. We should be able to draft a really good big man to fit into the frontcourt rotation. So things don't seem so dire to me, as I really like the core, and believe we're now building around an all-star caliber big man.
     
  15. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    If Faried goes late first-round, we will regret not trading Prince to Dallas for what could be his pick. I already do just thinking about it.
     
  16. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Well, one bright spot in this miserable season has been Greg Monroe's improvement. Thought I'd provide a visual of how he's been progressing over the year. His rebounding has relatively stayed flat since January, but it's really nice to see the upward trend in both the FG% and FT%.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Cool Walt. Monroes improvement has certainly been the brightest spot during this dark season. I listened to the NBA Today podcast on ESPN.com a few days ago and Ryen Russillo (the host) and David Thorpe (NBA analyst) claimed GM should have been the second pick in the draft if todays info would have been available at the time.
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    No, I'm being serious. Monroe is really limited athletically, but he has great awareness, poise, and a high level of coordination. I think the triangle would potentially maximize his strengths. He's supposedly a great passer, but we aren't getting value out of him currently in that area. We're getting value because he doesn't turn it over very often, but we can do better than that. If he's going to be a building block, then let's put in a system where he's featured.
     
  19. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    You mean like when Joe value Tay so high, he didn't need to draft no stinking Melo or even that future Wade/Bosh combo monster?
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Melo doesn't play defense. He'll always be a high scoring player who hogs the majority of the salary on a team that can't get over the hump. I'd rather have Tay at his salary level than Melo at his salary level.

    Would have been nice to have Melo under that rookie contract though as a 6th man.

    Would you want Melo on the Pistons right now with the following commitments?
    2011: $17.1
    2012: $18.5
    2013: $19.5
    2014: $21.5
    2015: $23.5

    Owed $80M more after this season?

    The Knicks also have Amare Staudemire on almost an identical schedule. So, $47M in payroll in 2015 with only 2 players comprising that.

    That's more than the entire Sacremento Kings roster makes this year with 16 guys on the payroll (and Dalembert getting $12.2M of that).
     

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