Amare/Lewis for Bosh/Jackson trade thread

Discussion in 'Fantasy Sports Central' started by webz, Jan 27, 2009.

  1. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Ok, so this ended up being a longer explanation than I thought, so I created a thread for it. If you want to discuss it, please do it here.

    Phew, ok so here we go.

    Firstly, my opinion of the Yahoo rankings is I think they are flawed and should not be used as the only source for judging a trade. Examples? Fine.

    Q. Which player is currently ranked ahead of Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, Manu Ginobili, Paul Pierce and Steve Nash?
    A. Delonte West

    Q. Which player is currently ranked ahead of David Lee, Pau Gasol, Andris Biedrins, Shawn Marion and Rasheed Wallace?
    A. Paul Millsap

    Now, you'll struggle to find anyone who would trade any of those players straight up for Paul Millsap or Delonte West (regardless of injury or opportunity). Yet, the rankings suggest otherwise.

    Opinion is just that. Name recognition does not win fantasy championships. It's the Stats that never lie.

    For the trade at hand, let's look a little deeper. I'm going to start with one player that's being overlooked and something you probably don't know...

    For players in the league that average at least 19.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 6.0 ast, 1.0 3pm and 1.0 stl per game - there are only 3.

    LeBron James
    Joe Johnson
    Stephen Jackson

    Throw in at least 0.5 blocks per game and you can delete Joe Johnson from that list. Pretty elite company...
    Maybe you want someone who also shoots at least 80% from the line. Well, you can scrub out LeBron's name...

    Now what do you think of Stephen Jackson and his reprehensible Yahoo ranking of 85? :bs:

    Ok, so you've figured out I'm ignoring FG% and TO's. And that's where Jackson's weaknesses are, I'm not disputing that. But in my mind TO's are a dud category. Chances are (and history shows), if you are in the bottom half of Turnovers you aren't likely to win anything.

    Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Yao Ming, Caron Butler, LeBron James... They're the league leaders in Turnovers. Are you going to pass on one of these guys because of that? Hardly.
    Guys who have the ball in their hands are going to turn the ball over, and in case you didn't know, Stephen Jackson runs that Golden State team. The same team that scores the 2nd most points per game in the league.

    Case in point, I'm currently in first place (not trying to gloat).
    You know what category I am dead last in (and by a very long way)?

    Yep, Turnovers.

    So that leaves FG%, which isn't great at just under 40%, but find me one player that doesn't have at least one weak category. Linwood's team is currently 2nd in our league in FG%. He has the team to absorb that weakness.

    To be continued... (and I haven't even gotten to Amare yet.)
     
  2. Warthog

    Warthog Bench Warmer

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    i'm cool with whatever...i ain't scared of you cats!
     
  3. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Now let's look at Chris Bosh (sorry Ralphie).

    He is the definition of consistency. The past doesn't predict the future but we still use it to try to foresee the future.

    Here are his numbers per calendar month:
    November - 26.4 points, 10.2 reb, 2.4 ast, 0.6 stl, 1.0 blk, 54% and 82%
    December - 20.6 points, 9.6 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.6 blk, 44% and 80%
    January - 22.5 points, 9.5 reb, 2.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.1 blk, 51% and 78%

    Season averages
    07-08 - 22.3 points, 8.7 reb, 2.6 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.0 blk, 49% and 84%
    08-09 - 23.3 points, 9.8 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.9 blk, 50% and 80%

    Those are numbers you could set your watch to. You know what you're getting and you can rely on it.

    He was a first round pick and he has kept his end of the bargain. The same cannot be said of...

    Amare Stoudemire.

    Here are his numbers per calendar month:
    November - 21.9 points, 7.8 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.4 stl, 1.4 blk, 56% and 84%
    December - 21.5 points, 9.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.8 blk, 53% and 83%
    January - 19.5 points, 6.3 reb, 2.3 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.1 blk, 49% and 81%

    Some alarming trends happening there. In particular, points, rebounds, steals and blocks.

    Season averages
    07-08 - 25.2 points, 9.1 reb, 1.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 2.1 blk, 59% and 80%
    08-09 - 21.1 points, 7.9 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.1 blk, 54% and 83%

    Let's compare Bosh to Amare straight up:
    Season
    Bosh - 23.3 points, 9.8 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.9 blk, 50% and 80%
    Amare - 21.1 points, 7.9 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.1 blk, 54% and 83%

    Anyone see any huge disparities?

    Perhaps you'd like to compare the more recent stats:
    January
    Bosh - 22.5 points, 9.5 reb, 2.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.1 blk, 51% and 78%
    Amare - 19.5 points, 6.3 reb, 2.3 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.1 blk, 49% and 81%

    One thing you'll notice is Amare's rebounding numbers. Pretty low. If you compare them to his season average of last season you'll see that he is down nearly 6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.0 block and FG 10%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but those are the stats you draft Amare for. It's safe to say he is in a funk.
    You still want to use those Yahoo rankings? Well, they don't support his cause either. They rank him 121st over the past month.

    So why is he in a funk? It's hard to say.
    1. Maybe it's because Shaq is relatively healthy, playing well and he is taking away from Amare's numbers? - He has played 35/42 games this season
    2. Maybe it's because of a change in coach and system and it doesn't suit his game as well? - He wouldn't be the first Phoenix player to say that
    3. Maybe it's because they have more scorers and playmakers now? - Replacing Raja Bell in the starting lineup with Jason Richardson is big upgrade. (Richardson attempts twice as many shots per game throughout their careers.)
    4. Maybe it's two microfracture surgeries that are catching up with him?
    Maybe it's a combination of all those. Either way, Amare is the perfect buy-low candidate right now. And luckily for me I'm in a position to be able to take that risk. Linwood doesn't have that luxury of waiting to see whether Amare will find his form again before the end of the season. His playoff chances are becoming slimmer by the day. Amare not living up to his draft position is probably a key ingredient why.
     
  4. FreshPrince22

    FreshPrince22 Bench Warmer

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    ......
     
  5. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The final piece of the puzzle is Rashard Lewis. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot to discuss here as I think the main problem people might have would be to do with the other 3 players.

    Basically, his numbers are very similar to Jackson, but he gives me better 3pm and FG%, while I give up Assists. I am very strong in assists (league leader) so I think I can afford to give up Jackson to gain in those other 2 categories.

    To sum up, it doesn't matter which way you break down the stats, if look at the stats and not just the names, you'll see the trade is very even.

    I don't know Linwood's motivation for wanting to do the trade, but mine is purely trying to buy low on Amare in the hope he will break out of his current slump. I'm in the position to be able to do so. If it doesn't work out it may cost me a championship. If it does, it may be the master stroke.

    In Linwood's corner, he needs help right now if he has any chance of making the playoffs. Bosh and Jackson are playing well right now. Maybe he has been trying to trade Amare already and this is the best deal he's got so far, I don't know.

    Just one thing that irks me in fantasy leagues in general - just because you're at the top of the standings, should that automatically mean your trades are more heavily scrutinised than others? Should that mean you forfeit your right to make trades? My success means I cannot have fun with the other aspects of playing fantasy such as trading? Why is it only the bottom teams that are allowed to 'improve their teams' without question? It's human nature I know, but I don't like it.

    I know I've gone beyond what anyone else does when they explain their trades, but I enjoy my fantasy sports and I've got nothing to hide. I hope you enjoyed my analysis!
     
  6. detteam

    detteam All-Star

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    My two cents. I think it safe to say that our league is somewhat imbalanced already. While I can appreciate you wanting to make your team better, I hope you can appreciate that some of us think your team is pretty darn good to begin with and don't want to see it get even better.

    I don't know Linwood's motivation for this trade either. Trends or not, by the season numbers this deal only gets him more assists...but he gives up FG%, FT%, 3PT's & TO's. I don't see how this deal helps his playoff chances.

    As for trends...looks like Amare is breaking out of his 'slump'...22pts, 15rebs & 3 blks last night.
     
  7. Darth Tater

    Darth Tater All-Star Forum Donor 6x Fantasy Champion

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    I've got to go to work in a couple minutes, so please excuse the lack of eloquence here...

    I still think it's a terrible trade for Linwood. That being said, the trade, IMO, was made in good faith by both sides so I should have kept my mouth shut. I sincerely apologize for ever bringing it up. I broke my own cardinal rule.

    Webz, you have a great understanding of fantasy sports. I agree with many of your points about "name players" and good teams being highly scrutinized. I still believe only you & Wart have legitimate shots at the title...but now your team is not only better, it is injury proof. Two great managers and that's how it should be.

    Good luck to all.
     
  8. Warthog

    Warthog Bench Warmer

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    i honestly don't even know how i've been doing so well with only 1 move all year, and even now keeping a guy like steve blake through injuries (or a guy like amir who isn't consistent). i guess it proves that good drafting goes a long way, because i haven't even been following trends or trying to add/drop a lot of players.
     
  9. TWOTIMESRALPHI

    TWOTIMESRALPHI Team Captain 3x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Wow, you did a whole lotta work for that; in my opinion, it's best to compare the additioned stats of each pair of players and take current trends and team's needs into the account; given that, I think the trade is fair and can go through. And I acceppt your excuse for turning into gold what I gave you for a suddenly injury- prone and struggeling Marion; I added him via trades twice and both time ended up as the loser of the trades (last time I traded him was in exchange for Chris Paul!).
    Seems like I'm not learning from my mistakes :doh:
     
  10. detteam

    detteam All-Star

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    Maybe confidence in a playoff spot makes managers more forgiving...
     
  11. linwood

    linwood All-Star

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    He was in a slump when I made the trade. Bottom line for me was that Ama're was in a slump next to a healthy Shaq while Bosh has been very consistent. Jackson is the wildcard. With Rashard and Ama're I am no where close to the playoffs. Maybe Jackson goes nuts and Bosh continues his trend of excellence and I squeak in. Doubt it, but it's worth a try.
     
  12. detteam

    detteam All-Star

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    Glad to hear your side of it...thanks.

    My two cents again...Shaq staying healthy is a bigger wildcard since Porter has resumed playing him B2B.
     
  13. jammertime

    jammertime Starter 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Wow, I had no idea there was such a debate over this trade!

    I have absolutely no problem with it.
     
  14. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    We weren't even sure you were still alive jamandtoast.
     
  15. jammertime

    jammertime Starter 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Things have been incredibly busy for me of late. I still check in here daily, I just haven't had much time to post a lot.

    Speaking of checking things out, this is awesome.
     
  16. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Thanks Jammer.

    When there are studs involved there is always debate. :nod:
    Debate can be fun, I certainly had fun preparing my speech for first chair. I learnt a lot of things about Stephen Jackson. :laugh:

    If the trade was Rafer Alston for Udonis Haslem I can't say too many people would care (and rightly so).
     

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