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Atlanta Hawks Feb. 11th, 7:30 PM

Discussion in 'February 2009' started by Dlev59, Feb 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That was pretty glaring. The only thing I could think of was that once Rip saw him open, he calculated that it was too late to throw the pass. He also probably imagined Maxiell getting fouled an figured that throwing up a 30% shot was better odds than having Max go to the line.
     
  2. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    that's cool. sorry to hear it. perhaps you need an assistant, perhaps there's some dean at rackham who doesn't have much to do and could crunch the numbers for you??
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Following up on my previous point, here is how all our bigs guard their man.

    Amir:
    Gives up 6.9 free throws on 16.5 FGA's per 48 minutes.
    So, 3.45 fouls per 16.5 attempts = 21% foul rate.
    eFG allowed: .430
    Total points allowed from his man= 19.5/ 48 min.

    Dyess:
    Gives up 7.6 free throws on 15.7 FGA's per 48 minutes.
    So, 3.8 fouls per 15.7 attempts = 24% fouls rate.
    eFG allowed: .530
    Total points allowed from his man= 22.5/ 48 minutes

    Maxiell:
    Gives up 5.9 free throws on 15.2 FGA's.
    Foul rate = 19.4%.
    eFG allowed = .492
    Total points allowed from his man = 19.5/ 48 min.

    Sheed:
    Gives up 5.0 free throws on 15.6 FGA's.
    Foul rate = 16%.
    eFG allowed = .481
    Total point allowed from his man = 18.9/ 48 min.
     
  4. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I don't really disagree with you on Amir's value. I'd just like to see him on the court some more to see once and for all if he can sustain that level playing real starters minutes. Should Curry pull him after two fouls per half? - don't know, but he's been pretty consistent about doing it, so maybe the kid just needs to figure it out and get himself under control.

    No, he's not fouling intentionally, but that still doesn't make many of his fouls smart, i.e., not dumb. I think it was the first one last night - Amir chasing his man across the floor, no one else even in the camera shot, man stops, and Amir runs right over him - no reason for it other than clumsiness, no positive value to it. He helps the other team get into the penalty, and provides a reason, whether reasonable or not, for the coach to pull him.

    Geez Amir, you got to learn to channel the aggressiveness if you want to play 30+ minutes. You have to control it, not the other way around. In my opinion, whether that happens will more than anything else determine his future in the league.


    True, after all, you know lit folks, so quant. :nerd2:
     
  5. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    Please see my "too much free chili/ Use your darn fouls" post.

    If we are not going to foul someone waltzing down the lane...? I admit Amir still has to figure out where and when to use some of his but I still don't understand why he is not allowed to play after getting 4 fouls?
     
  6. lpgrl26

    lpgrl26 Bench Warmer

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    The way we look on the floor with Amir and his + impact on the team don't support your view that he "blows".

    And it's not about building around Amir. Amir happens to be on our team. He happens to be a young guy on our team. If you feel we get more out of the rebuilding process by playing the Vets the requisite 35+ a game, i don't see it. Generally, when you're rebuilding the point is to find out what you have. Since Amir is no going to get us Tim Duncan, it might be wise to throw him out there and let him succeed or fail (for the sake of this forum as much as the team)
     
  7. lpgrl26

    lpgrl26 Bench Warmer

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    These are great. Makes me feel not so nuts for my opinion on what i see on the floor.
    I don't know if i would call it learning to control his aggressiveness. While some of his fouls are of the stupid variety (although i believe they call absolutely everything on him for some reason; he has rookie status to the 10th degree), i would argue that alot his fouls are a product of our bad defense. Like stated above, the difference with the other bigs is they just let the opposing player score or simply choose not to foul.

    The only big we have that has a great of mix of knowing when to foul and still play good defense is Sheed. And even in that aspect, he gets away with contact b/c of his reputation.
     
  8. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    as a lit person, i can't help but notice the interesting slip: quant for quaint. We may well be quaint, but perhaps you wish we were more "quant" (a non-word in English calling to mind the Latin roots of quantitative (quantum, meaning "how much")? Quaint, incidentally, has its roots in the old french cointe, meaning cunning, and from in the Latin cognoscere, meaning "to know".

    'nuff said.

    p.s. I'm guessing that a certain quaint lit person we both know is riding pretty high today after UNC's beatdown of duke last night.
     
  9. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    And I think this is all we "Team-Amir" fans are looking for? He has a positive impact on the game when he is on the floor, he's only 21 years old, he is aggressive and energetic and he is on the squad.

    Let him sink or swim but don't limit his minutes because of his aggressiveness. I see complaining posts all the time on here about the team not being hungry, motivated or whatever. Here is a guy that is motivated and willing to jump over or through guys to get a rebound for the team. Nobody else besides Max shows that willingness.

    I don't think he will ever make an all-star team unless he really, really, really works on his offensive game but right now he can get a rebound and defend. Let him do it. He will figure out the foul thing with more playing time.

    Every championship team needs a role player that is willing to go after the ball wherever it is and try and stop the other team from scoring even if it results in a foul.

    Think Perkins, Powe, Ben, Varejo, etc. These players HELP their team win by doing the little things. We have that player on our roster and elect not to use him to the fullest extent. Instead we get the diminishing returns from Sheed and Dice from riding them for too many minutes consecutively.
     
  10. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    They're not limited because of his aggressiveness. They are limited because he gets 3 fouls within the 1st 18 secs he's on the floor. If he could produce a fouls per minute avg less than the speed of light, he'd play more.

    (Exaggerations should be obvious)
     
  11. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Shhhhh - I'm not sure she knows.

    No slip, satire. You know, as in quant-jocks, from one of those heavily quantitative MBA programs, or from a heavily quant social sciences program. Them what do research for the purposes of getting data to play with and model rather than research to expand the bounds of human knowledge.
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Twice this year, his PT has been limited by the NBA's 6 foul rule. The rest of the time, it has been limited by MC.
     
  13. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    How many times has his PT been limited by that little rule that puts the other team in the bonus once a 5th team foul is commited in a quarter?

    Maybe MC is reluctant to see the other team racking up points from the free-throw line.
     
  14. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    But he fouls his man less then Dice yet Dice is getting the time???

    Posted by TaS at 1 p.m. today:

    And consider this. Amir's "usage" is the lowest on the team. That means that we involve him in less plays than any other player. Even so, Amir gets more production than the man he guards this year.

    In terms of fouling his man, here is how Amir compares to Dyess.
    Amir:
    Gives up 6.9 free throws on 16.5 FGA's per 48 minutes.
    So, 3.45 fouls per 16.5 attempts = 21% foul rate.

    Dyess:
    Gives up 7.6 free throws on 15.7 FGA's per 48 minutes.
    So, 3.8 fouls per 15.7 attempts = 24% fouls rate.


    Not only does Amir foul his man less, but he also holds him to 43% shooting while Dyess holds his man to 53% shooting.

    So that can't be the reason??

    All I am looking for is a valid reason why one of our most productive players is not being used more?? That's all I want.

    I know stats can lie but it seems he brings everything that the coach and fans keep saying we are missing??? :confused: And we can't get a valid explanation of why.
     
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That is absolutely the best argument against Amir's non-shooting fouling that I can think of.

    I guess the way that I'd test it would be to look at:

    How many free throws against us are bonus related in the 1st and 3rd quarters in games where Amir plays (i.e. non shooting fouls that result in free throws, excluding one's where we'd be in the bonus anyways b/c of the rule where the 2nd foul under 1 minute puts you in the penalty anyway)? How does that compare to the NBA average?

    Maybe MC has that data and he's making an uber sophisticated moneyball-like decision to optimize our performance based on his findings... but based on his crappy end game decisions, I'm guessing that he avoids data and doesn't have good instincts when it comes to making qualitative judgments.
     
  16. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    The point being...which is better?

    a) Sitting him down so there may be a chance to use him later (IF he is indeed THAT valuable)?

    or

    b) Letting him foul out by the 2nd qtr and just getting it over with?
     
  17. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    My comment regarding MC was 70% [SARCASM]sarcastic[/SARCASM].

    I wouldn't expect MC to have the time for analysis of this depth when you take in to consideration how much time he devotes to coming up with new starting lineups.
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It depends. If he is a critical end-game player, then saving him for the end-game situation could be critical. I don't think Amir fits this category. Someone like Chauncey or Kobe would. Even Sheed... b/c of his defense and experience (ignoring his recent 4th quarter meltdown).

    If he is a valuable player, but not necessary for end-game situations, then it would be best to maximize his playing time by letting him foul out naturally at any point in the game. Take him out to rest him only.

    If he is a detriment to the team, then it would be best to not play him at all, or bring him off the bench as a last resord when other big men are in trouble. Herrmann fits this category.


    MC is managing Amir based on conventions that don't apply. He's used to seeing coaches pull starters to keep them out of foul trouble and he's applying the same practice here. The difference is that those coaches are pulling players that they intend to put in at the end of the game while MC is pulling a player that won't be in at the end of the game.
     
  19. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    I'm so quaint i didn't even know of the phrase "quant jocks". thanks for expanding the bounds of my knowledge. quaint of you.
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    So, are you a quaint jock?
     

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