Atlanta Hawks Feb. 11th, 7:30 PM

Discussion in 'February 2009' started by Dlev59, Feb 6, 2009.

  1. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    Which leads us to this :frusty::fingerscr:swear2::gaah::granade: when we try to figure out what in the ---- Curry is trying to do as the coach.
     
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    How many teams in the league have a finishing lineup that is different than their starting lineup?

    The ones that I can think of are teams with great 6th men (SAS, CHI).

    Even before we demoted Rip to the bench, we were starting Amir, but not finishing with him.

    I can understand the logic in that: Dyess is older and needs limited minutes + he can be used to smooth out the scoring between the starters and the bench. Also, he should have more experience in end-game situations and can make smarter plays at the end based on the situation at hand.

    So, I'm OK with that. But I'm not OK with managing Amir based on his fouls. Especially when we have a suitable duplicate of Amir in Maxiell that we can plug in when Amir fouls out and provides many of the same attributes (but with statistically worse overall results).

    Based on these issues, I would say that having Amir foul doesn't really matter at all... except for the fact that we lose his service and give the other team free throws in the process.
     
  3. CloudWalker

    CloudWalker Bench Warmer

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    Body banging? Are you serious? That's about as much of a joke as claiming Don Knotts was intimidating as Ralph Furley. He fouls opponents and they easily play through his paper thin frame. Now you're attempting to portray him as an enforcer. This is getting ridiculous.


    But you can tie the hands of your teammates after you've left the quarter with two early fouls by
    • setting the tone with the refs. He doesn't play defense with his feet. All he does is clutch and grab. The refs start scrutinizing us after half a quarter of staring at his garbage.
    • Unduly putting us in the early penalty. Hamilton's off the ball grab on Mo Evans late in the first should have been sideline out of bounds. Thanks to bonehead fouls like those Amir commits it results in two points.
    Too much free chili when he's in. When you want to see the truth roll back to the first quarter of last nights game and watch how passive Amir becomes after foul number 2.
    He refuses to so much as be in the play for layups and dunks that only he was there to contest. For fear of getting his third foul he gives up score after score at the basket.

    Then consider why you didn't notice this the first time you watched.

    It's those love goggles.
    I want him to put a body on somebody. And keep it there. He gets pushed around easier than a hot wheels race car on a polished wooden floor. Guards slide past him, forwards walk through him. Dennis Rodman was everywhere on the floor and managed to be one of the best defensive rebounders in the league. That excuse is flimsy.
    I thought he was double teaming the ball handler. Now Scotties beamed him into the paint?

    Come on man. The love is getting out of control. This picture you're painting of Amir by himself fighting the whole opposing team down in the paint like a scene from 300 is just too much.

    And far from true.

    This is the stuff I'm talking about. This kid has grown men and women dashing reality to the side of the road to board the great space coaster of fantasy land. They aren't even coming up with this fiction in hindsight. The are literally ignoring reality and supplanting it with visions of some kind of defensive beast/paint enforcer.

    I seriously hope Joe trades him soon so another team can expose him like Darko was exposed after he left Detroit and TeamDarko swore we'd pay.
     
  4. CloudWalker

    CloudWalker Bench Warmer

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    It is amazing that no one else has noticed 6FOULS penchant for becoming passive on defense after his second foul of the half. He shows defensively but avoids contact like the plague, which usually results in bad things for us on the defensive end of the floor.
    The coach can't help but pull him when he starts playing like that.

    We can turn this into a chicken and egg argument but the bottom line is he should do what any other successful player in this league does and quit trying to rely on his hands and stupid fouls when he's on the floor.

    MC was trying to pound this into his head during summer league folks (when he was getting used in the paint by random summer league no names). We have the video to prove it. He just won't quit.

    That means we increase his minutes to 30 (at the expense of more deserving players). Play him until he fouls out.

    ....what?
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Cloud,

    while Amir is in the game, rebounding is not a problem for us. If Amir was so bad at it and we still manage to outrebound our opponents when he's in the game, then you'd think we would REALLY outrebound the opponents when he's out. In fact, quite the opposite happens. We get outrebounded as a whole when he's not in the game.

    Free chili. If he's so flimsy and commits bad fouls, runs around like a chicken with his head cut off, then you would think that we'd really give up a lot of points when he's in the game. However, a strange thing happens... the team gives up the fewest points when he's in the game. How can this be? Why can't other teams' starters take advantage of this easy 5 on 4 opportunity?

    This "love affair" didn't start when we drafted the guy late in the 2nd round with no hype. It didn't start because we think he's handsome. Maxiell is way more exciting to watch, so it isn't that either. It is a pattern that has developed in the stats that has appararantly caught the attention of us and the powers that be in the Pistons organization. You have the coach claiming that we "need" Amir out there and that he does things nobody else on the team can do.


    The one argument that I think has potential merit is that Amir's fouls inch us closer to the penalty and that in turn hurts the team after he has left the floor. If that is the case, then his on the floor numbers will look better and other guys' on the court numbers will suffer.

    My estimation is that this is not that big of an effect, but let's take a look. Besides Amir, the players on the Pistons average a foul every 13 minutes, so about 1 per quarter. Amir will average about 2.2 per quarter and he'll be pulled after 2. So, we're talking about 1 foul extra on average per quarter with Amir in the game. So, assume that gets you to the bonus 1 foul earlier than it would have been otherwise.

    Now, if you look at 82games' study on the state of the bonus, here is what you find: It shows the points allowed per 100 possessions while the team is in each state.
    [SIZE=-1]#[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Team/ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]4 Fouls left/ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3 Fouls left/ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2 Fouls left/ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]1 Fouls left/ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]In Bonus[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Detroit/ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]101.9........../ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100.8........./ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]101.5........../ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]102.4........./ [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]102.2 [/SIZE]

    Here is how often teams generally are in each state:
    21% - 4 Fouls left to give
    18% - 3 Fouls left to give
    15% - 2 Fouls left to give
    16% - 1 Fouls left to give
    30% - 0 Fouls left/In Bonus

    So, if you take the weighted average of everything not in the bonus, then we allow about 101.6 per 100 possessions. This compares to 102.2 while actually in the bonus.

    This means that for any 1 particular quarter where Amir is responsible for putting us in the bonus, it would cost the Pistons about 0.15 points.
     
  6. max

    max All-Star

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    When we don't need a 3 thats when they are going to take it. When we do need it - thats when they go inside. It all makes sense in a Pistons ( this years ) sort of way.
     
  7. CloudWalker

    CloudWalker Bench Warmer

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    TaShawn

    The game isn't played on paper.

    Statistics can be manipulated grossly to both ends of the spectrum by ignoring one variable or another.

    There are also too many possible variables on an NBA court to isolate one man from the other nine and infer his contribution to statistics he himself doesn't personally garner while discounting to outright ignoring the contributing percentage of the other nine players on the floor.

    You know this. That's why you are so adept at manipulating stats.

    Please don't attempt to insult me by claiming I didn't see what I saw with my own two eyes simply because someone is capable of snatching one or two of many numbers from a 48 minute basketball game and attempting to imply that Amir alone is responsible for their inception, other 9 players on the floor be damned.

    I'll still prefer to watch the game. Thanks anyway.
     
  8. The Palace Artest

    The Palace Artest First Round Draft Pick

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    Seriously. Games aren't played on paper. You can make stats say anything you want them to say if you try hard enough.

    Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

    You wouldn't listen to Hollinger and his power rankings to determine the best teams in the league, would you?
     
  9. CloudWalker

    CloudWalker Bench Warmer

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    Yes.

    They would, and many do, unless it creates an emotional conflict that needs to be internally resolved.
     
  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I'm not sure what to say about this, but I want to say something. I guess I will say it all.

    1. Claiming insult is a cop-out. We can debate points of view without claiming victimhood, or being unnecessarily aggressive.

    2. As someone who has insulted you more than probably anyone else on the internet, that was weak if it was an insult attempt. No harm, no foul.

    3. I knew first that Amir wasn't as good as people thought. Or relatively early. Some people think he will still pan out. Who knows? I've been wrong before.:doh:
     
  11. CloudWalker

    CloudWalker Bench Warmer

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    I'm not claiming I felt insulted. I am merely identifying it for what it was, an insult to my intelligence masked as an attempt to insinuate that I didn't see what I saw due to some equally subjective stats.
     
  12. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    Oh man..you guys used to have some epic duels.
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Before when we were arguing about the speed limit, you wrote:

    You felt like a claim needed stats behind it to validate it then. And I agree that in many cases that is a useful exercise. Sometimes systems get so complex and as you said, there are many variables in basketball. This is mainly why I don't trust my impressions all the time. I would never invest in a stock because of how I felt about a company.

    I don't have anything personally invested in Amir Johnson. I just feel like he's helping us. If we can trade him for a better player, fine with me. All I'm doing is arguing why our starting power forward isn't the liability that you claim he is. So, I'm really not trying to shape the stats to fit my opinion. If it seems like that, it's probably that I'm pointing out stats that support my argument. With the bonus situation, I was just quantifying the effect. I had no idea how it would turn out when I dove into it.

    In the big picture here, I really don't care if I'm right or if I'm wrong. I enjoy analyzing it and welcome any further support that you can give to your claim.

    For some reason, Amir has been polarizing. Even with Curry. MC will say the best things and the worst things about it. He will nominate him starter for the rest of the year and then pull him in a huff with one missed assignment. And on this forum, there are a couple of us that think he's one of the best defensive players on the team, and there are others that think he a total liability and won't be in the league in 4 years.

    Both can't be right. So I think it is worth discussing at a level that goes beyond game watching impressions.
     
  14. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    Good discussion you two.

    I agree that he can't both be "one of the best defensive players on the team" and "a total liability."

    But if you take out the total liability part, it might just be that he is one of the best defensive players on the team and that, in fact, that's just not saying very much anymore. If that were the case, then both actually could be right (again, taking out the total liability part): he could be one of the best defensive players on a team with mostly poor defensive players and not be good enough to last long in this league.

    I don't really care much about Amir one way or another. Mostly, I've been finding it hard to feel like I can evaluate the value of individuals on this team anymore. So much of what is wrong seems (emphasize seems, subjective, I wouldn't even know how to begin to quantify it in order to balance my impression) to have to do with the relations among parts and with the ways in which those relations are dynamic and change so rapidly from moment to moment in a game; as well as from game to game. I'm not saying stats are useless or we should just throw up our hands because a basketball team and game or season are too complex from them to be useful. I think our problems, and the assessment of individual players upon which many of us base our sense of what the problems (and solutions) might be, are of a nature that stats necessarily fall short of identifying adequately.

    Sometimes impressions can be a useful way to get a handle on complexity and can work in tandem with a statistical evaluation...no?
     
  15. Patron

    Patron Second Round Draft Pick

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    Detailed stats can be manipulated and if you look at per 48 minutes or like those stats you will be mistaken. For example you could see that acker was our best player according to those stats.

    So i think per-game stats are only reliable stats.

    BTW we are placed 7th in the east now and 9th-placed NJ is only 4 games behind us. Do we need Curry for lottery pick or what?
     
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I blame G-Man. He was a bad influence. lol

    All water under the bridge now, Cloud and I are thick as thieves.
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    What you're getting at is sample size, margin of error, confidence levels, etc. The error that is associated with a sample size is quantifiable.

    It's really not that difficult to understand.
    [​IMG]an interval with fixed numbers as endpoints, of which we can no more say there is a certain probability it contains the parameter μ. Either μ is in this interval or isn't.

    By applying this to Amir's fouling, it turns out that there is a 100% chance that he is going to be in the league in 4 years.
     
  18. Patron

    Patron Second Round Draft Pick

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    OK. Let me ask you something. Who is the best player in the league now according to your stats. I just wonder it.
     
  19. NYPistonFan729

    NYPistonFan729 Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    The latter suits me.
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's easy. Matt Bonner.
     

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