Beyond toDaye

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by kpaav, Jan 3, 2013.

  1. kpaav

    kpaav Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    So, we just had a CV resurrection thread and it got me thinking about our other beleaguered player Mr. Austin Daye.

    What he is:

    A mentally fragile shooter with great form on his shot and great size / versatility. Can use length to play defense, but would never say is a defensive player. Ability and confidence go hand and hand.

    Taking away his first round draft status and past expectations, try and rate him as the piece he has become. To me, he is a definite re-sign since I value shooting as my #1 ability for guards / wings that are bench players / fringe starters.

    With that said, how much is he worth? Is he worth something to any other team?
  2. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    If he keeps up his current level of play, he is worth what we're paying him right now.
  3. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    I have really enjoyed watching him play the last few games. The almost game winning three against Atlanta followed by the chest bump knockdown is the highlight for me. He might be worth minimum for a couple of more years...nothing more.
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  4. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    He has moved from piece of garbage to piece of lint. I would sign him for 5yrs/$45 million and not a penny more.
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  5. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    I think you've answered your own question.
    Every GM in the NBA knows that the Pistons have about 4 too many SFs on the roster. If anyone was interested in Austin Daye, we would have heard about it. Nobody is kicking down the Palace door with any offers for Daye. That tells me everything I need to know right there.

    I think a great strategy for Joe to start utillizing would be to offer contracts to guys that are actually good enough to play for other teams around the league.

    DO NOT re-sign Austin Daye.
    PLEASE Joe!
  6. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Clearly a max contract player. You can't coach height.
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  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    To me, it's like the newest driver in golf. No matter how ugly it looks when you first set up with it, it becomes a work of art if it hits the ball far and straight.

    Right now, Austin Daye is striping it down the middle.

    The team has a .600 eFG with him on the court this year. It's so ludicrously high that it has to be a fluke. That is significantly higher than what the Heat do when LeBron is on the court.


    I just hope that it doesn't make the "come back to Earth" results look bad if they settle in at something respectable. A lot of us had high hopes for Daye before last season because of his clutch shooting, high percentage, and unique length for his position. Last season understandably squashed all of those hopes and solidified opinions that he is not NBA material.

    I personally find it interesting to watch. Any breakout by an unknown player or a guy who seems to be on his way out of the league is an interesting show to watch. That is why Linsanity was so captivating. With this team, we only have a few interesting story lines, so we should enjoy them.
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  8. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    If he keeps up this level of play (8.6 ppg, 5 rpg, 55% from the floor in 23.6 minutes of action) and can continue to shoot around 40% from beyond the arc (there's no way he continues to shoot 75% from three point land), I'd give him his $4M qualifying offer making him a RFA but in no way what-so-ever should Joe match an offer sheet.

    And that will be the real issue. He won't stay THIS HOT, but when he comes back down the Earth via a quasi-shooting slump, will he crash like he normally does or will he shake it off in a game or 2 or 3? Because we all know that with Austin it's all in his head!
  9. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    A Pistons legend.
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  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm not convinced that he's a mental basket case. I agree that his confidence was shaken last year, but it should have been. Nothing worse than a .200 shooter with a ton of confidence.

    He has reportedly put in a lot of work behind the scenes and has gained the trust of his coach and teammates. He has made a handful of game tying or game winning shots in his brief career. Many guys don't want to be the guy who wins or loses the game with a coin flip, but he seems to relish it.
  11. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    I'd take that $4 mil and throw a HUGE free party at the Palace. I'd hire A Tribe Called Quest and Tom Waits to play and give out tons free stuff to everyone who came! There would be hot chicks, fresh steamy White Castles and free taxis to anyone who had a little too much free booze to drink.
    ...doing all of this would contribute just as much toward winning another championship as re-signing Austin Daye.
  12. kpaav

    kpaav Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    I won't cry if we let him walk, but there is something to be said about keeping players around as assets rather than just giving stuff away. Daye has been really really bad as well as average. People say other teams don't want him, and that is probably true, but is it because he is horrible or that the 8-12 guys on a team are pretty interchangeable. Why go and make a concerted effort to pry a 9th man from a team when you can teach a guy to fill that role on your team with your players / coaching staff.

    To me Daye has meshed well with Frank and the other bench players and is being used correcly in the system we have. So, if the direction of the team needs his skill set then I think it would be a total waste to let him walk. Whom do we replace him with? To me he is a Delfino type talent, 2 years for 6 million. If we follow the course that a lot of people want and axe every one not performing to the task at hand we will have so many wholes to fill. Starting PG, SG, SF. Back-up PG, PF, C. That's a lot of turnover for a team already mired in losing, That's also a lot of optimism that these other FA signings will pan out. Especially since signing a guy to theses smaller contracts usually mean the same thing - that we now are putting are hopes in another teams Austin Daye. Either a 1st rounder that didn't meet expectations and wasn't offered contract or 2nd rounder with non existent track record.

    I suppose the question is can Joe identify the "filler" players that best suits the team. He is better with this than selecting the BIG fish free agents and draft picks.
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  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    He's doing things well besides scoring too. Career high assist rate and rebound rate. Career low turnover rate (drastic 50% reduction). Blocking more than 1 shot every 36 min (3rd on team behind Drum and Max).

    His defensive rebound rate is only slightly behind Monroe and is #3 on the team. His assist rate is twice that of Singler.
  14. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Sample is small.
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Agreed.

    Career sample size is meaningful though and still points to many of the same conclusions.

    In 3,161 minutes, Austin's block rate would put him 3rd on the team, he'd be 3rd in defensive rebounding, and he has a career average from 3-point land that is higher than Singler's average this year.


    It is clear what he does well. Shoots, rebounds, block shots, and takes care of the ball. It's a nice combo to have in a bench player.
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I seem to remember a similar line of statistical reasoning for Amir Johnson back in the day.

    If Daye turns out to be another Amir Johnson level impact player, what next? We start comparing Khris Middleton to Jerry Stackhouse?
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  17. Nemo

    Nemo The Great Predictor Forum Donor

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    He's like Stuckey. There's a glimmer of sun shine and then the rains come. Wonder if he gets headaches.
  18. copper

    copper Bench Warmer

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    as long as he continues to rebound and play defense? he is ahead of Maxiel in my book. He must continue to take the mid range shots and he seems very adept at using the glass from angle, and that is a lost art in this league. As long as he doesnt fall in love with the long ball I am willing to give him a second shot at earning a position on the team. He doesnt turn the ball over as often as some others, and he rebounds well enough to beat out most everyone else on the team not named drum or moose.
  19. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I disagree, coop. The beauty of this team is that the 2nd string guys have roles so it makes their job easier. The Pistons want Daye and CCG to shoot the long ball so hopefully that will make them shake off their poor nights.

    These guys didn't know what to do before. They had to be complete players past years because the whole roster was so bad.
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If Daye turns into Amir, I would be overjoyed. You kidding me?

    Amir is the 3rd highest paid player on his team right now. He is 0.1 win shares from leading their team (behind Calderon) at 2.5. Drummond at 2.6 is our leader. He's 2nd on the Raps in total rebounds, 2nd in steals, 2nd in blocks, and 2nd in TS%. He comes off the bench, but only DeRozen and Calderon have more minutes on the court than him this year. He has 23 less minutes on the season than Ginobili.

    Even in Daye's small sample of being absolutely on fire, he's not measuring up to the year Amir is having:

    Stat-36: AD/ AJ
    Pts: 11.9/ 12.7
    Reb: 7.3/ 9.3
    Ast: 2.2/ 2.1
    Stl: 0.4/ 1.5
    Blk: 1.1/ 1.4
    TS%: .577/ .585


    The big similarity is their on/off +/-

    Amir leads the Raptors with a +13.3 points per 100 possessions (freaky)
    Daye leads the Pistons with a +25.0 points per 100 possessions (tops in the NBA right now)


    Here are the players in the NBA with 13.0 or greater:
    1. Daye: +25.0
    2. Nene: 24.1
    3. Kobe: 20.4
    4. Metta: 19.4
    5. J. Johnson: 17.9
    6. Dudley: 17.9
    7. Noah: 17.4
    8. D West: 16.1
    9. G Hill: 15.8
    10. T Young: 14.5
    11. Chalmers: 14.1
    12. J Smith: 14.0
    13. Martin: 13.6
    14. Aldridge: 13.5
    15. Lilard: 13.5
    16. Koufos: 13.4
    17. Amir: 13.3
    18. Tinsley: 13.2
    19. Durant: 13.0
    Other Pistons:
    Charlie: 13.1, Drummond: 6.6, Knight: 3.3, Singler 3.2.... Monroe -8.9.

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