Can we define consistency?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Oct 23, 2007.

  1. KP

    KP First Round Draft Pick

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    5) He doesn't always assert himself (scoring-wise) early in the game, but he nearly always turns up his aggressivness in the scoring department as a close game is winding down.
  2. Murph

    Murph First Round Draft Pick

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    This may have already been mentioned. But when analysing production statistics, don't you have to consider mistakes also? For example, TOs, PFs and missed field goals have to be deducted from production figures.

    For example, a player that scores 10 points on 5 shot attempts is much more valuable and productive than a player that scores 10 points on 20 shot attempts.

    Also, a player that records 8 assists with 0 TOs is much more productive than a player that records 8 assists with 4 TOs.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That is sort of what I was getting at in #1. In a 40+ minutes game, it usually means that it was close, and so virtually all of those games include an assertive Chauncey. When he's assertive, he shoots more, gets to the line more, etc.

    In the games where he only gets 35 minutes, those probably include some close games where he was in at the end, but they also include a bunch of games where he sat on the bench and watched the scrubs play with a +/- 15 point margin.

    However, if he gets 40 minutes, and coasts the whole game until the end, before turning it on, his per minute production will be watered down by all the coasting.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is very important, I agree.

    I said earlier that I would like to do this analysis with Sprocket points, because that takes all those things into account. It just becomes a lot more difficult to run the numbers by just copy and pasting into a spreadsheet and applying a formula up and down the line.
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I have 2 obscure observations after playing around with the hotzone filter (link below).

    NBA.com - Hotzones

    #1) The Pistons present one of the 2 most balanced attacks in the league.
    If you select the Pistons as a team and look at the shooting for the entire 06-07 season, you will notice that we shot > 40% from all 9 regions inside the 3-point line. The only other team to do this in the entire NBA was the Dallas Mavs.

    Most teams shot < 40% from midrange on each baseline. That is a crucial gap that Rip is filling for us.

    The Cavs were < 40% in 7 out of the 9 regions.

    #2) The Pistons do get the ball inside
    We traditionally look at the stats for points in the paint. These can be comprised of dunks, layups, hook shots, pull up j's, fade aways, etc. However, it doesn't encompass most of Sheed's post moves, JMax's baseline jumpers, Rip's 6 footers, etc. When I noticed what a weak spot the zones just outside the paint are for most teams, I realized that the Pistons are truly gifted in those areas. And what is so great about being 5 feet in front of the hoop vs. 5 feet to the side? The paint has an arbitrary shape for trying to isolate "inside play."

    Another thing that made me want to look into this was hearing opposing team's announcers make the comment "that was just like a layup for Rip Hamilton" when he would make an 8 foot jumper.

    So here is the evidence. The following #'s show the FG's/FGA's/and FG% for the 4 zones on the court that are closest to the hoop for the entire 2006-2007 season. All of these zones are less that the distance to the free throw line. I ranked the teams in terms of attempted FG from inside the FT line.

    Cavs
    1,952/ 3,832/ .503

    Pistons
    1,903/ 3,778/ .504

    Magic
    1,998/ 3,759/ .532

    Spurs
    1,900/ 3,479/ .546

    Bulls
    1,717/ 3,462/ .496

    Mavs
    1,794/ 3,456/ .519

    Heat
    1,858/ 3,425/ .542


    We attempted more close range shots than any team except for the Cavs... and they have the Chosen One on their team. Notice that the Spurs, Magic, and Heat all blew us away in terms of FG%, but they did have Parker/Duncan, Milicic/Howard, and Wade/Shaq.

    So, don't be so quick to conclude that we are a jump shooting team. Maximizing overall eFG% should be the goal. We do a very good job of that and I think that the real reason is that our inside play doesn't show up as officially being "in the paint."
  6. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Very interesting. Thanks.
  7. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Hail to Flip Sr.!!!
    :gun1:
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yes, surprisingly, that is what I must conclude.
  9. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Can those stats be separated by the teams Pistons played against? I wonder what would they be like against Cavs.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yes. I didn't realize it when I first looked at that filter, but you can select different splits, including specific teams.

    So I just looked at Pistons vs. Cleveland and vise versa.

    The Pistons took 162 out of 296 shots (55%) from "inside" and shot .519
    That means that we actually made 84 FG's.

    The Cavs took 195 out of 321 shots from inside (61%) and shot .497
    That means that they made 97 inside FG's.

    The Pistons were 12 of 48 from 3-point range
    The Cavs were 10 of 50 from 3-point range


    So, both teams were virtually shut down from outside the arc. Both the Cavs and the Pistons pounded it inside. The Cavs were more persistant in this effort, but they also were slightly less efficient.
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I have a new stat for y'all.

    Weighted average age of the Pistons ON the court (WAA).

    I take the age of each player multiplied by the %age of time they are on the court. Sum all those up and divide by 5.

    For this season so far, the WAA is 28.52 years.

    For the 2006-07 season, it was 28.92 years.


    So, even though our core has all aged by a full year, we have effectively become a younger basketball team on the court.


    I wanted to come up with a stat that showed the true age of a bball team. Taking the regular average is misleading because a team could have guys like Hunter and Davis skewing it up, or Samb and Blalock skewing it down.


    I don't have time to do other teams right now. Maybe later.
  12. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Really cool stat. You are the king of these imaginative stats. And they are not really wacky, either, just original. And I think this age one is very important and a very good indicator of how well the rotations are working.
  13. brofmfa

    brofmfa Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    Greart point, and I thought WTA (weighted total age) is already good enough to creat an imagination as long as they have common denominator.
  14. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    That's a really good way to look at age. Percents are percentage of total team minutes played?
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Percents are %age of game time that they played.

    So, if Chauncey plays 48 minutes of a regulation game, then his percentage is 100%. That is why I divide by 5.

    The reason I did it that way is because 82games.com gives that %, so it was easy to pull. If I did % of total team minutes, then I wouldn't need to divide by 5.


    I've seen the stat for average team age quite a few times. Usually, the conclusion is that Championship teams tend to be a bit older. But they also have a lot of bandwagon ass cats who jump on board to get a free ring, and who don't necessarily play very much.

    Feel free to calculate WAA for another team. Excel makes it pretty easy to do.
  16. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    Your stats will change significantly once Hot Rod starts playing.
    :hoops:
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I hope so.

    The stats are a little artificially low so far though, b/c Afflalo got 2 starts when Rip was out, Murray has played in CB's place, and Amir has been filling Dyess's minutes. So, with Dyess and Billups in + Stuckey, it could go either way.
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The Spurs WAA comes in at 30.34 years old vs. 29.62 as their arithmetic mean. The reason is that they have two 21 year olds on the bench that don't get that much time. Washington (20%) and Mahinmi (5%).

    They must be the oldest team in the league from a true average and the weighted average standpoints.

    The Orlando Magic come in at 26.4 vs. a true average of 27 (Bo Outlaw skews is upward). Probably the youngest good team right now with Howard, Nelson, Dooling, Turk, Arroyo, Bogans, Lewis, and Ariza getting the bulk of the minutes and all being in their 20's.

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