Crystal Ball: Bench Minutes and Stats

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by roscoe36, Oct 4, 2007.

  1. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Folks, take a hand at predicting the bench minutes and stats (per game) for the following players.

    Nazr Mohammed
    Jason Maxiell
    Jarvis Hayes
    Rodney Stuckey
    Amir Johnson

    Should be a fun exercise. Remember this is per game, we can safely assume many of these guys won't play all 82 games.

    I'll go first.

    Nazr Mohammed, 9 MPG, 4 PPG, 2 RPG
    Jason Maxiell, 18 MPG, 8 PPG, 3 RPG
    Jarvis Hayes, 14 MPG, 8 PPG, 1.5 RPG
    Rodney Stuckey, 14 MPG, 8 PPG, 1.5 APG
    Amir Johnson, 10 MPG, 6 PPG, 3 RPG
     
  2. pass99

    pass99 All-Star Forum Donor

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    Naz.......15 mpg, 6 ppg, 5 rpg
    JMax......23, 9, 5
    Hayes.....8, 3, 2
    Rodney....8,3,1
    Amir.......10,4,3
    Murray....14,6,1

    Naz, Murray and JMax will be the main trio off the bench inconclusive of the starting five.
     
  3. max

    max All-Star

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    Tough excercise.

    If they are serious about limiting the starters then it will open up a lot of mins. I will say Sheed will be limited to 30 and Dyess to 24 so the frontcourt reserves will see a lot of PT.

    Stucky 22 - 14 PPG, 4 APG
    Johnson 24 - 15 PPG, 6 RPG
    Maxiel 18 - 9 PPG, 5 RPG
    Hayes 15 - 7 PPG, 2 RPG
    Nazir 10 - 5 PPG, 5 RPG
    Murry 8 - 3 PPG,
    Afflalo 5 - 2 PPG
     
  4. round

    round All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion

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    not picking on you.... just picked this as the last one in the group of mins... if everybody looks at the number of mins you are listing then you are saying all our starters will be playing under 30 mins a game. i just don't see us going to the bench that much

    just using your numbers.... 102 mins for the bench per game that leaves 28 mins per starter... as much as i want the starters mins cut, its not going to go that far.


    here's my guesses (as they will be playing by the last 1/4 of the season)

    stucky 18 mins
    johnson 20 mins
    maxiel 15 mins
    hayes 12 mins
    murrey nazir afflalo all under 10
     
  5. max

    max All-Star

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    It does not necessarily have to add up since not everyone is going to play in all the games.

    Overall if Sheed plays 30 and Dyess 18 that leaves 48 mins left over. I had Amir and Maxiel totalling 42 with 6 mins left over. Sheed has been playing less than the rest of the startes and I don't see Dyess shooting up to much more than he has been playing even if he is starting. Flip said something about Dyess starting and being avail for 4th quarter mins during close games. If Dyess starts he will not be playing starter mins. Especially with his slow starts.

    Figure also that Maxiel and Amir will probably see spot some time at SF and also figure in injuries as Sheed and Dyess rarely make it though a whole season without an incident.

    In the backcourt its going to be challenge for Flip to limit them to not more than 30 MPG like Dumars said he wanted to see last summer. Thats going to leave 36 mins for Stucky and the rest of the guards. Hayes may also see some time at SG. And we also have 18 MPG to fill at SF.
     
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Whenever we talk about minutes, we think of a schedule that applies to each and every game.

    A coach could also keep players fresh and motivated by varying the minutes from game to game in a systematic way (so that players can prepare).

    For instance, it would be cool to have JMax start once in a while. Same with Amir. Give starters rest on occasion by moving them to the bench unit. It would build comraderie, versatility, it would give the starters rest, and the bench players confidence.
     
  7. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Many indicate that AJ would get more minutes than JMax. This is going to be interesting to watch. I would assume that at the beginning at least, JMax would get more, especially since he already played and contributed. Also, Murray being in such a tip-top shape may prompt Sr. to give him more burn to either show that he can contribute or to showcase him for a possible trade. And a lot depends on how the kids are going to perform right out of the gate. That would probably determine the minutes, along with the opponent, for the foreseable future.
     
  8. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Only a few brave souls? Come on folks, speculation is our medium!
     
  9. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Alright, I'll take a stab at it:
    Total minutes = 240
    Starters @30min/game = 150
    Reserves min/game = 90

    Stuckey - 20 min - 11 pts - 3 ast
    J-Max - 20 min - 8 pts - 5 rbs - 1blk
    Amir - 15 min - 7 pts - 6 rbs - 1blk
    Hayes - 15 min - 6 pts - 2 rbs
    Nazr - 10 min - 4 pts - 4 rbs
    Flip - 7 min - 3 pts - 1 rb - 1ast
    Afflalo - 3 min - 1 pt - 1 rb

    This output may be a bit too optimistic, but if our bench can average 40+pts we should be in a great shape.
     
  10. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    I like this thread.

    Having said that I think I will defer my predictions until the all star game break or later (seems like cheating to me)

    Well it may be, but to me the minutes question for the bench players and starters as a result, notwithstanding any major injury or injuries which hopefully we won't have, depends on how well the 2nd unit players play defense.

    JMax improved his defensive skill appreciably last year over his rookie year and as a result got more minutes especially in the last 20 - 30 games of the year.

    Hayes defense is a bit of an unknown as different people who saw him play with the Wiz have different opinions about his defensive skills.

    The other 3, Hot Rod, AJ and AA, while they have been touted by some, including myself, as pretty good defenders, I think that we will have to wait and see what happens starting in November.

    If these guys get into a lot of quick foul trouble game in and game out their minutes won't be there.

    If they play matador defense when the ball goes up for real, then they won't get the minutes.

    I am very hopeful that eventually they will all be above average defenders. But the fact of it is is that the three are all rookies, AJ is when it comes to NBA experience, and with rookies you don't know.

    It is my opinion that their defensive skill on the court starting in November will determine to a large extent their minutes, more so than their offense, except for maybe AA, whose defense will be more than adequate, but their is a question as to his ability to score, though he still may get minutes based on his defense and the game situation.

    :hoops:
     
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If you predict that a guy will get 1 point per game and he ends up getting 2, then your prediction was off by 100%. Seems way too difficult to predict this many variables at one time.
     
  12. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Minutes / Points / Rebounds Per Game - Full 82 Game Season

    CBill - 34.0 / 16.6 / 3.3
    RipH - 34.0 / 19.0 / 3.6
    FlpM - 13.0 / 4.3 / 1.0
    Stuk - 12.0 / 3.8 / 2.4
    Lenz - 4.0 / 1.4 / 0.3
    Afflo - 2.0 / 0.6 / 0.4

    TayP - 33.0 / 14.7 / 5.5
    Hays - 12.0 / 3.8 / 2.4

    Sheed - 32.0 / 14.0 / 8.2
    ADice - 25.0 / 10.5 / 7.8
    JMaxx - 23.0 / 8.5 / 4.7
    AmirJ - 11.0 / 4.3 / 3.4
    NazrM - 5.0 / 1.9 / 1.5
     
  13. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    You could have asked people to limit their comments until more people have put out their numbers. I wonder if you can reorder the posts in a thread such that the ones with the speculation all go to the top-with the comments staying at bottom of the thread. (Or design a thread that has this feature built in?)
     
  14. 16 Mile

    16 Mile Bench Warmer

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    Nazr will get more DNPs than minutes, so I won't predict for him. As for the others:

    JMax: 20 mpg, 5 ppg, 4 rpg
    Amir: 15 mpg, 8 ppg, 6 rpg
    Hayes: 10 mpg, 6 ppg, 1.5 rpg
    Stuckey: 20 mpg, 6 ppg, 4 apg

    I really don't see a lot of production from the bench this year. JMax was a 5 and 3 player last year, don't see him improving that much.

    Amir, has a lot of hype, hopefully it's true, but we just don't know. If Amir is the real deal, JMax gets a lot of DNPs. Flip likes to play 3 big men, not 4.

    Stuckey is all up to Flip. Just read from McCoskey how good Jr. looked in practice. Wouldn't be suprised if Sr. does a Darko on Stuckey. Plays him until he makes a mistake, and then DNPs him for his pet Jr.

    Prediction, rooks don't play, Flip fired at all-star break.
     
  15. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    I believe we will have a ten man rotation, with Afflalo and Stuckey playing backcourt backup minutes, Hayes playing the backup small forward minutes, with Amir and JMAX getting all the backup minutes behind Dyess and Sheed. Although Mohammed is slated to get minutes facing bigger centers, I believe this will actually never happen, as JMAX and Amir will simply be too good to have their minutes taken away. And I believe that Dumars will fire Flip Saunders if he does try to play his starters more than 32 mintues per game. While he should just play them 30 minutes each, he will push the limit and play them 32 since he is clueless about saving legs for the playoffs. Ok, so that leaves 16 minutes for backup per position, or 80 minutes plus 6 more since Dyess will still just get 24 minutes. Thats 32 for the guards, and 54 for the front court. Although not asked for, I will guess Afflalo will play 14 mintues per game. Leaving:

    Mohammed, no minutes.

    Maxiell 20 minutes, 5 rebounds, 10 points

    Amir 20 minutes, 5 rebounds, 12 points.

    Hayes 14 minutes, 2 rebounds, 5 points

    Stuckey 18 minutes, 3 assists, 8 points

    Afflalo 14 minutes, 1 assists, 5 points

    Bench totals = 86 minutes, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, 40 points
     
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Because the posts are time stamped, it is not possible to re-order them.

    I think we're on the right track now!
     
  17. max

    max All-Star

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    Given that complaining about comments has generated more comments than the comments themselfs I will post a comment.

    Its no big deal. Thats what threads are for. Its not going to get so large that we will not be able to make sense of it.
     
  18. linwood

    linwood All-Star

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    I'm too lazy to make my own predictions, so I've decided to just pick a best fit option.

    ^This prediction is the best fit. The only changes I would make are:
    TayP -38.0/ 16.0 / 5.8
    Hays - 7.0/ 2.5 / 2.4

    Unless Hayes really shines, I just can't see Flip sitting Tayshaun longer than Billups or Hamilton. Barring a drastic change in strategy, Prince should still lead the team in minutes.

    Thanks for all the hard work, dba.
     
  19. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    I guess with all the new talk in the media about Flip being in such a great shape and Sr.'s favorite, all those minutes that we've prognosticated could be scrapped.
     
  20. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    That's surely the place I let wishful thinking shine through. I also assumed a few minutes for Murray at the three.
     

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