Detroit Draft Talk

KP · Jun 5, 2009

Re: The case for Mullens.

Action Jackson said: ↑

Though most Piston fans wretch at the thought of drafting Mullens, I think he should definitely be a strong consideration for the 15th pick. There are several factors to consider before making this pick.

Size/Athleticism:
Mullens’ coveted combination of size and athleticism is a rare commodity in the NBA and is, in large part, the reason he would have been a top 5 pick if he could have come straight out of high school. He is a legit 7-footer who runs the floor well and is a very good finisher and in transition. This particular ability should translate well to the up-tempo offense the Pistons are intent on running.

Production:
At first glance Mullens’ numbers are pretty pedestrian for someone with his obvious attributes: 8.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg.

Where is the production?

There are a couple things to consider here. The first is that he was only a freshman and he reportedly never had much high-level coaching prior to college. Consequently, his transition and understanding of Thad Matta’s schemes was rocky, at best. This was particularly evident on the defensive side of the ball where Mullens proved to be a liability. As a result, he was limited to about 20 minutes a game. Given a baseline of similar opportunity (kind of like ERA in baseball), compare him to the other top players in the draft who played the center position at a 40-minute pace adjusted baseline.

http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?year=2008%2F09&q=&per=pergame&qual=eligible&sort=6&min=20&stage=all&league=NCAA&conference=0&Compare=Submit+Comparison&pos=C&sort2=ASC&pid%5B39623%5D=39623&pid%5B8669%5D=8669&pid%5B6932%5D=6932&pid%5B10785%5D=10785&pid%5B11400%5D=11400&pid%5B11346%5D=11346

Looking at it in this way, you can see Mullens holds his own in just about every significant category except rebounding and that part of his game should be expected to improve with a better understanding of defensive positioning and responsibilities.

There are also other numbers in which Mullens excels. According to DraftExpress: "His 1.41 PPP as a finisher was amongst the best in our entire database, which backs up the perception that Mullens is an unusually gifted athlete with very solid hands. Unfortunately, he only got 3.6 opportunities to finish each game, which was far below the average for big men we looked at. Possessing nice speed for a player his size, Mullens is also capable of getting up and finishing in transition according to his situational stats, but he didn’t get all that many opportunities to do so, going 12/14 on the year."

Also: "Despite the lack of touches, Mullens had a relatively efficient year with the possessions he did receive, scoring %59.7 of his possessions, good for second amongst all centers."

Boom vs Bust:
When examining whether or not to select Mullens, it is important to consider the relative strength of the draft class and where the Pistons are selecting. This draft class is already notorious for being one of the weakest draft classes in years. Even in the top 10, there are serious questions about the viability of players being anything more than marginal starters or bench contributors. Clearly at 15 we can probably expect nothing more than a marginal starter or bench contributor if we take a more predictable player with a lower ceiling.

The question is whether or not taking the gamble on the upside of Mullens that comes with significant bust potential outweighs the risk of losing out on other mediocre players. I think you can definitely make that case. After all, how hard is it to replace mediocre talent in the NBA?

Before selecting Mullens, the Pistons will have to do their homework. They will have to answer questions about his work ethic and lack of understanding of the game. One way in which they can, to a degree, answer the former is to evaluate the steps Mullens has taken in improving himself since declaring for the draft.

Upon answering these questions, the Pistons will have to be patient and develop Mullens accordingly. He will need to be developed along the same lines as Thabeet, albeit at the NBA level instead of college. If they can do this successfully, the Pistons could have that dominant center they have been looking for for years. If not, they probably haven’t lost that much anyway.

Sounds an awful lot like Darko and Amir. Lots of physical tools, but never proven that they can produce consistently on the court. When we drafted Darko and Amir, we were supposedly in a position where we could be patient or gamble on a young, raw, talented big man. This because we had enough talent on the roster already to compete in the league.

We may now be in a different position. It looks like we're going to need what another poster recently called "floor ready" talent in order to compete for wins next year.

The argument that mediocre talent is readily available is certainly well received. I guess Joe has to determine if there is anyone available at 15 that exceeds the mediocre level. Although, signing veteran mediocre talent is way more expensive than drafting mediocre talent.

Mediocre talent that can contribute something on the court will be more valuable next year than a guy who may not be ready to get off the bench. Long term development projects have not been very successful in Detroit unfortunately.

Delfino Delivers · Jun 5, 2009

Re: The case for Mullens.

KP said: ↑

Sounds an awful lot like Darko and Amir. Lots of physical tools, but never proven that they can produce consistently on the court. When we drafted Darko and Amir, we were supposedly in a position where we could be patient or gamble on a young, raw, talented big man. This because we had enough talent on the roster already to compete in the league.

We may now be in a different position. It looks like we're going to need what another poster recently called "floor ready" talent in order to compete for wins next year.

The argument that mediocre talent is readily available is certainly well received. I guess Joe has to determine if there is anyone available at 15 that exceeds the mediocre level. Although, signing veteran mediocre talent is way more expensive than drafting mediocre talent.

Mediocre talent that can contribute something on the court will be more valuable next year than a guy who may not be ready to get off the bench. Long term development projects have not been very successful in Detroit unfortunately.

Has a long term project ever worked for any team in the NBA?? It seems to me that most players that are raw talents have always faired better if they are just thrown in the pool and forced to swim. If you look at young players in the league it seems that most don't succeed by sitting on the bench but by getting on the floor, making mistakes and learning from them.

Maybe it is a mental thing that stunts a players development if he comes out of college and doesn't get the playing time from the start.

I can't think of a player that was drafted as a "project" and flourished after significant time on the pine or D-league?

KP · Jun 5, 2009

Re: The case for Mullens.

Delfino Delivers said: ↑

Has a long term project ever worked for any team in the NBA?? It seems to me that most players that are raw talents have always faired better if they are just thrown in the pool and forced to swim. If you look at young players in the league it seems that most don't succeed by sitting on the bench but by getting on the floor, making mistakes and learning from them.

Maybe it is a mental thing that stunts a players development if he comes out of college and doesn't get the playing time from the start.

I can't think of a player that was drafted as a "project" and flourished after significant time on the pine or D-league?

Right, and I'd suggest that we probably couldn't come up with many that came into the league looking really awkward and then figured it out by getting playing time. Picking a guy that hasn't already at least been successful in college seems risky.

Most guys that become productive players are reasonably productive right from the start.

Nemo · Jun 5, 2009

I think the Pistons are bad enough now that we will be playing our long term projects.

G-man · Jun 5, 2009

One guys blog..

Some interesting information regarding a few of the players and the overall class itself.

Draft camp measurements: Where are the great athletes? | DailyHerald.com Blogs

bmill · Jun 6, 2009

Terrence Williams wants to play for us?

Terrence Williams (TheRealTWill) on Twitter

So here's my NBA dream I was drafted #7 by golden state an traded to the pistons on draft night my first points was game winner to beat cavsabout 21 hours ago from Tweetie

Latinoking90 · Jun 6, 2009

Brandon Jennings's stock keeps dropping...

alexa032 · Jun 9, 2009

Austin Daye might have a promise in the top 20, in which case he should obviously remain in the draft.

Those close to Daye claim he is saying he has a promise in the top 20. However if that's the case it's curious that he would choose to continue to work out for teams, since the usual protocol is to shut down workouts to avoid an injury and keep quiet. One thing we have confirmed is that if he indeed does have a promise, it's not at 15 with Detroit, as some have projected.

The Pistons have supposedly narrowed their list of players they are considering to four and will pick from those at 15. Jrue Holiday has impressed Detroit and could be among the four players they have in their list.

Draft Buzz | NBADraft.net

There's also the persistent rumor about Washington wanting to trade out of 5 trying to improve their cap situation.

Jumpman313G · Jun 9, 2009

I think it's really down to 2....Terrence Williams or Earl Clark (for now)
They both fill needs, and they could easily start for us next season (unlike Daye & Mullens)

pass99 · Jun 11, 2009

Jumpman313G said: ↑

I think it's really down to 2....Terrence Williams or Earl Clark (for now)
They both fill needs, and they could easily start for us next season (unlike Daye & Mullens)

If JD wants a semi-starter his first year, then Williams will do. He's another Bowen. It would take him a good solid six months to learn the super-star's moves (analytics provided by?)...then it would be semi-lock down time. I would hesitate to comprehend how Curry would motivate him, but then again, he could prove his point that defensive intensity still has a place in show-time NBA. If you can start him out right, then you would have a righteous weapon.

alexa032 · Jun 15, 2009

The Pistons have already worked out A LOT of players. They just worked out a bunch of pick 15 candidates this past week, I believe. This is hopefully going to be an active draft day for the Pistons.

CarlosGallan · Jun 17, 2009

ricky Rubio english interview
NBA prospect Rubio visits Sacramento - Sacramento Sports - Kings, 49ers, Raiders, High School Sports | Sacramento Bee
NBA prospect Rubio visits Sacramento

ShareThis
By Sam Amick

Published: Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2009 - 12:00 am | Page 6C

By the time the Kings sat at the table with Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio on Tuesday night, the tables had certainly turned.

They were the ones traveling great distances to see him last month, when Kings basketball president Geoff Petrie had gone to Spain to see Rubio in action and returned to the news that he was unlikely to be a realistic option. It was the May 19 NBA draft lottery, and the Kings' fate at No. 4 in the June 25 draft seemed to all but eliminate Rubio from their wish list.
But it said everything that Rubio set foot in Sacramento on Tuesday, arriving from Los Angeles in the afternoon after flying from Spain the day before and eventually sitting at a downtown dinner table with Petrie and other team representatives.

This was the 18-year-old's first visit with an NBA team, the man showing up and leaving the myth behind. And depending on the night's events, it may wind up being his only visit.
"I want to be a really good point guard here in the best league in the world, and I want to have minutes," Rubio said in an exclusive interview with The Bee from the Embassy Suites hotel in Sacramento. "So I have to find the team who wants me, who really wants me."

This was much more than a first date to gauge the interest level, though. With Rubio's talents and international fame so intriguing for a team badly in need of the buzz he could bring, these two days were about asking questions and getting answers before a possible match is made.
While it once appeared that Rubio would be gone by the time the fourth pick arrived, that likely has changed. The Clippers have made clear their intention of picking Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin, while Memphis isn't expected to take Rubio, and Oklahoma City looks primed to pass on him as well.

And while the Kings have worked out a number of high-profile point guard prospects, none has as much global cachet as Rubio.

He played professionally the last four years, establishing himself as a mature-beyond-his-years player who was a dynamic distributor and one-man YouTube phenomenon. After seeing him play in person last month, Petrie focused more on Rubio's leadership ability than on his pizzazz.
"I'm only 18 years old, but I'm on the court like big big man," Rubio said of his leadership skills. "If your teammates don't respect you, you can't be a point guard, so that's very important. When you are a leader, the point guard who leads your team, your team gets better."
Rubio showed his NBA potential in the 2008 Summer Olympics, producing throughout before Spain fell to Team USA 118-107 in the gold-medal game and becoming the youngest ever to play in an Olympic final.

"The Olympic game was one of the best championships that I've played before," Rubio said. "(I played) the best NBA players, and the best point guards, like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd. I learned a lot to play against them. I watched all the games from the U.S., because I want to learn from these people. I think I proved a lot in this championship."

But his situation remains complicated enough that the Kings may opt not to get involved, from the sticky buyout situation with his current team in Spain, DKV Joventut, to the fact that they may not see as much of Rubio as they want today.

Rubio's representatives initially said he would only interview in Sacramento, but the question of what basketball activities he would engage in during his visit – if any – was still being discussed while the two parties shared dinner.

Rubio still is attempting to get out of his contract with DKV Joventut. His contract reportedly has a buyout worth approximately $6.6 million that increases by $1.4 million next season. But Rubio said he is confident it would be resolved and he would play in the NBA next season.
"That's hard, but my agents are working on that," Rubio said. "I have all confidence to resolve this problem. And then, if I come here, I want to play, (because) I know that I can play here."

buffaloBRAVE · Jun 17, 2009

Pistons should just take Mullins. They need a big man and here is their chance to get one.

No comparison between Mullins and Darko except that neither one is African American. GM's can actually watch game footage of Mullins where there was none with Darko.

Darko was pure Hype with nothing to back it up - nothing!

Mullins actually has some skill, he is an athletic big man with some post moves and can even face up. Darko had 0 post game and his face up game sucked too. Mullins D is where he loses points but so do 90% of all bball players. He'll grow into that.

With Mullins at the very least you get a guy that can rebound and even get some transition points and put backs. Pistons can definately use that!

Ernie the Slow Adult · Jun 17, 2009

buffaloBRAVE said: ↑

Mullins D is where he loses points but so do 90% of all bball players. He'll grow into that.

With Mullins at the very least you get a guy that can rebound and even get some transition points and put backs. Pistons can definately use that!

Isn't Mullens already 7'1? If he is still growing then I would absolutely take him!

BallDon'tLie · Jun 17, 2009

Ernie the Slow Adult said: ↑

Isn't Mullens already 7'1? If he is still growing then I would absolutely take him!

No need for Mullens.

We have plenty of young bigs already.

BTW; This picture would look pretty damn sweet on the cover of DIME Magazine.

pass99 · Jun 18, 2009

alexa032 said: ↑

The Pistons have already worked out A LOT of players. They just worked out a bunch of pick 15 candidates this past week, I believe. This is hopefully going to be an active draft day for the Pistons.

Me too.

pass99 · Jun 18, 2009

CarlosGallan said: ↑

ricky Rubio english interview
NBA prospect Rubio visits Sacramento - Sacramento Sports - Kings, 49ers, Raiders, High School Sports | Sacramento Bee
NBA prospect Rubio visits Sacramento

ShareThis
By Sam Amick

Published: Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2009 - 12:00 am | Page 6C

I liked the global cachet.

pass99 · Jun 18, 2009

buffaloBRAVE said: ↑

Pistons should just take Mullins. They need a big man and here is their chance to get one.

No comparison between Mullins and Darko except that neither one is African American. GM's can actually watch game footage of Mullins where there was none with Darko.

Darko was pure Hype with nothing to back it up - nothing!

Mullins actually has some skill, he is an athletic big man with some post moves and can even face up. Darko had 0 post game and his face up game sucked too. Mullins D is where he loses points but so do 90% of all bball players. He'll grow into that.

With Mullins at the very least you get a guy that can rebound and even get some transition points and put backs. Pistons can definitely use that!

Under normal circumstances this would fall under global cachet. These are not normal times.

Considering the current center stiffs that have commanded higher levels of amusement utopias...this one might pan out. The league wants a semi-slavery methodology that says: life begins at mid-twenties. The price is right and the payoff is huge, even on one leg.

We get Gordon and the Bulls are picking 16. Just gotta love it.

"In battle their are only the normal and the extraordinary forces, but their combinations are limitless; none can comprehend them all."

SUN TZU

G-man · Jun 21, 2009

Detroit Draft Talk With Joe Dumars

PISTONS: Joe Dumars Draft Preview - Part I

LA Dre · Jun 22, 2009

NBA TV currently doing a draft Preview/ analysis needs of all teams and providing perspective interviews and workout tapes for the higher draft prospects.

Atlantic Division just finishing up with the Central division and the Pistons coming up at 6PM PDT/ 9PM EDT (now)
Will be interesting to see who they project for the Pistons.

Log in or Sign up

Detroit Draft Talk

KP Member+

Delfino Delivers Member+

KP Member+

Nemo Member+

G-man Contributor

bmill New Member

Latinoking90 Member+

alexa032 Member+

Jumpman313G Member+

pass99 Member+

alexa032 Member+

CarlosGallan Member+

buffaloBRAVE New Member

Ernie the Slow Adult Member+

BallDon'tLie Hji

pass99 Member+

pass99 Member+

pass99 Member+

G-man Contributor

LA Dre One Time Champion

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

Detroit Draft Talk

KP Member+

Delfino Delivers Member+

KP Member+

Nemo Member+

G-man Contributor

bmill New Member

Latinoking90 Member+

alexa032 Member+

Jumpman313G Member+

pass99 Member+

alexa032 Member+

CarlosGallan Member+

buffaloBRAVE New Member

Ernie the Slow Adult Member+

BallDon'tLie Hji

pass99 Member+

pass99 Member+

pass99 Member+

G-man Contributor

LA Dre One Time Champion

Share This Page

Useful Searches