Did a lot of research, have a new plan

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by blueadams, Apr 9, 2014.

  1. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    I was speaking hypothetically, why he'd consider opting out, dude.
     
  2. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    Alright. So, here's the top-50 blueadams ranked players in the league. METHODOLOGY. I used six statistics, WAR/RPM, EWA/PER and WS/WS-48. I found the top-50 ranking players in each of the six categories. I found each of those players rankings in the other five categories. And I averaged out all six rankings for a final, composite ranking.

    So, the formula is: WAR(r=rank)+EWA(r)+WS(r)+RPM(r)+PER(r)+WS/48(r) / 6 = blueadams rank.

    I also added some other things to the listing.

    *Name, Age, Position(s) (WAR(r)/EWA(r)/WS(r))-Avg.(of those 3), (RPM(r)/PER(r)/WS-48(r))-Avg.(of those 3) ~ Avg.(of all 6, i.e. 'blueadams ranking'), Grantland Trade-Value Rank (top 83 ranked), years remaining on contract-free agent status (*ESPN Insider projected salary for top-30 FA's, otherwise expiring or option salary is listed)..........rank among the top-50 3-pt shooters in the league, if applicable.

    1) K. Durant, 25, SF/SG (2/1/1)-1.33, (4/1/4)-3 ~ 2.17, #2, 2-U(21.2M)……….#22

    2) L. James, 29, SF/PF/SG (1/2/2)-1.67, (1/2/6)-3 ~ 2.34, #1, ETO(*23.1M)

    3) K. Love, 25, PF/C (5/3/3)-3.67, (10/3/7)-6.67 ~ 5.17, #20, 2-U(16.7M)

    4) C. Paul, 28, PG (4/10/6)-6.67, (2/6/5)-4.33 ~ 5.5, #8, 3-P(24.3M)

    5) S. Curry, 25, PG (3/7/4)-4.67, (7/12/10)-9.67 ~ 7.17, #3, 3-U(12.1M)……….#12

    6) D. Nowitzki, 35, PF/C (6/11/14)-10.33, (5/13/16)-11.33 ~ 10.83, #12, UFA(*12.5)……….#29

    7) B. Griffin, 24, PF (9/6/5)-6.67, (22/11/15)-16 ~ 11.34, #11, 3-P(21.3M)

    8) J. Harden, 24, SG (16/9/7)-10.67, (33/14/11)-19.67 ~ 15.17, #5, 3-T(17.8M)

    9) G. Dragic, 27, PG/SG (14/12/15)-13.67, (26/20/19)-21.67 ~ 17.67, #83, 1-PO(7.5M)……….#13

    10) J. Noah, 28, C (15/19/12)-15.33, (24/29/21)-24.67 ~ 20, #17, 2-U(14.2)

    11) K. Lowry, 27, PG (13/21/8)-14, (32/31/17)-26.67 ~ 20.34, nr, UFA(*5.7M)

    12) T. Duncan, 37, PF/C (11/26/33)-23.33, (8/21/38)-22.33 ~ 22.33, #13, PO(*10.0M)

    13) D. Howard, 28, C/PF (18/16/22)-18.67, (21/22/40)-27.67 ~ 23.17, #18, 2-P(23.3M)

    14) D. Jordan, 25, C (7/27/9)-14.33, (16/60/23)-33 ~23.67, nr, 1-U(11.4M)

    15) C. Anthony, 29, SF/PF (26/4/13)-14.33, (52/8/39)-33 ~ 23.67, #6, ETO(*23.5M)……….#24

    16) L. Aldridge, 28, PF/C (10/17/32)-19.67, (11/19/65)-31.67 ~ 25.67, #26, 1-U(15.2M)

    17) P. George, 23, SG/SF (28/15/10)-17.67, (58/27/27)-37.33 ~ 27.5, #15, 4-P(20.5M)

    18) C. Bosh, 29, C/PF (22/25/21)-22.67, (25/34/42)-33.67 ~ 28.17, #19, ETO(*20.1M)

    19) M. Conley, 26, PG (19/28/34)-27, (15/30/53)-32.67 ~ 29.84, #65, 2-U(9.7M)

    20) A. Davis, 20, PF/C (60/5/11)-25.33, (88/4/13)-35 ~ 30.17, #16, 2-R(9.2M)

    21) S. Ibaka, 24, PF (25/31/19)-25, (42/36/37)-38.33 ~ 31.67, #31, 3-U(12.3M)

    22) D. Lillard, 23 PG (21/24/17)-20.67, (48/42/47)-45.67 ~ 33.17, #30, 2-R(5.7M)……….#46

    23) M. Ginobli, 36, SG (41/51/59)-50.33, (9/25/22)-18.67 ~ 34.5, #80, 1-U(7M)

    24) I. Thomas, 24, PG (37/20/23)-26.67, (59/23/52)-44.67 ~ 35.67, nr, RFA(0.9M)

    25) R. Lopez, 25, C (33/36/18)-29, (50/67/31)-49.33 ~ 39.17, nr, 1-T(5.3M)

    26) D. West, 33, PF/SF (29/52/24)-35, (37/69/49)-51.67 ~ 43.34, #62, 1-P(12.6M)

    27) N. Pekovic, 28, C (59/40/57)-52, (46/24/35)-35 ~ 43.5, #32, 4-U(11.6M)

    28) R. Westbrook, 25, PG (66/39/95)-66.67, (18/9/34)-20.33 ~ 43.5, #4, 3-U(17.8M)

    29) J. Wall, 23, PG (27/18/29)-24.67, (60/32/98)-63.33 ~ 44, #25, 5-U(17.8M)

    30) M. Gortat, 30, C/PF (20/41/35)-32, (30/71/74)-58.33 ~ 45.17, nr, UFA(*8.3M)

    31) D. Cousins, 23, C (85/8/25)-39.33, (112/5/36)-51 ~ 45.17, #39, 4-U(16.8M)

    32) T. Lawson, 26, PG (31/33/45)-36.33, (44/40/86)-56.67 ~ 46.5, #27, 3-U(13.2M)

    33) C. Anderson, 35, PF/C (61/96/53)-70, (13/44/12)-23 ~ 46.5, nr, 1-U(1.4M)

    34) A. Jefferson, 29, C/PF(68/14/38)-40, (99/15/68)-60.67 ~ 50.34, nr, 1-P(13.5M)

    35) T. Parker, 31, PG (43/46/60)-49.67, (39/46/70)-51.67 ~ 50.67, #21, 1-U(12.5M)

    36) K. Leonard, 22, SF (79/45/37)-53.67, (85/39/20)-48 ~ 50.84, #60, 1-R(4.3M)

    37) D. Wade, 32, SG/PG (75/30/70)-58.33, (70/18/51)-46.33 ~ 52.33, #10, ETO(*14.0M)

    38) P. Mills, 25, PG (78/76/71)-75, (48/41/26)-38.33 ~ 56.67, nr, UFA(1.1M)……….#9

    39) P. Millsap, 29, PF (52/32/47)-43.67, (74/33/106)-71 ~ 57.34, nr, 1-U(9.5M)

    40) A. Drummond, 20, C (107/13/16)-45.33, (172/16/29)-72.33 ~ 58.83, #46, 2-R(4.4M)

    41) A. Varejao, 31, C/PF (45/79/76)-66.67, (19/74/71)-54.67 ~ 60.67, nr, TO(9.8M)

    42) D. Lee, 30, PF/C/SF (88/37/30)-51.67, (129/37/43)-69.67 ~ 60.67, #38, 2-U(15.5M)

    43) A. Bogut, 29, C/PF (74/78/46)-66, (73/70/30)-57.67 ~ 61.84, nr, 3-U(11M)

    44) A. Johnson, 26, PF/SF (17/108/48)-57.67, (12/118/80)-70 ~ 63.84, nr, TO(7M)

    45) D. DeRozan, 24, SG (82/22/20)-41.33, (142/55/72)-89.67 ~ 65.5, nr, 2-P(9.5M)

    46) T. Gibson, 28, PF (30/83/65)-59.33, (17/90/115)-74 ~ 66.67, nr, 3-U(9M)

    47) K. Faried, 24, PF (104/35/42)-60.33, (147/28/54)-76.33 ~ 68.33, #43, 1-R(3.4M)

    48) M. Gasol, C (54/67/90)-70.33, (27/66/107)-66.67 ~ 68.50, #14, 1-U(15.9M)

    49) B. Wright, 26, PF/C/SF (139/70/84)-97.67, (101/10/9)-40 ~ 68.84, #73, 1-U(5M)

    50) G. Monroe, 23, C/PF (42/38/56)-45.33, (71/57/150)-92.67 ~ 69, #28, RFA(*12.5M)



    Disclaimer of so-so importance. Greg Monroe's composite ranking is 69. I only wrote down the top-50 in each of the six categories, to start off. If someone was ranked 68th in all six categories, for instance, he'd be ranked ahead of Greg Monroe and I wouldn't have included him.

    It's pretty unlikely that such a player would exist. And I certainly didn't notice anyone consistently in the top-100 or so of the categories who's name I hadn't put down for at least one elsewhere. But I guess it is possible that I could have missed someone, however unlikely, so I thought that I'd at least mention it.
     
  3. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Don't get me wrong, Monroe is a fantastic player. But right now he is worth more as trade bait than he is playing. We are a losing team because we are weak at 3 of the 5 positions. It makes sense to trade a good C/PF to strengthen PG/SG/SF. Because he is young and productive, he is far more tradeable than JSmoove.

    I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Locking up a 35 year old energy guy off the bench for 5 years(which we can't do anyway because the new cba has a maximum duration of 4 years)? Is this the day we can all say you have truly lost the plot? Of course he would be interested, but who on earth is going to pay him that much? Certainly not anyone in the business of running a basketball team. Maybe we should start discussing multi-year contracts for Steve Nash/Jermaine O'Neal/Camby or we can just go the whole mile and bring Big Ben out of retirement for a few more years.

    I love Goran Dragic. I think he is an amazing player. But lets recap - the Suns have this other guy called Eric Bledsoe who will also command a massive salary and who they gave up a bunch of stuff to get. Also, he isn't undervalued, anyone who even casually watches the NBA knows that he is one of the most exciting players in the league. The fact that he was being shopped proves nothing, just that the FO realised there was an overlap of position strength and that he would walk because they wouldn't have enough money to meet his contract demands. The Suns are in the playoff picture right now and may want to keep him.

    ESPN projections are generally based on WARP x arbitrary salary factor. Don't pay much attention to them. Also, which espn article are you referring to? The one I just looked at has 8.7m and I believe it will go higher than that.

    That statement holds no value. Trevor Ariza is a league average player for ten years, now in his late 20's and has had a one year resurgence mostly buoyed by his 3pt shooting. Sure, he is a plus wing defender and I like that, but expect his production to falter in Detroit.

    I just don't have a lot of love for the guy.
     
  4. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    Ariza defends his position well and he's an excellent 3-pt shooter. What's so bad about that? No one ever said he was Kevin Durant.
     
  5. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm no cap expert, but I'm not sure there's a move blue mentioned that is legal.

    The Pistons can't trade their 2014 -15 pick because they already traded it.

    Generally speaking you can't have cap space while holding onto players either, right?
     
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  6. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    Exsqueeze me, baking powder?

    We traded either our 14, 15 or 16 pick. We still own two of those three picks, and we can trade either of them if we like.

    And I have no idea what you mean by "Generally speaking you can't have cap space while holding onto players either, right?". We can go up to the cap to sign free agents. We can then go over the cap to resign our own free agents. We can then use the MLE and go further over the cap.
     
  7. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    You can't trade 2 1st rounders in a row.

    You don't have cap space until you renounce your own free agents.
     
  8. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    You can't trade two picks in a row and we don't know when we are losing ours. So if we get a pick this draft we can't trade with a first rounder until either we fall out of the lottery next year or the pick is officially transferred. Otherwise we can trade the first year after the pick becomes unprotected.

    He is a career 34.7% 3 point shooter. So this year is an anomaly. I said before that I think he is a plus defender. For comparison, Kyle Singler shoots 36.6% and is also a plus defender by all accounts. He gets paid $1m per year.
     
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  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Not all accounts.
     
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  10. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think it have to be two years after the pick becomes unprotected, otherwise we'll trade our pick two years in a row. The earliest 1st rounder we can trade is 2018.
     
  11. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Nate Silver used the same methodology as blue did in his prediction model for the presidential election 2012 (he nailed 50/50 states). He took a bunch of polls and aggregated with some clever weighting. It's taking wisdom of the crowds one more step to wisdom of the polls.

    Wiki:

    You should normalize this with the weighted average or something, otherwise the stat with the highest spread will have the highest weight in the formula. An example is PER and WS/48 where the best players have 30 vs 0.2.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2014
  12. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think @blueadamsblueadams vs the salary cap is shaping up to be some battle.
     
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  13. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Sorry, you are right.

    I wonder how many teams will be lining up just to get a sniff of our delicious 2018 first round pick.
     
  14. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I am pretty sure most of the players that will be in the 2018 draft are still in kindergarten.
     
  15. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

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    CV is their older student/playground monitor.
     
  16. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    1) Why couldn't you trade two 1st rd'ers in a row?

    2) If we renounced Monroe, would we lose his bird rights? If not, it wouldn't matter.
     
  17. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    1) I don't get where this "you can't trade two picks in a row" thing is coming from? I've never heard of it. And didn't we trade two 1st rd. picks in a row to acquire 'Sheed?

    2) If we get to keep our pick this year -- and we'll know about that soon -- why wouldn't we be able to trade it?

    3) If we don't get to keep our pick this year -- and, again, we'll know that soon -- why wouldn't we be able to trade our '15 pick?

    4) It's common for players to become better outside shooters as they age, is it not? I'd like to see a year-by-year breakdown of Ariza's percentages.

    5) Singler is a terrible defender.
     
  18. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    I used "ranking." So, like "1" for best. "50" for 50th best. "128" for 128th best. etc.

    So, it's not a problem.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2014
  19. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    Even if I concede these points. Worst-case scenario:

    1) Draft Stauskas.
    2) Don't renounce Monroe.
    3) Sign Lowry -- even with Monroe's current salary counting against the cap, or his qualifying offer salary counting against the cap, there's still enough cap space to offer Lowry a max deal, if necessary.
    4) Resign Monroe, going over the cap, if necessary.
    5) Use the MLE, going over the cap, if necessary, to sign Ariza.

    C: Drummond(32min), Monroe(16min)
    PF: Smith(32min), Monroe(16min)
    SF: Ariza(32min), Singler(16min)
    SG: Stauskas(32min), C-Pope(16min)
    PG: Lowry(32min), Jennings(16min)

    Siva, Mitchell, Harrellson.....Jerebko, Datome, Bynum

    I'm happy. Stauskas might not be as good as Dragic. He might be better. ?
     
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  20. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Ok, that's alot better but there is still some issues, the difference between no 1 and no 10 is alot larger than between no 51 and no 60.
    Or as good as LeBron.
     

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