Dumars Headaches

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by max, Jun 7, 2006.

  1. max

    max All-Star

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    Just throwing this out there. I do want to re-sign Ben and hope something can be worked because the iron is still hot for next season.

    Lets look for a moment at Dumars philosophy 3 years ago that many GM's around the league took note of. Build a team with a bunch of very good players all making less than the maximum. This was when we signed Billups for 6 mil/yr, had Corliss for around 6mil and Bens former contract of around 6mil/yr was still relatively fresh. All good deals and all thought to be about what they were worth at the time.

    What happends when you have post-season success and these 6mil guys want max or near max contracts? Even if we do get Ben to settle for something around 10mil/yr Billups will be seeking a contract for the max or near it next summer. In other words with the league contract limits Chanucy will be inking for roughly the same amount as Wade and Lebran James next summer.

    Is this good value? Don't get me wrong I still love our team and believe we can still win but this seems to throw off Dumars system a bit. When your unsung heros start seeking max deals and with some desperate team like ATL just around the corner who will pay it if we don't are we getting in a situation where a 2 superstar team core is much better value?

    We also have to start homegrowing more talent. I see in almost every post issues addressing the bench and how we can solve it with only the mid-level. We forget that we got pretty lucky with Prince and Okur ( when we had him ). At some point you have to get lucky and have some of your rookies contribute. A rookie contract is one of the best values around if they can contribute. You get talent on a shoe string for a few years. Imagine if Amir gets locked up for say 3 years at 5 mil total and actually starts playing like the next Kobe. How huge would that be to get that from someone only making 1-2mil/season. Sure you eventually have to pay him but for those 2-3 seasons you are buying a lot of time for the older more expensive players to run their course.
     
  2. aurora

    aurora Bench Warmer

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    Tiz a puzzlement. I wouldn't want to be Joe trying to make the money work for sure. But there are plenty of precedents for this problem. In the NFL Seattle Seahawks have been going through it this year. Post-season success = $ headaches for the franchise.

    I really hope we don't move to the 2 superstar team model. I don't like those teams. Too formulaic. And the shooting guard/center formula is way boring to me and almost old-fashioned. Boo. Just say no to the Shaq/Kobe formula. I think one superstar is all that is needed, if the other jigsaw puzzle pieces fit around that superstar.

    I think the real problem you describe is that even when we give our guys the max, say Ben and Chauncey, we still don't get superstars. We get great team players that cost a lot more. Does Chauncey deserve max superstar $? I don't think so. I'd much rather trade him for that money for Jason Terry, who will be a superstar point guard. If we are willing to pay superstar money, maybe we should get a superstar.
     
  3. #1Pistonfan

    #1Pistonfan First Round Draft Pick 2x Fantasy Champion

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    Uh, are you serious? JT is a superstar? I mean I like him but he's NO superstar, nor is he ever going to be one.
     
  4. FreshPrince22

    FreshPrince22 Bench Warmer

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    You gotta pay to play. You can get by cheap if you're lucky to begin a title run, but you can't to finish it out. Just the fact that the players have year-round exposure on the biggest stage year after year boosts their hype, and their next contract. Being a key contributer to a title-winner automatically boosts your market value 15-20% IMO.
     
  5. mercury

    mercury Bench Warmer

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    Max, I think this next year will be the tell-all... another ship and Joe & Mr. D have little choice but pay the $'s to keep Chauncey... if they come up short then it's just not gonna happen for this current squad... time to deal one or two starters.
     
  6. max

    max All-Star

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    Keep in mind guys some of the chatter was Ben for a huge 12-15 mil/yr deal sometime last fall/winter. We got lucky that Ben sabotaged his value a bit late in the season and the playoffs. Still not out of the woods yet and Chic may still come with a huge offer.

    If Billups has another good year and produces in the post-season then we probably will see some max offers for him. Jason Kidd was around 30 when he got his current deal.
     
  7. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    Very good point. The guy always works hard though and I hope we sign him and he wants to carry this team on his back. If he signs with the team right on July 1st that would be great and it would show he still really wants to be here. I'm looking forward to Ben being the leader again of this team.
     
  8. mercury

    mercury Bench Warmer

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    I was thinking the same thing about Ben hurting his own value in the post season... even to the point that they may have limited his touches this year to keep the value down.... or maybe that helped him :^)

    Anyways, I'm more concerned about overpaying Ben than Chauncey... Chauncey will be young enough where he's still tradable if need be.

    We may be under the false impression that we're stuck with these salaries till the bitter end... high salaried players are often moved for expiring deals and picks etc.

    Just don't over pay your old guys long term... that's a poison pill.
     
  9. ggazoo69

    ggazoo69 Team Captain Forum Donor

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    We did get lucky with a No. 2 pick and ended up with a guy that didn't play much and was traded. I'm not sure how more lucky we can get. Joe D's really paying for that one. What a colossal boo-boo that is looking like. Not because Dorko isn't talented, because Dumars should have drafted a proven entity. Oh well, I'm a broken record. :fingerscr
     
  10. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I wonder if we're seeing a change in how organizations try to field championship teams. Used to be you could afford to pay a bunch of high quality players - think Magic, Kareem, Worthy plus role players, Bird, McHale, Parish plus, Isiah, Dumars et al. Then salaries started to climb and you might only get two, but if they were the right ones - Jordan and Pippen, you could still be a dynasty. I'd guess that player salaries and the current structure of the league are the main reasons the Bulls were the last and probably will remain the last true dynasty.

    Today there are a couple of competing models -

    Mavs - still trying the old approach with one genuine superstar, but will probably run into the same problems we are discussing here with the Pistons - how do you continue to pay that many decent players when other teams will pay them more?

    Pistons - A new model with no what the press now calls superstars. We'll see if the two things this model needs to succeed can happen - keep the core intact, and manage to have enough money left over to put a decent bench behind them.

    Heat / Spurs - The new hot approach - Build around one or two superstars, but don't place younger / journeyman role players around them, instead try to bring in hungry vets who are willing to play for the minimum.

    It's uncharted waters out here.
     
  11. dozero

    dozero First Round Draft Pick

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    I really think Ben wants to be here. The, "I don't need an agent." move was when the season started and hopes were high. When the game and philosophy (sp) got away from Ben's idea of a good time he got an agent, "just in case". Of all the Piston's, he seems to be the least happy with Flip. Remember how it got wild when Woodson left Brown in year 2? What's it gonna be when Lowe moves on?
     
  12. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    I totally forgot about Wodson. Joe wants a guy who can get players respect the second he walks into the locker room. Herb Brown comes into mind, but Woodson would be great here too if he came back. He has a little something going a little better with the Haws in the ATL so probably not...Any ideas who Joe D will put on the sideline?
     
  13. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Ben is easy to me, all he really needs to do is hit 65% from the line and expand his offensive game to resemble Udonis Haslem's. In this league there are a handful if players that learned to hit from a few spots on the floor and were able to be productive for years.
    #1) Eric Snow, ability to hit the WIDE open 15' jumper kept him in this league for years.
    #2)Avery Johnson, all he had to do was make the open midrange shot from the weakside baseline and BAM!!!! $$$$$$ + a ring, now he's in the Finals as a coach.
    #3)Kurt Thomas, is MONEY from the right baseline on a kick out
    #4)Udonis Haslem, knows exatly what shot he HAS!!!! to knock down to make defenses pay.
    If Ben can hit from 12-15' at the high post and knock down the 12' baseline jumper, we'll be unstoppable next season, if he can't....well... Bo Outlaw will wonder why he never got a $50mill contract when he and Ben are practically identical.
    So Joe's headache is easily relieved if Ben can hit a few WIDE OPEN!!! J's and hit 65%, then he looks like super genius. BTW I say Big Ben = 4yrs $52 mill. That means we only need 3 good years because in the 4th his expiring deal looks really good to other teams in a S&T, when players like D-Howard, Amare, and Bosh are not "Happy" with the direction of the team since they inked their max deals, or when Indy gives up on J-O being able to deliver a 'ship and he's still only 29/30 yrs old.
     
  14. TWOTIMESRALPHI

    TWOTIMESRALPHI Team Captain 3x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I think it's too late for Ben to learn how to shoot. I mean, what has he done the last years? Sure, he's been bench pressing and working on his conditioning and strength- two things that made him being able to compete with taller, bigger players. But since he's getting older, he needs to work on his body more than on his shot- he probably won't even have the time to improve his shooting since he should ride a Kareem- like training regime to stay in shape. Maybe he should ask ol' Rick Barry about his free throw- style.
     
  15. aurora

    aurora Bench Warmer

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    :rolleyes: Well okay, #1Pistonsfan, but I didn't really mean that Jason Terry is a superstar now. I just meant that if I were spending the money, I'd rather have someone who is a young rising star at a decent price than pay the max to Chauncey when his contract is up.

    To me Jason Terry fits that bill. Dallas would be crazy to let him go.Did anyone see him get 32 points in Game 1 Thursday night? He could have gotten more, but in the 3rd quarter he decided to try to get Dirk going. He's got great hands passing in tight traffic too. Oh yeah.:)

    Jason Terry is definitely my new basketball crush.:nod:
     
  16. LanierFan

    LanierFan Bench Warmer

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    Jason Terry had a great game, but he's easier to like if you don't have to watch him every night. He's not exactly Mr. Consistency.
     
  17. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    Joe Dumars will have big headaches. It would be very hard for him to do what he has done in the past with this group when the run is over. Before Joe D. wouldn't be hated even when he shipped out grant hill for a nobody because the team wasn't having any success. All our starters were found by Joe D. and became stars but they made this franchise a great success for this past half decade unlike the groups before them. When this teams run is over its going to be very hard for him to let these players go. That time isn't now though. The window is still wide open and I don't believe a word of the bandwagoners who say its closed. We'll KNOW when the run is over just like the badboys. Can anyone here tell me that they are positively sure this group is done? I know I can't.
     
  18. aurora

    aurora Bench Warmer

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    Our run with Ben, Tay, Sheed, Rip, and Chauncey is not done. However, the window for actually winning an NBA title with Flip Saunders as head coach is closed. Painted shut.

    Our beloved starting five that Joe D. put together so brilliantly will not win an NBA championship with Flip Saunders as the head coach. This team's Flip run (regular season 2005-2006) is over. Last season HCA victory is as good as it's gonna get for Flip and this guys. Scorching honeymoon, great sex, love the freedom but it's ov-ah.

    For our starting five to win a championship with Flip as the head coach would meant that Big Ben, Sheed, Rip, Tay, Chauncey and Dice would have to put Flip on their back and carry him, and he could get real real heavy as the season and playoff march progressed. Just like he did this year. I don't see that happening. My experience as a national caliber athlete tells me that this is the hardest kind of trust to rebuild, when elite athletes have lost trust. Younger athletes handle it better, but older veteran athletes have little tolerance for a coach's learning curve.

    I don't think they can win a title with Flip's system either. Flip's offensive genius system is incompatible with two of our starting five IMO. Ben's contribution gets lost in it, and it exposes Chauncey's weaknesses. Too much iso, not enough ball movement, less Rip focus. I recently watched two regular season games against Miami, and even when Flip's system was looking good, it was looking bad if you know what I mean.

    I hope our starting five stay together long enough for me to come to Detroit to see a game in the Palace. I really want to see them play together live, even if it is Flip's yucky system. :nod:
     
  19. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    I'm giving the guy one last chance. If I don't see guys cutting to the paint, bench minutes, and ball movement + chemistry forget about it. I am hoping he learned from his mistakes real badly
     
  20. mercury

    mercury Bench Warmer

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    66 wins is not cow manuer (woulda had at least two more W's at end of season if needed)... they can win with Flip... other teams don't magically change because it's the playoffs.... The order of deficiency:
    1) Lacking enough talent to beat the Heat
    2) Missing open looks
    3) Nobody that can consistently score inside
    4) Coaching
     

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