How many ?

Mogilny · Nov 14, 2012

The Panda said: ↑

I think it is old news. But it is an interesting topic - not because you get to rag on JD for being a Dumars, but for examining a draft pick being so colossally wrong. But it wasn't just him who got it wrong, it was the whole league. It was the difference between the Thunder in the Finals last year or eeking out 20 wins as they usually did.

For me, it's more than one pick. For me, it's a prime example of exactly what is wrong with the drafting system in terms of the evaluation of talent. I feel as though the yardstick is not right in the NBA. Every pick that ever went bust, whether it's payoff picks like Oden(sort of), or an all out Kwame. These picks bring into the spotlight the legitimacy of the process by which these guys are evaluated.

Despite the downward course our argument took (w/ KIITM), it was nonetheless semi-engaging. Is Melo a good player? What substantiates a good draft pick? What metrics do we measure it by? If English did nothing but egg on the team to wins from the sidelines, are we gettting good value out of that second rounder? Do we measure in absolute terms, or relative terms? How do we build a payoff matrix for the draft?

These are all questions that spin in my head when I think of the draft, and Darko.

I posted my thoughts about top pick busts a couple of years ago here and I still think the concept applies (I found the post by searching for posts by me with the keyword "zetterberg", how's that for memory?!?!):

Since I'm not as experienced basketball expert as alot of you guys are I don't know exactly how well scouted the top drafts in the NBA are but since we are talking about such huge organizations and revenues I'm going to assume it's just as well done as in the NHL. Imo this leads to a bust such as Darko is pure bad luck since the, let's say, top 5 draft prospects are so ridiculously scouted that these picks can almost be compared to a perfect market because of the amount of information gathered by all clubs involved. Most of the clubs will have the same ranking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with some smaller differences like 1, 3, 2, 5, 4 or 2, 1, 3, 4, 5 and some clubs might differ a bit more because of specific needs, maybe something like 3, 1, 2, 4, 5.

If this is true, which I believe it is, it means we need A LOT more early busts to conclude that JD:s weakness is early picks. I would say the GM:s draft skill (or more the scouting department) is much more determined by the success of the late choices were teams rank the players alot more differently. A good example of a team which is successful in this department for you Detroiters is Red Wings. They seem to strike gold with their 6th round picks time after time and that is a sign of good drafting.

I don't have a list over the successful late picks by Red Wings but take a look at the Swedes in Detroit (Kronwall of Pain excluded since he was drafted 29th) for example:

Johan Franzen, 97th overall, 2004.
Tomas Holmström, 257th overall, 1994.
Niclas Lidström, 53rd overall, 1989.
Henrik Zetterberg, 210th overall, 1999.

Pretty decent results imo.

This might be completely off since I assumed the scouting works in the same way as in the NHL so keep that in mind before you flame me.

That is, if we would have "won" the 5th pick instead of the 2nd, Joe might have drafted Wade and we'd still be talking about how great of a picker he is. The lottery decided how great of a drafter he is.

Nemo · Nov 14, 2012

When I evaluate JD's success with the draft.........I believe that as a child...he kept trying to force the
square peg into the round hole.

Log in or Sign up

How many ?

Mogilny Member+

Nemo Member+

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

How many ?

Mogilny Member+

Nemo Member+

Share This Page

Useful Searches