How to think like Joe-D.

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by blueadams, Jun 7, 2009.

  1. blueadams

    blueadams Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    Think about some of the moves Joe-D made to build his last championship team for a moment...

    He didn't trade Stackhouse for someone that was better than Stackhouse; he traded him for someone that was GOING to be better than Stackhouse.

    In looking for potential targets, we shouldn't be looking at players that are better than Tayshaun, Rip, etc...we should be looking at players that are on the verge of breaking out.

    I guarantee that's what Joe-D's doing.
     
  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Good posts lately blueadams. I like how you are thinking.
     
  3. max

    max All-Star

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    Thats what makes it so hard to predict. You know its going to be something you never saw and is going to be controversial.

    Theme this summer is getting younger so we can have that to go by at least. Then again he may throw in one of those Mateen Cleaves for Jon Barry type moves as well.

    I can't wait until July 1 comes around. Get these Finals over with so we can get to the off-season. Amazing how long the playoffs seem when the Pistons are not in it. Seems like they played their last game months ago.
     
  4. Tha Locstah

    Tha Locstah First Round Draft Pick 1x Fantasy Champion

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    I'm not sure bringing Mateen or Jon Jon back would be such a great idea. Aren't they both out of the NBA? But then again they may be able to resurrect their careers. :)
     
  5. theWORM

    theWORM First Round Draft Pick

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    Great thread and post Blue, wherever you are. It has recently dawned on me (but may not be news to some here) that there is a definite pattern to Joe's moves that may just give away exactly how it is he thinks.

    Joe hailed from a small school (McNeese State) and was barely a bleep on any one's Radar not named McCloskey. He had to work for his keep and earn his rewards. He knew what hard work was all about.

    Joe's signature moves, and ones that go unnoticed, all share a common theme. He signs guys who fit that description. The Unheralded. The journeyman. The underdog. The blue collar guy. The anti-prima donna. Guys with something to PROVE.

    Ben Wallace. Billups. Kwame. Corliss. Stuckey. Prince. McDyess.

    Name, compare this to Isiah's moves in NY:

    Starbury. E-City. Stevie Franchise. Z-Bo.

    Now, Joe has stated on record more recently that in TODAY's L, you need a superstar to win games. Since being unable to acquire Melo from Denver (who for various reasons was being perceived as an underacheiver), he has downgraded this to wanting to acquire 'impact' players. Afterall, top tier franchise players, especially ones in their prime, are extremely difficult to acquire.

    What does this tell us about what Joe is thinking, and what he is likely to do? Two things.

    Firstly, Blue's suggestion that Joe will now target a guy or two who possess the untapped potential to become a franchise guy is an extremely shrewd one. I think this is why Joe switched from using terms synonymous with 'star' and 'franchise' player, to using the term 'impact' player. To qualify, they need to have 'alpha male' potential, and sho promise or be proven as an effective 'closer'.

    Secondly, Joe will also target guys he seems some of himself in. Guys who have a chip on their shoulder. Who have bounced around a bit. Not big names who demand big money and have a history of not delivering. Especially ones who hold an air of entitelment.

    Let's look at some examples of guys Joe could be targeting, and ones he would not be, based on the above analysis:

    - Ben Gordon fits the bill nicely as an up and coming franchise player. True Alpha male potential. Not there yet. May never be. But hey, he knows how to score and is fearless in taking the big shots. Gordon also fits the bill as a guy who has something to prove. Lots of doubters and HATERS, some of them on this very board (!). Given he scores very highly on both counts, it is hard to imagine Joe not having him at or near the top of his wish list, regardless of whether you happen to be a fan or not.

    - Ariza is a guy who you could throw 10-12 million at in the hope LA does not match, and in doing so GROSSLY over pay him based on what he has accomplished thus far. But he could blossom and be one of the best second bananna's in a very short amount of time, and in doing so, make that contract look like a bargain down the road. I suspect LA will automatically match anything under 8 million, and Joe has never taken a flier like this before, so he is a long shot to be in a Pistons uniform at best.

    - Boozer. Has that air of entitlement about him. Has proven to beinjury prone. Lost that 'drafted in the second round' mojo about him. No way he is on Joe's list, unless its for 60c on the dollar. Signing Boozer to a max like deal would be like when the Cavs signed Larry Hughes to one, who have been paying for it ever since. High risk, Low reward. Not a Joe Dumar's type move.

    - Amare. Exactly how hungry is he? Is it now established that he is not an alpha male kinda guy capable of leading a team to the promised land? I think so. But even if you beg to differ, I can't see the Suns letting him walk, unless it was for Griffin in return. The microfracture surgery still puts me off too. Too much risk. Questionable reward. Not a Joe Dumar's type move.

    - Millsap. Lots-o-Joe in Millsap. The kinda hard nosed player Joe loves. Not my first choice, but is likely to be one of Joe's if history is anything to go by.

    - David Lee. Hard working on the glass. Check. A lateish pick (by Zeke no less). Check. Likely to command too much money. Ouch. I can't see it happenning.

    - Dre Miller fits the bill as a guy who has bounced around and probably wants to prove he has plenty left in the tank. Given Joe has given up on Stuckey as a PG (he's now seen as strictly a combo), he is likely to target a true PG either in FA, trade or the draft. Dre for the right money and length of contract would be a coup, and Philly may be tempted to sign and trade too, maybe for the 15th plus Bynum? I am convinced he will be a Piston next season.

    Ernie has mentioned some bigs not named Gortat (second rounder with something to prove) that escape my memory (Is Swift a skinny but hungry young big, or simply a skinny young big?). I am sure there are others that fit one or the other category I have identified.
     
  6. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Great post, WORM!
     
  7. Murph

    Murph First Round Draft Pick

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    I'm beginning to not understand how Joe thinks. IMO, Joe has very little inderstanding concerning the risks and rewards of his decision making process.

    For example: Let's take Bill Laimbeer. Laimbeer has been the obvious choice as head coach of the Pistons for roughly 5 years. Laimbeer is an outstanding WNBA coach, a loyal company man and a Bad Boy through and through with his number hanging in the rafters. Even if Joe had hired Laimbeer, and it didn't work out, no one would have blamed Joe. Everyone would have said, "Hey...Laims paid his dues, deserved a shot and it didn't work out."

    Now look at the alternative. Let's say Laimbeer gets a head coaching job in for another NBA team, and turns into an excellent coach, which is entirely likely. At that point, everyone will say, "What was Joe thinking? Laimbeer was right under his nose, and Joe hired Michael Curry and stuck with him."

    Hiring Laimbeer was a riskless decision for Dumars.


    It's very similar to Joe's decision regarding the #2 pick in 2004. If Joe had drafted Carmelo and he didn't work out, no one would have blamed Joe. Everyone would have said, "Carmelo was the obvious choice. Melo led his team and won an NCAA Championship as a freshman. It just didn't work out."

    And look at the altenative. Joe made a high risk decision and took Darko. Now everyone says, "What was Joe thinking? Carmelo was right under his nose, and Joe took an unproven, 18 year old Euro."


    Or how about the Billups for AI trade. The safe move was to stick with the tried and true Billups. Even if the Pistons had foundered this year, no one would have blamed him for sticking with Billups.

    But Joe threw causion to the wind and picked up a high risk player in Iverson. Now everyone is saying, "What was Joe thinking?"


    My point is, Joe's understanding of the risk/reward of transactions is becoming way out of whack. He is tending toward making dumb, high risk moves.
     
  8. Blue

    Blue First Round Draft Pick

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    I agree with your first two, but I have to disagree with this one. First of all, high risk moves carry high potential rewards, but obviously they can be tremendous busts. That's the risk. It's hard to move above mediocrity without taking some risks. Joe definitely took a risk with the AI trade, but with his contract coming off of the books some of this risk was clearly mitigated.

    I also think some people would have blamed him for standing pat with the core this season. Some people were killing him for not breaking up the core after 2006. Others thought that he needed to keep it together and add pieces (like a James Posey for example). Still others thought we shouldn't have done the Billups trade and kept it together. He was damned if he did and damned if he didn't in some respects.

    I kind of like the way Joe thinks. Most teams are trying to build a winner by floundering in mediocrity until they win the lotto and get a super-star. To me this is a low percentage way, and I like Joe's approach better:

    Make higher risk/ higher potential reward moves on impact players (that are not super-stars) and have them gel as a nice unit. Moves such as:

    • Stack for Rip
    • Billups signed at the MLE
    • Dyess at the MLE
    • Acquiring Sheed
    were high risk moves that paid dividends. When it works well, you have several guys on their roster outplaying their contracts (like LA did with Ariza this year). When possible, mitigate the risks (like a contract coming off the books, or other type of tradable asset). I think it's a higher percentage way to build a winner, and Joe proved that he could do it once. Let's see if he can do it again (how much fun would it be if he did?).
     
  9. Murph

    Murph First Round Draft Pick

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    You make many good points, and let's examine the above quote. I don't really consider signing Dyess and Billups for the MLE to be high risk moves.

    I agree that the Stack for Rip trade was a high risk trade that worked out well.

    In the Sheed trade, Joe gave up very little, and Sheed's contract was expiring. So again, I'm not sure how high risk that trade was either.
     
  10. lapiston

    lapiston Team Captain

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    Ben Gordon. Joe will make a big play for him. But that is not all. If he gets Gordon, Rip would be traded. Gordon can shoot the lights out, is young, and already proven in the playoffs. Rip traded for who???

    I still think Boozer is in line. But that still leaves open as to who comes in at center--probably via a trade. Now if Josh Smith is really available, that would open up other possibilities. He has Piston DNA.

    People are not excited about Boozer, etc. but put Gordon and Boozer next to Stuckey and a center (via trade) and it starts to look like a legitimate team with no key guy over 28. Importantly, no wishful thinking about are young guys. Only Stuckey would not totally proven but he will get there. Look at the guard play in the playoffs. Stuckey has more ability than most of who I saw.

    Look for a major makeover.
     
  11. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    Huh???
     
  12. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I'm really struggling here to see how Joe D would trade for a guy who doesn't play defense. And when he tries, he gets immediately into foul trouble. Sure doesn't seem like a Dumars type player.
     
  13. lapiston

    lapiston Team Captain

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    Smith has a lot of upside, athleticism off the charts and at least a start on a jump shot (unlike our young bigs).

    Gordon would be a move for offense. A good team in the NBA needs a few guys who can flat out score. Gordon is at that level. Not many are. I am more confident that Gordon will be pursured heavily than Josh but Josh is very intriguing.

    At any rate, look for a major change to the team.
     
  14. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    How about someone who's off the radar a little bit like Eddie Griffin? This kid was a high lottery pick who's 6-10 or 6-11 and no one is talking about him. You could get him for cheap and if he could reach his potential they'd have a bargain. He almost has to be hungry.
     
  15. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    Eddie Griffin?
     
  16. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    This Eddie Griffin?

    Eddie Griffin Wrecks SUV While Drunk and Masterbating - Associated Content

    He died in a car wreck about a year ago.

    BASKETBALL; Eddie Griffin Killed In Crash - New York Times

    I feel bad for making so many sophomoric comments about the first article prior to his death. I even used his likeness as my avatar for a while on here.


    edited to add:
    ...awe heck, I can't resist: The guy is a STIFF!!!
     
  17. Tha Locstah

    Tha Locstah First Round Draft Pick 1x Fantasy Champion

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    BRUTAL!
     
  18. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's awesome. Best part is he's less of a stiff than Trent Plaisted.
     
  19. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Am I the only one who thinks Eddie Griffin could still draw Amir Johnson off his feet on D?
     
  20. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    In Amir's defense, Eddie did always like to use the "pump fake" when driving.
     

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