1. Football Picks Survivor is done for 2014. Congrats to billlaimbeer from The Pistons Forum

im done wih the pistons

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by doublead, Jan 10, 2008.

  1. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is where I disagree and why we probably won't see eye to eye on this. I don't think they are a good enough jump shooting team to rely on them in the post season. Just like I don't believe that these players are good enough to "turn it on" and "know what they have to do." They need a coach with high expectations and that will push them and push them and push them to be more than they "think" they are. The past two years have shown that. But, that's exactly what they have done.

    When the shots stop falling, they run out of options and fail to produce. This team needs to prepare alternatives to jump shooting and they seem think that none of it matters and they'll just be able to 3pt their way past teams. That's fine if other people think they are good enough to do that, but their last two playoff runs suggest to me that they aren't.
     
  2. Dlev59

    Dlev59 Bench Warmer Moderator

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    I am enjoying reading these interesting points of view from you guys, however, maybe I am slow or something but, have we ever been a very good PIP team?

    I mean even when the Pistons won the ship; how did we do in PIP and was that THE determining factor in their success in `04?

    If it was, did the talent we had that year play a role in the increase in PIP?

    Someone please, enlighten me..............
     
  3. max

    max All-Star

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    Shoot, that was last year wasn't it.

    I was trying to find something from this year. Anyone have PIP stats from this year? I can swear the Pistons are getting inside more now.
     
  4. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    Well, then how do you explain these numbers from the '05 ECF?

    Game 1
    Rebounds: Pistons 41, Heat 34
    PIP: Pistons 30, Heat 52

    Game 7

    Rebounds: Pistons 41, Heat 35
    PIP: Pistons 30, Heat 52

    Those stats are almost exactly the same for both games, but it's not a typo: the Pistons were out-PIPed 52-30 in both games, but they outrebounded the Heat in both of them as well. And that was good enough to win both games, on the road.

    As a general point, of course it's better to get points inside and not rely too much on jumpers. But can you really expect to win playoff games on the road while getting out-PIPed by 22? Yet the Pistons did precisely that, twice, in the '05 ECF.

    Of course, had they not done well on the boards, they probably would have lost those games. And in the current regular season, they've been out-PIPed by Boston by double digits both times, yet they won the first game (thanks to being roughly even on the boards) and almost won the second game. In fact, they pretty clearly would have won that second game, in spite of the PIP deficit, had they taken care of the boards as well as they did in the first game.
     
  5. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's not just our total rank in points scored. It's PIP DET gets, copuled with the huge numbers of PIP DET gives up. Especially when DET struggles in the post season. That means DET's opponents score with relative ease and much more often, while DET is busy running around on the perimeter shooting low percentage shots. It's not the only factor in losses, but it's most often the most telling.

    If they are getting easy shots all night long, this team has to essentially be "on fire" for the entire playoff run in order to have any shot at getting close to the title. Well, almost NO team is going to be that "on" for the entire playoff run. You have to be able to get it done inside (AND keep them from getting it done inside) in order to get past some teams/series. For DET more than some teams, there's a direct relation to how well they manage that and how much post season success they see.
     
  6. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    Low, I assume your 5:31 post went up before you saw my 5:28 post. Don't you think those numbers contradict your 5:31 post to at least some extent?

    More stats to follow soon (from the ECF last year).
     
  7. max

    max All-Star

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    D4E - I think Miami was kind of abnomality that year as over half their offense came from Shaq/Wade who both practically lived in the post. With our 05 team we had lost 2 great post players in Okur/Corliss from the championship year.

    We do have Maxiel this year which has to be making a difference.
     
  8. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    2007 ECF, Pistons vs. Cavs (boxscores here):

    These stats are quite surprising to me. They don't seem to fit with Low's thesis at all. In fact Games 1, 4, and 5 are basically the polar opposite of what he's claiming. In all three cases, one team both outrebounded and out-PIPed the other team by a margin of 6 to 10 in both categories, but still lost the game.

    The only game where you could look at these stats and see an obviously decisive difference was Game 6, where the Cavs outrebounded the Pistons by 20. Not surprisingly, that was the one blowout in the whole series. As I showed from the '05 ECF, a team can win despite being down by 20 or more on PIP in a given game, but I'd be stunned to find a playoff game with a 20+ rebound margin for one team where it's anything but a decisive win for the team with that huge rebounding edge.

    Game 1 (Pistons noticeably behind in BOTH categories, but still won)
    PIP: Pistons 26, Cavs 36
    Rebounds: Pistons 41, Cavs 49

    Game 2 (Pistons basically even in both categories, won)
    PIP: Pistons 32, Cavs 34
    Rebounds: Pistons 37, Cavs 39

    Game 3 (Pistons slightly behind on PIP, even on the boards, lost)
    PIP: Pistons 26, Cavs 32
    Rebounds: Pistons 34, Cavs 34

    Game 4 (Pistons led BOTH categories but still lost)
    PIP: Pistons 32, Cavs 26
    Rebounds: Pistons 40, Cavs 34

    Game 5
    (Pistons led BOTH categories but still lost by making LeBron the Messiah down the stretch)
    PIP: Pistons 42, Cavs 34
    Rebounds: Pistons 45, Cavs 39

    Game 6

    PIP: Pistons 34, Cavs 30 (Pistons actually LED this lopsided loss in PIP!)
    Rebounds: Pistons 33, Cavs 53 (DOH...obviously this was a HUGE reason why they lost this final game)
     
  9. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Those are examples of two games where DET shot better from the perimeter than MIA. Which is exactly what I mean. They will shoot better from the outside from time to time. However, they didn't win 15 of the 16 games necessary to get the title by extremely hot from the perimeter for all 15 playoff games. They shot poorly in game 6, but still won PIP and won the game.

    In game one they shot 46% from the field and 55% from the 3.
    In game seven they shot 46% from the field and 39% from the 3 to MIA's 18% from 3 in a very close game that went down to the wire. The good perimeter shooting was the difference. It's the exception that proves the rule.

    Aagain, it's not to say they can't win any games that way, but the norm has been that they don't win the majority of their playoff games simply by being on fire from outside.

    In the games they lost, the jumpers didn't fall, they got handled in PIP, and got out rebounded.

    Example:
    They lost game two by 6. They shot poorly, got out rebounded and lost PIP by 22, but lost by 6. If you still shoot poorly, get out rebounded and are just EVEN in PIP, you win that game by 16.

    They lost game 3 by 9. They shot over 50% from the field (on fire) shot 50% from 3 (on fire) won the rebounds and still lost by 9. If they have just been EVEN (not even won) PIP, they would have won that game by 2 (given a close game in their favor).

    They lost game 4. They shot poorly, rebounds and pip were relatively even and MIA shot very well from the field. So be it. Those are games I can live with.

    Game 4 is a loss I can deal with. They did the rest of the crucial things well and didn't simply rely on jump shots and the other team shot better from the field. Those are the losses I can have perspective on and say " you can't win them all."
     
  10. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    That sounds fair enough, but you DO remember who was coaching the Pistons during that '05 ECF, right? :boink:

    It seems that they had one "loss that Low can live with," at least two "losses that make Low angry," and two "wins that Low doesn't feel comfortable counting on when it matters because they're mostly due to hot perimeter shooting." Is that an "LB-type series" or a "Flip Saunders-type series"? Sounds like the latter to me, but LB was the coach.

    And what about those '07 ECF numbers? Weird. Like I said, I'm surprised by them myself.
     
  11. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here's what I see:

    2007 ECF:

    Game 3 (lost by 6)
    Lost PIP 32-26
    Tied REb
    Lost FG% 45 to 49
    Lost 3pt % 33 to 46

    Game 4 (lost by 4)
    Won PIP 32 to 26
    Lost FG% 41 to 44
    Lost 3pt% 17 to 29
    Won REB

    Game 5 (lost by 2 2OT) - arguments can be made for overtime games
    Won PIP 42 to 34
    Lost FG% 45 to 43
    Lost 3pt% 43 to 21
    Won REB

    Game 6 (lost by 16)
    Won PIP 34 to 30
    Lost FG% 39 to 36
    Lost 3pt% 43 to 21
    Lost REB

    -=------------------

    What this tells me is this:
    1. If we were beating teams 50 to 30 PIP, like teams do to us, we would have had an easier time winning against CLE.
    2. We are NOT a good enough perimeter team to simply out shoot our opponents from the outside
    3. EVEN if we win PIP by a close margin we do not shoot well enough from the outside to guarantee we will win those games. Our perimeter offense cannot be trusted.
    4. We need to work on having large portions of our offense come from high percentage shots so we accomplish two things A) a high FG% for each game and B) larger margins of victory in PIP so as not to rely on our sketchy 3 pt shooting to get us through in tight games as we were soundly beaten in that series in 3pt %.
    IMO, our lack of reliable outside shooting underscores the need for a more focused approach at PIP. Maybe some of you will view our losses (even with PIP wins) as a marker than PIP doesn't matter, however, I see that even with narrow PIP wins, our outside shooting is very poor in terms of championship level play and should warrant the necessity of getting shots closer to the basket more frequently and making those narrow PIP edges into landslides and turning those game losses into wins.
     
  12. ggazoo69

    ggazoo69 All-Star Forum Donor

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    PIP does matter. And I don't need the stats to convince me (although I appreciate them). The more time you spend in the paint, the greater chance you're gonna get fouled and go to the line, eventually. This team's FT attempts are down the past few years with Saunders at the helm.

    PIP allows the team to be multi-dimensional a la Sheed. Teams that are multi-dimensional are tougher to defend. Like Sheed.
     
  13. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    5. There's a greater potential for getting the other team's key players in foul trouble. (thanks ggazoo)
     
  14. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I agree with Lowpost, even though the prior PIP stats say other wise, if we dominated that stat or even scored an average of 35+ in it we could win every game in the post season by wide margin and not get caught up in a nailbiter like we did in the first four games of last years ECF where each game could have gone either way.

    About time the post season comes around, legs are tired and and jumpers stop falling. So practice driving and getting in the paint now so you got those plays-to-the-hoop running at perfection come post season. If you are shooting jumpers now all game, you are going to be doing it in May and June if you get that far.
     
  15. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    You want to win every game in the post season by a wide margin? So do I, but we've got to be realistic, don't we? How often has any team ever done that? Maybe the '83 Sixers did...I know the '01 Lakers pretty much did. Nobody else I can think of comes to mind. Dominating games in the post-season is awfully hard to do.
     
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I watch for the nail biters, and because there is an element of risk.

    I love an underdog, and I like a surprise even more.

    If some folks are disappointed with the Pistons play or org., then might I suggest, your standards and expectations may be too high.
     
  17. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Remember the Duke championship season when Laettner hit a half court shot with time expiring to win one round. Remember Prince's block that turned that series with the Pacers. Close games (and yes, it's good if not all of them are close) remind you of the importance of every single play on the court.
     
  18. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    Well, now I think you're shifting the goalposts. Now you want landslides on PIP? Do you expect any team to be able to pull that off on any consistent basis? Is that what you think happened in previous playoff runs for the Pistons? I won't dispute that being able to generate offense on the inside is better than doing so from the outside; every basketball fan knows that.

    But what I've heard from you (Low) in multiple threads and game chats over the last couple of seasons is that this team never does well enough on the inside under Flip to win once they get deep in the playoffs, and that they always did so under Larry. Hence their two finals appearances under LB and their two ECF losses under Flip, or so goes the argument.

    I will now attempt to inject two fundamental points into the picture. For the sake of having a short abbreviation, let's summarize all your main points of what you expect this team to do--get points in the paint on offense, don't give up too many points in the paint on defense, and hit the glass on both ends, plus other related things like getting to the FT line--as "Low Ball."

    (1) The Pistons played near-perfect Low Ball in the 2004 Finals.

    I haven't looked up the exact PIP stats for that series, but here's what I remember without having to look it up, because I was paying very close attention to it at the time: the Pistons dominated the Lakers at the FT line in that series, in terms of getting to the line way more than the Lakers did. They did that in winning Game 1 by double digits, and though they lost Game 2 in OT, they still shot more FTs than the Lakers, despite both games being in LA.

    This was largely why I saw Game 2 (again, I'm recalling what I thought at the time) differently from the national media, which largely hailed the Kobe-led comeback as proof that the Lakers would win the series with magical elves and fairy dust: I saw the Game 2 loss as confirmation that the Pistons could duplicate the big advantage in the lane they had in Game 1, not as evidence that Kobe's mystical clutchness would propel the Lakers to victory. It was clear to me that coming back to the Palace, the Pistons would be able to extend their edge at the FT line even farther than what they had done in L.A., and they pretty much did it. That left the Lakers with no way of winning unless they could (a) force tons of turnovers, which the Pistons weren't coughing up, or (b) shoot something like 60% from the floor, which they couldn't do because the Pistons were playing great D. It was hardly surprising to me that the Pistons won those three in a row at home, but even if they had lost one of them, I was entirely confident in their ability to win Game 6 back in L.A. All the Lakers had going for them was the hope that Kobe would somehow get hot or that Luke Walton would somehow reproduce his sudden production of Game 2...not much to go on.

    So, even though PF.com was no more than a glimmer in Roscoe's eye at the time, I was recognizing that the Pistons were on their way to winning that series because they were almost flawlessly playing "Low Ball."

    (2) The Pistons have not played anything close to perfect "Low Ball" in any other tough playoff series over the past 4 years--not even under LB.

    Perhaps this is truly the crux of the argument--that the astonishing Pistons dominance in the '04 Finals has been retroactively designated as the way they always played in the playoffs when they were making the finals under St. Larry of The Church of Playing The Right Way. But I don't think the actual record will bear that out.

    If I haven't made this clear so far, I'm only going to focus on series that have happened "deep in the playoffs," i.e. ECF or the finals (with one exception below). None of us doubts Flip's ability to get to the ECF; the question is why he hasn't gotten farther than that, as Larry was able to do twice. We've posted the '07 ECF stats just up-thread: it turns out that the Pistons actually did reasonably well on "Low Ball" stats. Certainly they weren't dominated on them, except for getting killed on the boards in Game 6. Would they have won the series if they had dominated those stats? Almost certainly, yes...but I'm not trying to argue against that point. I'm saying that they haven't dominated them before that deep in the playoffs, even under LB, except for in the '04 Finals.

    And as we've already discussed up-thread, the '05 ECF win over Miami was a lot closer to "Flip Ball" than to "Low Ball"--two of the losses might not have happened if not for a PIP disparity in Miami's favor, as Low admitted, and I pointed out that the Pistons' wins in Game 1 and Game 7 both came in spite of enormous PIP deficits (52-30 in both games). Well, maybe it was that the Heat had Shaq and Wade, but the '04 Lakers had Shaq and Kobe.

    What about the '04 playoff wins over New Jersey and Indiana? I haven't looked at those stats at all yet. And maybe we can go back and get them to put this discussion on more solid ground, instead of just guessing (I could maybe get those stats later tonight), but here's what I remember from those series:

    Against NJ, two blowout wins at home, two blowout losses on the road, one double OT loss at home, one very close win on the road, and a Game 7 blowout at home. What will we see from the "Low Ball" stats in that series? I'm not sure, but getting blown out twice and losing once at home sure doesn't suggest a dominant performance on in-the-paint stats in every game. Maybe they did that in the games they won by blowout margins, but surely not in the ones where they got killed. Unlike the Finals, they almost lost this series.

    In the Indy series, there was a tight road win thanks to The Block, a blowout win in Indy in Game 5 (the "Low Ball" stats for that one were probably pretty good for the Pistons), and then an ugly series clincher at home where neither team broke 70, with Artest getting thrown out. Did the Pistons dominate the Low Ball stats in that series? Maybe...but I doubt it.
     
  19. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is where the lack of understanding comes in. I never once intimated that this was the way they "always" played in the playoffs. What I DID highlight is how this is what helps the team be most successful.

    For some reason people seem to want to accuse me of rewriting history, having a false memory, creating circumstances that didn't exist...or whatever.

    I guess at the end of the day it doesn't really matter. Apparently, as stated in another thread, this obviously isn't for me as I have solely an interest in winning and end results. With that in mind, I'm obviously not enjoying the ride and therefore am guilty of not being able to enjoy this team. I'm spoiled, have expectations that are too high, and lack perspective and the appreciation that this team isn't the Hawks or Sixers.

    So, I'm guessing my options are to get with the happy people or find something else to do...I'll have to figure that out.
     
  20. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    No need for us to get snippy. Obviously the two of us respect each other. Perhaps the "always" was over the top in my previous post, but you did say this up-thread:

    And you've said similar things many times before. What I'm saying is that--just maybe--they weren't really doing those things under LB either, with the major exception of the '04 Finals. It's pretty clear that the '05 ECF win didn't necessarily come from consistently forcing plays in the paint and locking down on the opponents' inside play...isn't it?
     

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