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Inside the numbers: For better or for worse?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by roscoe36, Jan 9, 2006.

  1. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I enjoy the drama of a tight battle, or complete dominance on one side of the ball. As good as the Pistons have been, they're letting teams hang around with greater and greater frequency.
    Thanks. I don't really have the time, but I make time for things I am passionate about.
    I think that may be the case for Arroyo, but not necessarily Chauncey. His turnovers were well under control late last year. The ratio benefits from the PG position being the primary enabler each possession, racking up assists at a great pace.
    The thing to perhaps worry about is that in an ideal world, the Pistons would have kept their defense and rebounding while making a nice jump on offense. The numbers seem to bear out that the move offensively is accompanied by a parallel move defensively.
    It's treading water in a different part of the pool. I don't like that after a league leading start (31 games) the margin for improvement is basically better FT%.
    I'm not sure about this. CB won the Finals MVP without Arroyo. I think that he finally grasped LB's system which is based on fundamentally sound play. It's not like Arroyo would have been teaching Chauncey how to pass, or that he threatened CB's minutes in any way. I think it was pretty obvious within his first 15 games that Arroyo was going to spend a lot of time in the doghouse and not on the court.

    Chauncey's not yet 30, but was a top draft pick. He's got pedigree and his game will continue to grow. Now if only he could grow on defense...
    Positioning, long rebounds off of jumpers, teams packing in the paint allowing the Pistons to bomb away.
    Sheed's not helping on the offensive boards by being a spot up 3 point shooter or working the high P&R.
    I don't think the last 10 game schedule can pardon tired legs. 8 home games. Only 1 back to back in the last 2 weeks.

    If the starters are tired now (31 games in), you can forget home court. It ain't happening.

    Your first 10/last 10 numbers indicate a downward trend. The situation bears monitoring.
     
  2. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Compairing KG+Pred.+Sam C. to any 3 Piston starters aint fair to anybody.
    As for our pt diff. from the 1st 10 games to the last 10 games. The league is getting better.
     
  3. MainManJoeD

    MainManJoeD First Round Draft Pick

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    I think that looking at team stats over a whole season is really meaningless. The only stat that matters now and later is Ws. There are four things that matter going forward, in order to win it all:

    1.) Securing home-court advantage for the playoffs for as many rounds as possible. We saw how much this meant last year. Means we have to win the big games and small games. It really doesn't matter whether we win 110-100 or 90-80, as long as we get the W. I don't think we should kill ourselves to get it though, at the expense of...

    2.) Keep our starting 5 in-tact. I firmly believe that any injuries to the starting 5 for significant time will devastate this team. They need to be well-rested and focused when playoffs start. Optimally, I'd like to see us get a healthy lead on home-court, then rest the starters for the last week or two. We need to get exactly n+1 wins this year, where n=number of wins for the next best team. All talk of 70 (or even 60 for that matter) is wholly destructive.

    3.) Match-ups. Stats on how we play O or D against Charlotte and Sacramento have nothing to do with how we'll play against likely playoff opponents. We need to think about how the Pistons measure up against exactly 7 teams: Cleveland, NJ, Miami, Indiana, Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio. There's a 98.7% chance that after the first-round, we'll be facing only these teams. We need to look at how we measure up against them at all positions. I think that when we play them in the real season, we need to pay particular attention to how we match-up. If we have deficiencies against a particular opponent, then Joe D needs to act. Simply acting to bring the D PPG down, or O PPG up, is meaningless.

    4.) Targeted D and O. We need to be able to score at key moments, and get stops at key moments, regardless of opponents. Last couple of years, no one is better at getting key stops. I think that this years team can (and has) shown that they can still do this when they need to. The difference between this year and last, is that we can get the O going when we need it. Game 7 last year, we just simply ran out of O options in the final minutes. I don't see that happening this year.

    The season is made up of moments. I think that we have shown this year and in years past, that we are up for the challenge in these key moments. Looking at how we fare on a statistical basis doesn't show how we'll perform at the key times.
     
  4. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    MMJD, Yes, yes and yes but noone matches up to KingJ or Wade and Shaq, Vinsanity and Carlisle can coach. Team Piston baby.
     
  5. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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    You cannot look at last season and say that last year we did this so this year we will do this. This is not the same team as last year. It LOOKS very similar but the coach is different, the assistants are different, the players are older (some more experienced) we have a few new faces, the other teams are different, etc.

    Can we expect this years pistons to magically transform into last years model in the playoffs? The answer to that is: Can they do it now? How many games has lockdown vintage detroit style D come out? How many quarters?

    IMO, as the offense goes so does our entire game. We don't make up for missed jumpers with glass dominance. We just shoot from farther away.
     
  6. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    who is an espn insider? read the main article in espn.com, to read the whole article you need insider. it's talking about exactly what we are.
     
  7. lapiston

    lapiston Team Captain

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    I agree Main Man Joe, it is important to watch how we stack up against the main contenders. I also agree that nobody could get stops like we could and that we can still do it. The difference is that we can now keep scoring. But if one or the other would break down in the playoffs, I still worry about the offense more because our new offense is not proven under pressure. I agree with LA Sam that the quick looks have cut down on turnovers. What is important is that the offense varies with quick looks and with using the clock. Defensively, I worry about the match ups with Wade and Ginobli since we will have to go through them. Shaq could be a problem depending how much he has left. He does save it for the playoffs and I think he played 40 plus minutes in game 7 last year. But he may have slowed just a tad and I expect that would allow Ben to do more with him. We will be seeing Davis, too. Joe didn't spend that money for nothing. It is hard to evaluate regular season games. Look at last year. Did anyone here think that Miami would roll us because they had played so well in the regular season? What is important is that we are on the way to gaining home court advantage.
     
  8. max

    max All-Star

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    That is a nice comparison between the 2nd half of last seaon and the start of this one since that slow start skewed the numbers.

    But that slow start did happen and the playoff seeding/homecourt were effected by it. One huge difference is the Pistons know how important every game is and are not trying to coast thinking they can turn it on whenever they want.

    In the important games like SAN and during crucial times of other games the Pistons still play great D. I trust the players once the post-seaon starts. Flip may not have much experience winning series but the players sure do.

    Only thing that has not been learned is getting a 4th big in the rotation. If this continues we risk comming up short handed once again during the most important game of the year. And It will not matter if SAN has homecourt or not.
     
  9. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    i keep thinking what you're thinking max. it's probably minny that was a losing team, even though flip's not there anymore they're still osing (they are not in the top 8 in the west and likely won't get there). the pistons though know how to win and i don't think that will be a problem. in a game the pistons really wanted to win they outrebounded there opponent by 27. if they also outrebound the spurs thursday by a lot again i won't be really worried about D as much as i am right now because if they do play great D that probably means that they can unleash there lockdown defense when it's needed.
     
  10. max

    max All-Star

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    Himat- thats true. Its hard to judge a coach who only worked on 1 team prior. Miini was not a built for the playoffs kind of team. Kind of like Dallas. As long as McHales in charge they will never get over.

    One thing I do miss in most games is the rebounding advantage. Team has been getting better but hit a tall team like Utah and its a real achillies heal. Great job out-boarding SAN though. Going to be interesting if the Pistons can do it again this Thursday.
     
  11. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    @MMJD and LAPiston, I think Slippy hit the nail on the head. These magical stops are not going to appear on command. The NBA is a deep league and the playoffs will feature the best available teams through all 4 rounds.

    Look at the #s. For every point gained on O, we are sacrificing a point on D. That's the smoking gun. You want more O? Then you better get used to compromise on the defensive end of the floor.

    @max, I thought this was the best possible comparison I could draw. Right now the Pistons are playing "with purpose". Last half season, they also played "with purpose" and a similar lineup.

    Ironically, the period to period comparison is mostly useful for historical perspective on what this lineup is capable of. The "gotcha" stat lies in this year. As our PPG go up, so does our DPPG.

    The impact of potentially losing Sheed late in the season to suspension is scary. It's more important to build towards the playoffs (like SA does) than to come out of the gate hot, IMO.

    Flip's teams have traditionally started fast. I'm concerned about their ability to maintain this pace over an 82 game schedule. Everyone's FG % is starting to come back down to earth...
     
  12. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    i think the pistons will have a much easier time rebounding against the spurs because they don't have a huge team either.
     
  13. max

    max All-Star

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    Microwave - it will be interesting to see if the Pistons turn it on even more in the 2nd half as the post-season approaches.

    There have been a few issues that can be solved with simply more effort like rebounding and playing D in the 1st half of games. Pistons turn it on defensivly every game just not until the 2nd half most games.

    Also we are going with a primary backup PG who is more offensivly orientated rather than Hunter. That has to factor in on some scale.
     
  14. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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    as much as we scrutinize the team, the Pistons office MUST be doing that on a higher level. adjustments need to be made. Flip is still learning this team and JoeD knows what needs to get done to make a successful run at the title.

    I don't think we can point fingers at the bench just yet. sure they aren't that great but the starters are 80% responsible for the characteristics of the team
     
  15. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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    Let myself quote....myself.

    I haven't seen the SA/DET game yet but all reports coming in say that we defended well. They have been consistent in the two games against SA. As a fan watching a championship run that's all I can ask for really...glimpses of the team showing it can do the things it needs to win when it counts.

    Now only if that Darko guy can get in the game...
     
  16. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    ever since that san antonio game the pistons have had there lock down D. our opponents have averaged 82.2 ppg, we have outrebounded 4 out of our last 5 opponents including the knicks which are a top rebounding teams. also the offense is still great pistons have had 30 assist games the last 4 games. i think the pistons should know that there calling card is still on the defensive end.
     
  17. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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    yeah. they've gotten to the business side of the championship run. Its good to see. i don't have concrete proof, but I think that whole 'career numbers from a big man' thing has been limited. Curry had a nice stat line but we were giving up a lot to Blount and Dampier early in the season.
     
  18. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    It's amazing how large the disparity is between the Pistons and their competition when they decide to play a complete game. I think they are starting to realize that if they play championship D early then they will in turn have the flexibility to get more rest and develop the bench. Special thanks to San Antonio for helping us flick the switch. :)
     

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