You may be right. I wouldn't feel 100% confident betting against that, but I would definitely feel > 50% confident. You seem to be going to an extreme to emphasize the point that he isn't as good as others claim. I've seen the opposite tactic when certain people state that a player will end up in the HOF. But imagine if you had to put real money on a prediction like that. Odds are that no matter how badly he plays this year, he will get another contract and he will get another chance. Look at Stromile Swift or Darko. Big men tend to stick around.