Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by roscoe36, Dec 7, 2009.
I liked Amir, but I just think Jerebko will provide a lot more in all facets of the game.
You gotta like Amir though. He's in a contract year, and he is playing like it. These last few games from him are probably going to double what he might otherwise had got at the end of March.
fine lets compare this year....
Amir 6.2 points 4.8 rebounds .5 steals .8 blocks and 3.1 fouls a game
Jonas 9.3 points 6.0 rebounds 1 steal .4 blocks and 2.9 fouls a game
Jonas beats him across the board except in the blocks.... I'll take Jonas thank you.
17.7 mpg and 27.9 mpg.
Huge difference. JJ gets 58% more playing time than Amir thanks to the Pistons being injury riddled and one of the worst teams in the NBA.
The thing is, when Amir out of the game, there is another body in there producing and the combination of the two of them exceed JJ's production in the same amount of time.
look at alot of those low min games for amir.... 5 fouls all over the place, JJ plays more mins and gets less fouls per min. i will still take JJ.
JJ fouled out of 4 games this year and Amir has fouled out 4 times in 5 years. How big of a problem can this really be? Amir had 45 games this year without foul trouble and 67 games with 4 or less.
In the 80's it was cool for Pistons big men to protect the paint with blocked shots and hard hacks.
It would be extremely easy to average 0 fouls per game. I could do that.
I average about 25 fouls per pickup game. I don't mean to, but once you start getting tired...
Especially with an air of uncertainty over Bosh, they might decide to lock him in early.
You're that guy!
Now just imagine if you're coach pulled you out after 2 of those. You wouldn't have any fun at all.
Getting bad fouls is much more than just putting yourself in jeopardy. A couple of quick early fouls puts the opponent into the bonus and they are headed to the free throw line with every subsequent foul.
This year, like every year, the opponents score drastically less points when Amir is on the court. Specifically, it was 8 less points per 48 minutes. He comes off the bench, so he's usually in at the end of the quarter when the bonus situation would occur.
Fouls happen when you're trying to stop the other team from scoring. Amir seems to take unusual pride in challenging shots and playing help defense for a player his age.
And 4 foul outs in 5 years of NBA action? That means that in 1% of his NBA games, he was forced to stop playing because of fouls. What is so magical about the 6th foul that coaches won't ever let it occur?
I think the foul out stat is irrelevant. Stats per minute matter much more.
Amir's fouling was never the issue in my mind. He was a really mediocre team defender in Detroit.
Last year, he had the highest offensive rating and the 3rd best defensive rating on the Pistons (a fraction behind Sheed and Dyess). 120 points on offense compared to 105 on defense per 100 possessions.
That's sick. It was the biggest spread on the team.
The year before that, it was 115 and 95 for a 20 point spread. The 95 meant that we were at our best defensively with him in the game.
The year before that, it was 111 and 96... also the best defensive number on the team.
Help defense is his greatest talent.
And the pattern continues. This year with Toronto, they scored 124 and gave up 110 per 100 possessions with him on the floor. The highest offensive output, the best defensive numbers from any player with more that 311 minutes of total playing time, and by far the biggest positive spread on the club.
There are lots of guys who every year generate great numbers coming off the bench. Their stats look awesome when they are macro'd up to higher minutes than they actually play.
What is missing is the context. Dice and Sheed's minutes were never the same as Amir's minutes. Amir played without pressure. Dice and Sheed had to start and play in the clutch. They had the toughest possible matchups every single night.
Stats can only tell us so much.
for me, this comparison here has been meaningless: Amir plays against of bench players; JJ has to go against of starters....
...and rule no 1: in NBA there is pretty big dropoff between starters and benchplayers.
...and stats per 48 are for fools, so to speak: nobody distributes through 48 min every game...
His statistic impressed me at the ending of the season when they started Amir in place of Bosh.
My point is that when a guy is the highest +/- force on the team, don't take him out because he has 4 fouls. Amir's method works. He challenges everything and keeps the other team's scoring down. He racks up fouls, but most of the time, the other team would have scored easy baskets on those plays anyways. So, he's not giving the other team points, he's making them earn them.
He's not fouling jump shooters, he's fouling bigs and guards who have already penetrated.
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