Josh Smith for Luol Deng?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by Mark V, Jan 2, 2014.

  1. Mark V

    Mark V Bench Warmer

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    I love J. Smoove but it really doesn't seem like the big 3 experiment is gonna end up working out so I came up with a crazy idea. How about we trade J. Smoove for Luol Deng? Deng would be a much better fit for our team and he'll bring the much needed defense we're currently lacking.

    To do this we'd probably have to absorb Carlos Boozer's contract in the process, instead of a straight up trade. So I propose we offer J. Smoove + Stuckey and Charlie V for Deng and Boozer. Boozer's contract is rather big (15 mil for 2 years) but it only has 2 years left and he can spread the floor with his mid-range game. We'd also miss Stuckey's scoring punch off the bench but Deng's defense and Boozer's solid scoring should make up for it. As a bonus, we save about 500k in cap space.

    What do you guys think?
     
  2. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Never going to happen I think is the answer there. I like Josh Smith, so I'm not really for this trade anyway.

    Detroit isn't going to offer up Stuckey and Smith for an expiring who is unlikely to sign here and a very expensive back up 4. Boozer is not playing very well so that's just not good for us. And he locks up a very large chunk of our cap space which would have to be used next year to resign at least Deng and most likely Monroe.

    Secondly, the Bull's are looking to trade out of the tax. They aren't going to take on $70m worth of contracts in order to get rid of one of the best players on their team, if not the best player.
     
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  3. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    What if we sweetened the pot with a conditional 2nd round pick?
     
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  4. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Game changer. Panda, please re-evaluate.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Getting rid of cv could come back to haunt us
     
  6. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    I'd rather keep Smith and just sign Deng this summer. That being said, I (STILL) prefer Melo over Deng. I know Deng is a MUCH better all around player but this team is in desperate need of a bonafied offensive stud that can get us buckets in crunch time. Somehow someway I'd like to see us make a trade where we get Jonas off the books and free up $4.5M. If we allow Monroe and Stuckey to walk, and we don't pick up Chauncey's option (I think it's clear that he's done).....that gives us about $26M to spend......If you can get Melo for about $18M, I think you can get Lance Stephenson or someone similar for about $8M.
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Triple double guy for that cheap?
     
  8. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Hey now, he's no StuckRod.
     
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If he's over his maturity issues, it would be great to get him. Ind is suppressing his numbers, so maybe he'd explode as a first option player.
     
  10. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    In no way shape, form, or fashion is he a #1 option kind of guy. But getting him would make us a lot better and Indy a lot worse.
     
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    May be top option on our team
     
  12. Mark V

    Mark V Bench Warmer

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    I like your idea and I saw a stat sheet that compared the tandem of Monroe/Drummond vs J. Smoove/Monroe and it was clear that J Smoove and Drummond were the better tandem, specially defensively. However, I worry that we'll regret letting Monroe walk 5 years later when J. Smoove's athleticism comes down.

    I'll try to look for the stat sheet later and post it here. It was a pretty interesting comparison.
     
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  13. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    If the Pistons allow Monroe to "walk," without getting anything back for him, Dumars deserves to be fired. And Melo's not coming to Detroit; he has no interest in a mid-market team.
     
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  14. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    We get CAPP SPAYCE!!!!!!! The greatest baller since the incomparable Rufus Henry!!!
     
  15. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    This team is a disaster with Smith and Jennings. What would it look like with Melo, Smith and Jennings?
     
  16. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    I know this is just a joke but I think the only way you get Deng is by offering a Chicago a good combination of fit and money saving. They are never going to take on Josh Smith's contract and he is just a bad fit given that they have a cheap, on the rise 4 in Taj Gibson who they want to play more. And why shouldn't they? He pretty much outplays a $15m a year Boozer. And don't forget Mirotic is waiting in the wings.

    I think that we try and involve the Charlotte Bobcraps. NBA Trade Machine - ESPN

    We get Deng, but we gotta give up something good for him. Monroe + a tasty expiring doesn't seem unreasonable. In return, we have to take on some garbage from Charlotte, namely, 3 years of Brendan Haywood riding the pine.

    The Bobcats get some more scoring punch in their front line from Boozer, who will space well with Jefferson, and he doesn't play terrible D either. They free up the stupid money they gave Haywood (who we should waive).

    The Bulls get the prize though. They get $21m worth of cap wiggle at the end of the year, an absolute guarantee to be under the tax line next year. In addition, they get a very tradeable expiring in Monroe, who they can probably either flick for picks or to get a little bit of bench scoring from say, the Lakers? They also pick up Cody Z, who has looked terrible in Charlotte (who doesn't?), but is a very talented player and in my mind, a far more capable back up to Noah than Nazr Mohammed.

    Maybe a second rounder to sweeten the pot from Detroit to Chicago.

    You don't let Moose walk. You trade him and Jerebko for a bigger expiring minimum.

    Look, I'm all for Carmelo Anthony. The guy gets buckets. But he is getting a max contract. Not $18m from Detroit. Max contract. $20+/yr. Stephenson? Given Stuckey's play this year (if it keeps up) I'd rather just offer him 3yrs/21m and see if he takes it.

    The reason you go for Deng is because you know what you get. He isn't a big scorer (but can be), but is a fantastic perimeter defender and is pretty damn consistent small forward, which happens to be our position of need. Melo is best at the 4 and that's a fact. We can offer Deng another 14/15m a year contract and know that he adds something more than just 20FGA a game.

    He has been playing well, sure, but the guy isn't that good. He is just scrappy. We have Jerebko for that.

    Lets not be too harsh. We were a .300 team before and now we are a .300 team. Comparatively, not a disaster.

    Melo adds huge scoring punch, especially in 4th quarters. We need people who show up in the 4th, and not to throw the ball at the front of the ring a la Smith/Jennings.
     
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  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I only have 5-man unit data through 12/15, but what I have doesn't really support that. I am taking my data from 82games, and I'm assuming that is reliable. If we examine the top 20 5-man combinations, then that takes us through every combination that has been used for more than 8.6 minutes (total). I feel like its OK to ignore the various other minor experiments that Cheeks threw on the court if they are less than that.

    Here is what I show as the weighted averages (had to use excel to generate):

    With Monroe and Smith on the court, but Drummond off the court:
    Pistons score 99.5 points per 100 possessions and give up 101.6 points per 100. eFG = .435 to .444. We get 49.5% of the rebounds. Paint scoring = 38.4% to 34.3%.

    With Drummond and Smith on and Monroe off:
    Pistons score 107.9 and give up 107.2. eFG = .479 to .451. We get 52.8% of the rebounds. We score in the paint less than the opposition (28.6% vs 38.0%).

    With Monroe and Drummond on and Smith off:
    Pistons score 97.8 and give up 109.2. eFG .431 to .497. We get 49% of the rebs. We get more FTs and win the turnover battle. Paint scoring is 36% to 37.5%.

    So, with these limited samples, Monroe + Smith is our best defensive combo. Monroe + Drummond is our weakest. Drummond + Smith is our best offensive and best net.


    Here are some other splits:

    Performance with Pope on the court with only 2 out of 3 of Smith/Monroe/Drummond:
    Pistons score 113.2 and give up 102.5. eFG is .489 to .485. We get 55.6% of the rebs. We win the FT war by 4 attempts and win the turnover battle.


    Performance with Singler mixed with only starters (Jennings/ Pope/ Smith/ Monroe/ Drummond minus any 1 of them):
    Pistons score 106.3 and give up 91.0. eFG is .493 to .454. We get 54.1% of the rebounds. We score 43% in the paint to 40%. We get 5.9 more FTA than the opposition and win the turnover battle.

    I show that one because it's our best peak at what putting him in the starting lineup might be like.

    However, keep in mind that the season is young and these sample sizes get small when you only look at specific combos. Think about the number of games and the available minutes and then looking at 20 different combos. So I'm not going to draw conclusions from this about what it means going forward. But it is interesting to see what has actually happened with different combinations to this point. Sadly, I'd like to see a sample size about 10 times larger than what we have to work with, and that won't be possible until the season is over.

    The games since 12/15 were mixed, but were more horrible than good, so I'm not sure how these would look with those games factored in. Probably much worse for Drummond since he was so negative in them. We were 3-5 in the missing games and beat Indiana, but got wiped by Washington.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2014
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  18. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    So, you are saying that Singler should start and play 48 minutes while we rotate the other players in the remaining 4 slots?
     
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Precisely.

    Btw, the Bynum/Drummond combination is interesting. Despite getting out free throw attempted by 6.8 per 100 possessions, they are still a net positive when they share the court together with a positive eFG differential, rebounding advantage, and points in the paint advantage.

    One other interesting this is that Stuckey has very good +/- when NOT on the court with Singler. They must be dorking up each other's vibes because Singler is very good without Stuckey too. Together, they are absolutely brutal with a relatively big sample size. 98 points to 110. The real problem with that combo seems to be that the team's eFG is abysmal at .424. We slightly lose the rebounding battle when we normally dominate in that to make up for other things.


    Conclusion: Both Stuckey and Singler are valuable, but try to keep them separated.


    Start: Jennings/ Pope/ Singler/ Smith/ Monroe
    Bench: Bynum/ Stuckey/ Mejia / Smith/ Drummond

    Finish with: Jennings/ Pope/ Singler/ Smith/ Drummond

    In garbage time, insert the Italian Jesus.
     
  20. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I don't recall Smith and Drummond playing together all that often. I know the did well together against Milwaukee recently, but nothing else stands out.

    Wowza to the Monroe/Drummond's #'s!
     

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