Missed Free Throw's.....so costly

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by boozy, Dec 22, 2008.

  1. boozy

    boozy First Round Draft Pick

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    I wish a GM (Joe D) would have the balls to negotiate into a players contract that any time a player's free throw percentage dropped below 75% that each miss there after would cost him $1000. I don't know if this is legal by NBA standards but man I hate watching people miss free throws. I mean for EFF's sake they are FREE!! And while I am on my soap box does anyone else think it sure be a major part of Currys' coaching scheme to have stuck and Iverson continually driving to the hoop to try and draw contact for the foul?
  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Yes to Curry's strategy. He is just sandbagging early in the season.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here's a weird philosophical question.

    Which is more costly, a missed FT or a missed 3-pointer?
  4. Blue

    Blue First Round Draft Pick

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    I say a missed 3 is more costly, because:

    1. You miss out on a potential 3 points. With a missed ft, you only miss out on a potential 1 point.

    2. If you don't secure the offensive rebound, you miss out on the chance to possibly take a higher percentage shot. However, the shot you could have taken instead of the 3 could also be lower percentage. This point is probably pretty weak.

    3. Long rebounds lead to transition opportunities for the other team. It is easier to set your defense after the other team rebounds a missed ft.

    Boozy, how about a player like Jason Richardson? He current leads the league in 3pt fg % (according to nba.com) with 48.2%. However, he shoots 75% on fts.

    Therefore, his chance to make 3 consecutive fts would be:

    0.75*0.75*0.75=0.422

    or 42.2%. So... should you foul Jason Richardson everytime he takes a 3?
  5. Darth Tater

    Darth Tater All-Star Forum Donor 6x Fantasy Champion

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    1. I would assume it's not legal by NBA standards. What next? Fine them for bad passes and other turnovers?

    2.Yes, it is frustrating to watch them miss but it's not like they do it on purpose. The fine would just make them more nervous, I would imagine, and would lead to more misses.

    3. It's bad enough watching guys shoot jumpers when they should drive to the hoop. Don't you think a potential fine hanging over their head would discourage them even more from taking it to the rim with the potential of getting fouled and fined?
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    We went through a similar analysis a while back when we were thinking about end game situations.

    With the unfouled 3 point shot, there are 2 possibilities. 52.8% chance that he gets 0 points and 48.2% chance that he gets 3 points. So, the expected value (EV) per shot is 1.446 points.

    With 3 consecutive free throws, there are 8 possible ordered outcomes (not counting the possibility of a rebound off the 3rd miss).
    SCENARIO-----------odds----Value
    1) make/make/make- .421875 V= 3 points.
    2) make/make/miss- .140625 V= 2
    3) make/miss/miss- .046875 V= 1
    4) make/miss/make- .1410625 V= 2
    5) miss/miss/miss- .015625 V= 0
    6) miss/miss/make- .046875 V= 1
    7) miss/make/make- .1410625 V= 2
    8) miss/make/miss- .046875 V= 1

    The weighted average = 2.25 points, which is the EV (much higher than not fouling).
    Another way to think about it is that the EV for each free throw is 0.75 points, so 0.75 + 0.75 + 0.75 = 2.25.

    So, the most likely outcome is that the player will make all 3 free throws. Over time, the player will average 2.25 points each time they are fouled during the act. However, if their team is down 3 with 1 second left and this player starts shooting a 3 pointer, you are better off fouling him, because then they only have a 42% chance of evening the score vs. a 48% chance if you let him get the shot off.

    The conclusion would be to avoid fouling a 3-point shooter like J-Rich during the course of the game, but don't be afraid to foul him on a last second play when you are up 3 points.



    An exaddurated way to think about this would be to imagine that the 3-point line was really the 100-point line. Your team is up 100 points with 2 seconds left. Manu Ginobili gets the ball and starts hoisting up the 100-pointer. Do you let him take a 40% chance of tieing the game, or do you foul him and hope that he doesn't make 100 free throws in a row to tie you?

    In this situation, it is obvious that you foul him on the nose very aggressively.
  7. MACKSnare519

    MACKSnare519 First Round Draft Pick

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    Probably can't fine them for the FTs... But what they(the team) should fine players for is getting technicals. We've had at least one in eight consecutive games.
  8. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    i don't know about legal, and i don't know which is more costly (missed FT or missed 3FGA), but THIS DRIVES ME ABSOLUTELY CRAZY. It falls into the category of PRACTICE, EFFORT, DISCIPLINE. There is ZERO, no good reason in the world that someone with the strength to get to the ball to the rim from 15 feet away should shoot less than 75 % from the line. If someone is, then they need to practice it. You're right Boozy! They ARE free!

    Of course, as of today, the team is average 18.0 for 23.5 from the line per game for a pct. of .765, which I'm basically okay with. And all our players who get significant numbers of attempts per game are around or above 80. So, while I think this has really hurt us on occasion, I guess I can't argue that it's a general problem.
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Fatigue and/or addreneline plays a big factor in missed FT's.
  10. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Pressure is another big factor. Watch Tim Duncan shoot free throws at the end of a game. He is not great to begin with, but he is terrible at crunch time.

    Rather than fines for missing free throws, I'm sure you could include an incentive clause to a guy's contract if he shoots a certain percentage. I prefer the carrot over the stick...
  11. Pistons Lover

    Pistons Lover First Round Draft Pick

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    But what if you lose by 1 point? Wouldn't you want that free throw to have counted??

    But anyway, I hate when players miss free throws because they are free. I esp. hate when a point guard misses a free throw, I mean come on you are the guard of the points (get it!!) :pound: Free throws are more costly cause you can miss almost every three pointer you put up and still win but you miss almost every free throw, I bet you will definitely lose that game.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    So then, would 2-pointers be the most costly of all, because no team has ever missed all of them and won a game?
  13. Pistons Lover

    Pistons Lover First Round Draft Pick

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    Ha, NO cause both teams can miss badly and one of them will still win. But if a team is having a bad shooting night and they somehow get to the line more than that other team and they miss most of their free throws, they'll probably lose that game. That what I was saying.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Not sure where I'm going with this. I think it's a trick question.

    But let's say a player averages 33% from the line and 66% from the free throw line.

    If this player misses a 3, then he gets 0 points, which is 1 point less than his expected value (.33 x 3 = 1).

    If this player misses a free throw, then he gets 0 points, which is .66 points less than his expected value.

    So, in this respect, the 3 point miss is more costly. Conversely, the 3-point make would be more beneficial.


    However, if the other players on the team average 40% from deep, then this player costs the team 0.2 points every time he attempts a 3-pointer on average (opportunity cost). So, not only are his misses costly, but so are his attempts.

    Again, not sure this can be answered.
  15. Nemo

    Nemo The Great Predictor Forum Donor

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    These guys should have the half-court in their basement so they can practice free throws even during the off season. With what they make, and the potential for increased income, I'm surprised most players don't have these.
  16. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    When I was in high school, our coach saved FT's for the end of practice. He made us run a couple of suicides. And then he'd put us at the line, one at a time, to shoot a one-and-one. If you missed the front-end, the whole team had to run another two suicides. If you missed the back-end, the whole team had to run one more suicide. Then onto the next player. he started with the players least likely to be shooting FT's when tired or at the end of games and then moved his way through the line up.

    Not a perfect idea, but not a bad one in that it helped us learn to stick with our form even when tired (after the suicides) and under pressure (knowing all our teammates would have to run if we missed).
  17. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    Our coach did the same exact thing.
    ...and it worked!
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I always thought that a college team or NBA team's practice facility could also simulate opposing crowds for free throw practice, and possibly regular practice. You would need a sound system to blare crowd noise and a video projector showing something like this behind the basket:

    [​IMG]
  19. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    On 60 minutes last week, there was a segment on Pete Carroll. Apparently, he simulates fan noise through speakers during USC football practices.
  20. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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