Moving Forward

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by Slippy, Mar 11, 2012.

  1. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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    Its been a rough season for Pistons fans but at this point I'm rather optimistic about the direction of the team. Here's why I'm gonna mix up a tall glass of kool aid and knock it back.

    Lawrence Frank: I don't know if the Pistons would have won a championship with Frank during the Flip years but I think we may have gotten to the finals one more time. Key problems that bit the Going to Work team in the ass like rebounding, points in the paint and drawing fouls are relatively strong areas for this current team. Frank is quick to use time outs to control momentum. Aside from Daye, team morale looks good despite losing. Frank's been doing more with less. I'm interested to see what he can accomplish with a full offseason and a full training schedule.

    Floor Spacing: At the start of the season we looked like a bunch of really good pickup players vs. an NBA team. The results were horrible. As the season wore on, the team got to put more time on the offensive end. You can see nowadays that the players have the floor spacing concept clicking in their heads. We still play a 2 man game with the other 3 standing around. With the practice time as it is, I think Frank is keeping it simple. Given more time, I am confident he can introduce motion concepts where we see regular movement off the ball and guys cutting to the basket. JJ would benefit greatly from this.

    Scrappy defense: We have a front line that gets dunked on regularly by forwards and centers who play above the rim. Still, we're getting stops and forcing turnovers. What really kills us is cold shooting. That puts too much pressure to continue getting stops and if a guy heats up on the other team, its over. We still have problems with guys cutting to the lane and that's because we have no real shot blocking threat. Our defense is a team thing. I don't think there can be a whole lot of improvement there without bringing in some defensive talent.

    Monroe: Greg was playing his ass off at the start of the season. He's picking his moments more now. He's also getting caught up complaining to the refs. Still, he's drawing attention from up to 3 defenders in the post. Against weak front lines, he can be dominant. Against tall, athletic opponents, he struggles mightily. That coupled with Stuckey's rise as the focal point of our offense has reduced Greg's role on offense. Watching the Lakers game, I could not help but think that if we had a big next to Monroe that could block shots and take attention off of him as a scoring threat, it would open up everything for the team. We should be giving the ball to Greg at the high post more and working around him. He becomes a triple threat at the free throw line area.

    Knight: I'm not going to lie and say that I've seen flashes of point guard brilliance because I haven't. What I have seen is a real competitor with an extra gear that he needs to figure out how to get into regularly. The good thing about this is that if you got the ball out of his hands, the offense would still function unlike when teams trapped Chauncey. He does need to improve his ball handling. He has the speed to break the trap but was caught several times by Memphis. I have a lot of confidence in this kid because you can see his brain working night in and night out. He sees more than just his man on defense which is why he rebounds so well.

    Stuckey: There's been a lot of talk around the internet about Stuckey and his super collider attack mode. during the Toronto game he showed the pull up and medium range jumper. Its good to have a guy that can score but Stuckey does so sometimes at the expense of the team. Maybe Monroe is struggling, I haven't made a connection between Monroe's struggles and super collider attack overboard. Stuckey has carried the team out of the hole and back in again. Sometimes in the same game. Even when he's hot, he has to involve Monroe. It will benefit him more in the long run.

    Maxiell: Jason's come up big. For all the dunks and blocks, its the 15 foot open jumper that I love the most. The thing about starting is he's with Monroe who will get double team or guys cheating off to cover him leaving Maxiell wide open. He's got the confidence and that shot is dropping. You need that contribution from Maxiell and Jerebko to take the pressure off your main guys. Imagine a 15/8 guy at this spot vs. a 6/5 guy. The thing is, we need a guy that plays around the basket and can hit the 15 footer not a guy that tweets from the perimeter and can hit the 15 footer if he takes a dribble in.

    Like the US economy, recovery is fragile. A botched draft pick could derail this rebuild permanently. But they're far from a collection of hopeless scrubs waiting for a superstar to bail them out. Jerebko could become an elite 6th man a la Shane Battier. He's got the athleticism, the hustle and range on his jumper. He's got great body control and a high motor. So I'm optimistic despite the sometimes demoralizing results.
    Walter, BallDon'tLie, jzchen and 3 others like this.
  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I think things are definitely on the upswing, as fans we're so damn impatient. I am impressed by everything I have seen from Monroe so far. I think he will be better than Rasheed and Ben Wallace.
    S.J. and Nemo like this.
  3. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    What about Sir William Wallace?
  4. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    This guy?

    [​IMG]

    The image is a montage.
  5. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    I like what I see.
    I can see the direction this team is headed.
    When at least 1 of our PFs (either Max or JJ) has a good solid game and we get a good to great game from just one of our starting guards, we're legitimately formidable.

    I have this little system I use to define how good a player is, it's a 1-5 system. The great ones play at a high level every 4.5 out of 5 games, really good players:4 of 5, good players: 3 of 5, solid players: 2.5 of 5, borderline players: 2 of 5. Jonas and Max play hard EVERY game but that hard work doesn't always find its way into the box score, they're what I would consider 2.5 players. Stuckey and Monroe are moving into the area of guys who brings it every 3 out of 5 games, in an 82 game season that means they bring it about 50 games/yr. When we get one player to do that (BK, a free agent of draft pick) we'll be a .500 team in playoff contention looking to grow into a champion.
    basketbills likes this.
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Nice thread. Can really start a lot of interesting conversations.

    I've been struggling with when I see defensively when I watch the games vs what the stats show. Basically I think that we are a decent defensive team while the stats show that we are one of the worst.

    For instance, we are 3rd worst in terms of giving up FG%. This is one of the key stats to measure defenses by and we stink at it.

    Our defensive rating is 24th out of 30, but we all know that we play at a slow pace and that make the defensive numbers look better than they are.

    However, as Larry Brown taught us, defense depends on offense. If the team scores efficiently, the defense is always back in position and can frustrate the other team. If bad shots are taken, then the defense is scrambling and will give up easy hoops. Since we have a bottom 3 offense, I'm wondering how much the defensive figures are skewed by the bad offense.

    There is one key stat that really might point to what I'm getting at- No team in the NBA allows their opponent to get fewer rebounds than the Pistons.

    #1: DET
    #2: MIA
    #3: LAC
    #4: CHI

    Most of this comes by having superior positioning on the defensive end and having bigs with good hands as well as aggression. Nice job by Monroe mainly, but also Maxiell, Jerebko, and help by the guards.

    I just see a defense that is at worst average and at best, better than average... I just can't prove it. Maybe I'm wrong and we're just getting nickeled and dimed to death because we don't block shots.
  7. round

    round All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Do you by chance have a break down of your numbers to compare how we looked the first half the season vs the second half so far? The first month of the season just destroyed any chance for our numbers to be respectable in any way.... would be curious how we actually stand up now.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is the best I can find (last 10 game split): http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/12/1/pts/6-1

    This shows that over the last 10 games, we have the 21st best FG% allowed at .459 (compared to .400 by PHI) and we have the 9th best points per game allowed at 94.0 (compared to 87.4 by PHI). The ppg allowed isn't quite as good after you would adjust for pace, but still nice.

    The problem is that our schedule was easy: SAC, BOS, CLE, TOR, PHI, CHA, MEM, LAL, ATL, TOR. We should have gone 6-4 over this stretch based on records and we did just that.

    I'm just starting to appreciate how good Philly's defense is by the way. Doug Collins is turning to be a nice hire by them.
  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The fact that opponents have a high FG% against Detroit leads to fewer offensive rebounds to be had. Plus, since we play at one of the slowest paces in the league, this leads to fewer rebounds in general.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Even looking at it on a percentage basis, we are still a really good rebounding team. Our opponents have rebounded 405 of the 1,657 available missed shots this season, so they rebound on the offensive boards at a rate of .244. If our "opponents" in general were an NBA team, that would place them at 27th on the list in terms of Oreb%.

    A good way to look at our team is to consider the "4 factors" of offense and defense:

    OFFENSE-
    eFG%: we are 29th (horrendous)
    Tov%: we are 28th (Oh my Jeez to quote my kid)
    Oreb%: 5th!
    FT/FGA: 10th (so we get to the line a lot, which helps to balance the poor shooting).

    DEFENSE-
    eFG%: 28th
    Tov%: 12th
    Dreb%: 10th
    FT/FGA: 25th

    Summary of our team:
    We can't shoot straight and we can't defend. We turn it over a lot and we cause turnovers a little better than average. We are great at rebounding on the offensive end and better than average on the defensive end. We get to the line a lot and we put the other team on the line a lot.

    We are as good as our record.
  11. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    Out FG% is pitiful...and out FT% is respectable because we prefer collisions to passing.
  12. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Of course, a real simple and crude measure is to just look at the points:

    Points scored: 89.3 - 28th/30
    Points allowed: 95.2 - 14th/30

    This would indicate the offense stinks and the defense is mediocre. Perhaps the defense gets overrated here because of the slow pace of the Pistons offense.
  13. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    I thought you were singling out BenGo there. My bad.
  14. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The slightly more advanced way to look at it is "points scored per 100 possessions" to adjust for pace. We are 24th defensively at that measure with 106.8 points allowed. On offense, we are 28th with 100.3 scored.

    So, the pace adjustment knocks us down 10 spots on the defensive rankings.
  16. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    Sounds like we need a pacemaker............
  17. linwood

    linwood All-Star

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    That sounds more like it.

    These Pistons are definitely improving, but I can't imagine that they are in the top half of the league defensively.

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