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Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by blueadams, Mar 8, 2013.
We could throw in Santa Clause and a bag of popcorn too........
I'd actually prefer to not have Lebron on the team. If I wanted to root for him, I'd already be doing it.
"Untradeable" is different from "untouchable." BoT is untradeable - no team would take him unless you gave them something worth their while. Lebron is untouchable - the Heat wouldn't give him up for anything. And don't reformulate the question - if you're going to say "except the cream of the cream," you should define the cream of the cream. As far as Noah and Varejao, I'll take actual production over hypothetical production, thank you. Player Comparison Finder | Basketball-Reference.com
Noah would be tough to pass-up. Sideshow would be easy to pass-up.
It's funny, people complain about the team but shoot down any trade because they hold on to the hope that certain players will develop into GREAT players, yet complain about Joe when Joe does the exact same thing. THEN, when we're stuck with the Rodney Stuckey's of the world everyone wants to REALLY complain. Newsflash, before Rodney Stuckey was Rodney Stuckey, he was Brandon Knight. I remember last year when I saw we we're going to have some cap space this summer, I said the SG to target was James Harden........folks thought I was insane and felt like James Harden was garbage.........
A 19 year old 7 footer with the 13th best PER in the entire NBA might be an exception. Theoretically, here are the guys that you should consider trading him for (guys with higher PERs): 1) Lebron 2) Durant 3) Chris Paul 4) Wade 5) Parker (too old) 6) Lopez 7) Griffin 8) Duncan (too old) 9) Harden 10) Bryant (too old) 11) Westbrook 12) Melo Subtracting out the elderly, you have 9 players in the pool. 1 of them is a center, which is our position of greatest need if Drummond leaves. So, do you want to trade a 19 year old Drummond for a 22 year old Lopez and take on the salary? Or do you want to ride what we have throughout his incredibly cheap rookie contract (because he fell in the draft)?
There's really only 4 names on that list that I would consider.
Parker, Duncan, Bryant and who?
Hey man, Stuck never had Knight's drive and passion for the game. Knight may not have what we need, but at least the kid's got some fire in him. Stuckey makes CV look like a ferocious competitor. And it's been that way since day 1.
2nd year Stuck and the 2013 version of Brandon Knight are indeed similar. Both of these guys have (had) some tools but have a long way to go before being remotely qualified to be handed a starting spot. The only difference is that one of these guys is a weak-minded, one-dimensional tweener who flunked his way out of consideration to be on a major Division-1 college team and ended up going to a small directional school in Washington. This player went on to have a heralded but seriously mediocre pro career where he has showed absolutely NO growth as a player and has been repeatedly benched by multiple coaches for being a freaking malcontent. The other guy had reportedly considered Harvard (academic scholarship) but elected to enroll and learn at one of the most elite college hoops programs in the country. After leading his team to a final-4 in his freshmen year, he went to the NBA where he displayed an excellent attitude, work ethic and ability to learn his craft. He has never been benched for disciplinary reasons but it's been reported that his coaching staff has a problem getting him to leave the gym after workouts. Stuckey is a talented player who lacks that certain 'something' to get him over the hump toward NBA stardom. ...he'll always be average. Knight is a somewhat promising player with a hell of a desire to get better. He's already displayed more leadership qualities in a year and a half than Super Collider has in 6 seasons. Do you think you would EVER see freaking Rodney Stuckey risk life, limb and dignity to go up and challenge a DeAndre Jordan dunk attempt during a 20 point blowout??? I'll agree with you that Brandon Knight has a long way to go but there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that you can compare him to Rodney Stuckey. He may never be a top-10 PG but he's way too smart to end up being the mediocre waste of talent that Rodney has become.
That's the thing, though... Drummond's PER is off the bench, against bench players. He averages 19.6 minutes per game while nobody above him averages less than 30 (if you round Duncan's 29.6 up to 30). He comes in and plays against backups, and that makes a big difference. Let's take a look at the games in which he's collected 10+ rebounds: 11/23 Toronto (13 in 24 minutes) (1 point win) (Ed Davis) 11/25 New York (11 in 19 minutes) (21 point loss) (Marcus Camby/Sheed) 12/3 Cleveland (20 in 12 minutes) (9 point win) (Tyler Zeller/Anderson Varejao) 12/5 Golden State (12 in 31 minutes) (7 point loss) (Andres Biedrins/David Lee) 12/11 Denver (11 in 21 minutes) (7 point loss) (Timofey Mozgov/Javale McGee) 12/21 Washington (14 in 21 minutes) (32 point win) (Jan Vesely) 12/22 Washington (11 in 24 minutes) (9 point win) (Vesely) 12/26 Atlanta (12 in 36 minutes) (7 point overtime loss) (Al Horford) 12/28 Miami (10 in 23 minutes) (10 point win) (Anthony/Chris Bosh?) 1/1 Sacramento (11 in 21 minutes) (6 point loss) (James Johnson) 1/11 Milwaukee (11 in 17 minutes) (16 point win) (Udoh) 1/17 New York (10 in 23 minutes) (15 point loss) (Steve Novak) 1/22 Orlando (11 in 24 minutes) (15 point win) (E'Twaun Moore) 1/29 Milwaukee (18 in 28 minutes) (27 point loss) (primary opposing big: Ekpe Udoh) 1/30 Indiana (14 in 24 minutes) (21 point loss) (Ian Mahahini) 2/3 Lakers (11 in 23 minutes) (1 point loss) (World-Peace?) Those are some outstanding per/minute numbers, but they came mostly in garbage time and/or against inferior competition. He doesn't spend much time banging against starting centers like Howard, Okafor, Cousins, Sanders, Hibbert, Chandler, and Vucevic, and those guys are going to eat into his stats. Now, I recognize that stats aren't everything, but if we're comparing PER, then that has to be taken into account - let it be mentioned that Lee, Varejao and Horford (the three guys on this list - other than Chris Bosh, who's really more of a PF - that I would put anywhere near a list of the top 10 centers in the league) all outrebounded Drummond when they were on the court together. As far as position, I don't care if the Pistons need a center... they need a PG, SG, and SF, too. Give me a guy that has done it night in and night out against the best players in the league rather than a guy that came off the bench and sucked up rebounds because nobody else on his unit could do it and his teammates were standing at the three point line pulling defenders out there. We don't know how he'll fit in with Monroe - early returns have been mixed. We don't know what he'd look like in an offense that didn't give him LOTS of space to maneuver and give point guards LOTS of space to drive and lob. He can't shoot free throws and doesn't have much range on his jump shot. Could he be the next Dwight Howard? Yes. But why would you rather take a chance on that happening rather than having the proven thing? The truth is that we prefer potential. We go ape-nuts over it. Anyone that COULD be great is GOING to be great. It's how we're wired. Of course, we're also wired with something called confirmation bias, to which I could be currently susceptible. We'll see, I guess.
Good post, BDL.
I did a lot of experimental economics in the day - one of the main things we focused on was the idea of a rational agent. It is interesting because one of the things that I found, was that confirmation bias wasn't the problem, it was the initial decision. It is now well known that increased time given to players has a near linear correlation with production, sometimes it is even exponential - see Harden, James He makes our offense a full 5 points better when he is on the floor?
If I had a choice between keeping Monroe or Drummond, I would take Andre in a heartbeat. He is a difference-maker. His stats are good, but there is also something called the "eye test." You can just watch the game and see what an impact he makes. People will go out and buy a ticket to come watch Andre Drummond play. I doubt that is true for Monroe.
This is totally true... Drummond is just way more exciting. Pistons games are kind of excruciating to watch right now.
I will say this... when Drummond comes back, the Pistons will have three guys with 19+ PERs. That's good. Quick quiz... excluding players that have played less than 10 games, there are 5 teams in the league with three or more players with PERs above 19. Can you name them? (Highlight the section below) Miami Heat (James, Wade, Bosh) New York Knicks (Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler) San Antonio Spurs (Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Splitter) (4 guys!) New Orleans Hornets (Davis, Anderson, Lopez) Detroit Pistons (Drummond, Monroe, Calderon) Strange group, huh?
I would like to see these cited.
For what you are referring to, there was a bunch of articles on ESPN around the time that Harden left - most saying that his production should increase with an increase in minutes blah blah.
I'm going to address this aswell. I know that you are trying to seperate the two, but the outcome is the same. If a GM simply will not take on a guy in a trade (lets say BoT), he is as untradeable as the guy who the GM simply won't include (lets say Lebron). In both cases, the net effect is that the untouchable/untradeable player remains at their current team. Saying the cream of the cream was just repeating what you said, sans the list of names. The people who GM's will hang up on you for asking about is very, very short 1 - LBJ 2 - Durant 3 - The Spurs trio 4 - Dirk Nowitzki 5 - Blake Griffin (n.b i haven't included CP3 because at this point, w/o an extension, there is a possiblility of picking him up for assets) 6 - Derrick Rose pre ACL tear. (and maybe now, we will see) For every other player in the league, GM's will entertain a call about a trade. Chances are low, but they will listen. Lets look at it the other way round. Here are three situations where you will get hang-ups. 1- Pre Amnesty Gilbert Arenas 2 - Pre Amnesty Rashard Lewis 3 - Amare Stoudemire 4 - Joe Johnson next year You won't even get words after the name out. My point being, that they are one and the same. Andre Drummond is untouchable, not because Dumars has turned off his blackberry (he hasn't) he is untouchable because there is simply not a deal out there which would occur that gives you enough value back. And this is because he is on the first year of a rookie deal - but is 3rd in ORR, 10th in DRR, 5th in REBR, and to top it off, 13th in PER. You can talk about production against scrubs blah blah - but that argument doesn't hold water. Rotations always have overlap. He isn't constantly playing GT against 5 Kwame Browns on morphine. He has come in to shut down starters, and built up big leads against second units. This isn't about potential. This guy is delivering. Even if this was his ceiling, you are talking about a better rebounder, better defender and more efficient offensive player than Joakim Noah. Who is more athletic and who people will pay to see. That is pretty untouchable.
So having 16 games with 10 or more rebounds playing 19 MPG off the bench (in how many games?) is a bad thing? Drummond grabbed 2-3 defensive rebounds a game that they would not have gotten the past 3 years. It's not right to suggest he padded his stats in GT. (He doesn't play GT.) It is legitimate to bank on his potential now. In a few years it may not be.
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