This could be right. I think it's right. But, there is algebra and probability involved and those always confuse me. Then again, I could just be trying to get prof to drop Nocioni. Here’s the logic for Monday nights. There are 22 Mondays with games during the regular season 135 games are played on Mondays That’s averages to 6.1 games each Monday night Double that to get the average number of teams that play on Monday – 12.3 Divide by 30 to get the fraction of teams that play on Monday – 40.9% Multiply by 14 to get the average number of fantasy players you have available on Monday nights – 5.7 Seems o.k. so far. Here is the full week… Monday – 5.7 Tuesday – 6.1 Wednesday – 10.3 Thursday – 2.4 Friday – 10.7 Saturday – 8.0 Sunday – 5.6 Thursday is the odd night out. You will have the most players (on average) playing on Wednesday and Friday nights. Now, suppose you don’t have 14 players from 14 teams. Suppose you have two players from the same team. Divide by 30 to get the fraction of teams that play on Monday – 40.9% Multiply by 13 to get the average number of fantasy players you have available on Monday nights – 5.3 40.9% of the time your 14th man will be available, but 59.1% of the time he will not be So, add .409 and subtract .591 (for when your duplicated team isn’t playing) Get an average of 5.1 players available on Monday nights 5.1 is only 90% of the average number of players available to a team with no duplicates If you have three players from the same team it gets worse. On Monday nights you will only average 79% of the available players as a team with no duplicates. If you have two players from the same team and 12 from unique teams you will have the following percentages of players available as a team with 14 players all from different teams. Monday – 90% Tuesday – 91% Wednesday – 97% Thursday – 65% Friday – 98% Saturday – 95% Sunday – 89% If you have three players from the same team… Monday – 79% Tuesday – 81% Wednesday – 95% Thursday – 31% Friday – 96% Saturday - 89% Sunday - 79% Feel free to use at your own risk.