Home Phoenix Suns Saturday, January 11, 2014

Discussion in 'January 2014' started by roscoe36, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Maybe because you cherry picked the data by removing the 2 games that he was most positive? The records of those teams is comparable to our record. It's not like we're too good for them and those were practice scrimmages for us.

    Facts: We play losing basketball when he's in the game. We play losing basketball when he's on the bench. Better players than him have worse +/-'s this season, like Andre Drummond, Siva, Jerebko, and Mitchell.

    He's +13 in our last 4. Does that mean he suddenly got good again?

    I'll let the coach make my case for me:
    So, Cheeks seems to like his consistency, effort level, floor spreading abilities, fast break threat, defensive ability, and defensive versatility (guarding multiple positions). Cheeks reportedly told Pope that he wants him to emulate his game after Singler's.

    Why do these horrible coaches like this guy so much? Why hasn't their quant departments or scouts informed them of how bad he is? Why doesn't Dumars trade him to take away the option to incorrectly play him from the coach's arsenals?

    Mysteries abound.

    It wouldn't be too surprising to see Kyle crack the starting rotation in the next month.
     
  2. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    I see you avoided my question. What is your theory? Last 4 games includes, as you know, the Knick game, and the 76r game. Again, if he is such a fine player, why, against any halfway decent teams of late, do we get around an average of minus 11 when he is on the floor? PS, quoting Cheeks to me only dims my view of Singler even more. Not a fan of his so far.
     
  3. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    My 2 cents about the last 2 wins, the improved play of Will Bynum. Our leading scorers are Jennings and Smith and they are terrible shooters. There's a reason why we stop running in the 2nd half.....teams start taking care of the ball. We don't force a lot of turnovers but rather take advantage of a teams mistakes. In the 2nd half teams pack the paint and concede jump shots to us, we take them and miss them. Bynum for all his faults has the ability to knock down an open 17'er as opposed to Jennings and Smith.

    Jennings truly is a a terrible shooter.....sub 40% for an entire career? Seriously? Is trade him for just about every other PG in the league sans Brandon Knight.

    Singler can play! He's not a stud, but if this team plays the right way he's a really good 5th option.......the problem is- we don't have a first option and until we get one (or a better coach) wins will be hard to come by.
     
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  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The answer is that it looks bad because you cherry picked and didn't include the totals for everybody else. Using the trailing "7" games with the least convenient 2 removed isn't exactly a standard metric when evaluating players.

    I'll use a nice round 10 games and not exclude any of them:
    Drummond: -95
    KC Pope: -52
    Bynum: -46
    Monroe: -40
    Smith: -36
    Jennings: -35
    Singler: -18
    Stuckey: -16 (but only played 6 out of 10 games)

    I can't believe I just wasted 10 minutes looking all of that up. Again, the more research that you made me do to defend Kyle Singler, the fonder I grow of him. He just went up a notch. Especially when I see that he shared the court with Billups, Datome, a healthy serving of Villanueva... AND he had to play power forward against the other team's starters last game.

    In terms of the games that you selected as not being relevant, I wouldn't call NY such a cakewalk since all of our starters were negative against them and they just beat the Heat.
     
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  5. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    I will go on record right here and now and say I believe we should move Drummond out of the starting lineup and start Singler. Drummond is gassed after 7 minutes and always plays poorly in the 2nd half as most of his production comes in the 1st qtr.
     
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  6. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    I'm sorry man, I've swung around on Bynum as I have watched games. But I simply can't agree with the Singler stuff. Everyone knows he isn't fantastic. But he certainly isn't what you paint him out to be either. He is likely the best small forward on the team by no small margin and he has very sound basketball fundamentals.

    Cheeks is an idiot but our players are likely to have big time negative +/- because we get blown out all the time.

    I agree. Even if he is the first sub off again - Drummond should be first on and playing no more than 25-30mpg.
     
  7. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Most of what I'm about to type has been said above, and probably better, but the cat is really tired of hearing me vent, so it's your turn.

    Jennings in on his way to the best assist game every by a Piston and best in the league this year, and Mo takes the ball out of his hands and gives it to Bynum who only passes if he's falling out of bounds behind the basket.

    The starting frontline is scoring and boarding like crazy so Mo takes them out and puts Singler at the 4 and some random short guy at the three. Rebounding and scoring cease.

    There was one little stretch in the 4th when Monroe came back in with Smith and the Pistons went on a little run. Too much for Mo I guess because he quickly pulled Monroe.

    You know, Mo often looks a little stoned to me. Maybe he had those colored lights going.
     
  8. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    If I may, Lee...

    I think you're displaying something here called Confirmation Bias, which is the deeply-rooted human tendency to put more weight behind information that confirms our beliefs. When you watch the tape, you are noticing all of Singler's flaws, of course, because he has them. He's not Lebron James (though he's a better rebounder in traffic, apparently). Unless Singler has an overwhelmingly good game where you can't reasonably criticize him, there will always be ways to shine a negative light on the guy. There are always ways to shine a negative light on any guy, if we want. Drummond doesn't play defense hard. Monroe misses a lot of bunnies. Smith makes a lot of crazy decisions. Jennings takes ill-advised shots. Bynum's height makes it difficult for him to compete defensively. Kevin Durant lacks strength to defend in the post. Lebron James isn't great in the clutch. Dwight Howard has had injuries the past couple years, and isn't the defensive stalwart he once was.

    We think that we start out by observing the world and then forming our beliefs by those observations, but we give ourselves a lot more credit for our ability to rationally analyze situations than we actually deserve. In reality, we notice something, then talk ourselves into believing it more. When we argue for it, it causes us to believe it even harder. This type of thing actually kills coaches, as they put guys in doghouses for isolated incidents, those guys repeat some errors, and those coaches never give the players the benefit of the doubt. Frustration builds, and players and coaches find themselves out of a job because of it. Careers (and marriages, families, friendships, etc.) are destroyed this way, and it happens all the time, because neither side is willing to acknowledge their own confirmation biases.

    That's where I think you are with Singler. He has obvious flaws. He's not a game changer. He's not a SF that's going to give you 20 points and 8 boards a game while shooting 3/6 from downtown. He's not going to hold other teams' scorers to zero points.

    But he also has strengths that have to be acknowledged. He's often the only guy on the court playing good position defense. When he subs in for Drummond, he's usually subbing in at the same time that Stuckey is coming in for KCP. If you put Jennings, Stuckey, and Monroe on the court together, breakdowns are going to happen a lot. That's because they're all bad defenders. And when those breakdowns happen, and all of the sudden Singler has the responsibility of covering for three separate players because his teammates can't play defense, then it's easy to pick on him because he's the only one that's taking any responsibility for guarding the whole team. And if you're going into that analysis already confident that Singler's the problem, it's very easy to find reasons that he is and overlook reasons that he may not be.

    That's why we have statistical analysis. If you look at the stats with an unbiased eye, the truth is that Singler - a bench player that's not playing in his ideal position - is not even close to the problem on the team. But doing this isn't easy, because we can use stats to prove or disprove what we already believe just as easily as we can use our own observations. You did this when you said "the last 7 games except for the 2 against bad teams," which is a inexcusably-biased small sample that you likely picked because it confirmed what you already believed.

    Let me ask you this - when you go through the data, what is your hypothesis? If your hypothesis is "Singler is at fault," then good for you, you'll find data to support it without much difficulty. I find myself doing things like that. I did that yesterday when I looked through KCP's game log on basketball-reference.com. I went in assuming that KCP was playing better recently, and looked for data to justify that. I saw that he had several double-digit game scores, and that immediately confirmed what I was thinking.

    The problem with that, though, is twofold. First off, my hypothesis was way too vague. I didn't set a numerical standard for it, and that meant that all I had to do was find a single piece of data and my opinion was justified. It should have been "KCP has been shooting well (above .375 from three-point land) over the past 10 games." That is either true or not. But that's not what I did, because I know that, subconsciously, I don't want to be proven wrong.

    The second problem with this is that I stopped once I found what I was looking for. I skipped past the plus/minus score (too many variables involved in +/- scores, the stat is nearly useless over a period of only a few games), ignored whatever his three-point % was (it was low and was only a small sample size anyway), and honed in on the game scores, because there were a handful in the double digits (aha! A trend, and a positive one that shows that those games have been pretty good!) If I had kept going, I probably would have looked at his opponents' numbers, his FT shooting, etc. I don't know what I would have found, but it would have undoubtedly painted a more accurate picture.

    And that's the type of thinking that I have no doubt that you're falling prey to. Again, I'm not calling you inferior or anything - we all do it. But your analysis is completely tainted at this point by your disgust with Kyle. It feels to me like every time you do a thorough analysis, you are looking so hard to demonstrate to everyone that you're right (how come all these idiots can't see how useless this clown is?), that you're missing the bigger picture; you're placing responsibility for the struggles of this team in the hands of a bench role player that is given the unfortunate task of covering for everyone else's mistakes. If he's on the court with Bynum, Billups, Smith, and Drummond, he's screwed! Nobody else on that squad closes out. Nobody else on that squad plays where they're supposed to, nobody else on that squad is going to pass to him the perimeter, and he's not going to get a lot of rebounds with Smith and Drummond in there with him. The end result is exactly what the data says is happening - he's going to be doing exactly what he's told, but it's not enough because NOBODY could be doing his job correctly.

    Now, if were an isolated case of disgust with Singler, we'd all be trying to see what you see. But you have a history of this, where you champion or denigrate a certain player to a ridiculous level. You want to be right, gosh darnit, and are completely unwilling to step back outside of your stubborn causes to see that your beliefs are not as simple as you make them. These analyses are complicated, and humans are bad logical thinkers in the first place. When you are unwilling to look at your opinions as grey areas (which, if I may speak for what I see from others, is obvious to most posters here) that can change from one week to the next, then you're going to continually paint yourself into a corner as you have with so many Pistons' bench players of yesteryear.

    Take a deep breath, Lee. Nobody here is saying Singler is an all-star. Nobody is calling him an amazing player. He makes mistakes. He isn't perfect. But he isn't dragging the team down like you claim, and if you look at the data with an unjudging eye, you'll see that he actually is a pretty decent player, one that gets a bad rap because he doesn't fill out the traditional categories we typically associate with excellence (points and rebounds).
     
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  9. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    Laimbrane-- your post is so good it should be a separate thread.

    Confirmation Bias....we all do it at some point and you explained it perfectly.
     
  10. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    And then he started turning the ball over (0 in the first half and 3 in the 2nd half), over dribbling and firing up bricks (he shot 4/14)......his usual in the 2nd half. Let's be honest Jennings' 2nd half performances RARELY resemble his first half performances.

    Well Will was 6/11 from the floor....I kind of trust the guys who can actually put the ball in the hoop.....you know...that thing Smith and Jennings seem to struggle at.

    Yeah, see in the 2nd half teams start packing the paint and taking that away from us and concede to us as many open jumpers that we want. Phoenix went small and we couldn't defend them, nor could we use our size on the other end to make them pay for going small.....so we forced to go small.

    Again Phx went small, 3 guards a short SF and Frye......and we failed to defend the spread floor and we failed to punish them for going small on the offensive end.

    Now THATS funny![/quote]
     
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Jennings with 0 points, rebs, and assists in that 4th. Unreal.
     
  12. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Even when Jennings returned in the 4th he rarely touched the rock. Bynum took the ball out, dribbled the ball up the court and rarely passed the ball.
    Didn't someone state that Bynum was 6/11 in the fourth. I think all of his points were unassisted. You would have thought that at least 2 of those buckets would have been fed by Jennings...

    Bynum, had one assist in that quarter himself and that was the under duress feed to Smith for the late 3 pointer.
     
  13. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    I think Jennings has proven well beyond a reasonable doubt that he is incapable of closing out games. In the 4th qtr the game turns into a half court game and Jennings struggles to run the offense (because he over-dribbles), dish the rock (because he's over dribbling) and score (because he can't shoot or finish at the basket) in the half court. I was ecstatic to see the coach take the ball out of his hands. Sadly I'm much more comfortable with Will as the closer than Jennings.
     
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  14. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I agree Jennings still has an issue knowing who to dump it off to when running a fast break or if he should shoot it himself. Those last minute sweeping runners kill me...especially when they are off. His court vision and smarts aren't there yet and you have to wonder if Billups is being utilized properly to discuss it or is he just ignoring him?
     
  15. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm not going to go as far as to say I agree with Lee (besides, I think there would be a snowball fight in hell if that happened). BUT...Singler is a particular brand of frustrating for me as a fan. He's the kind of player that for every good play he makes (and he DOES makes them), he turns around and makes two ridiculously stupid plays. What bugs me the most is that Singler's mistakes are the same kind of mistakes over and over again. The difference is this, if Monroe shows too hard on the P&R and doesn't get back to defend in time, he may do that on a certain play, but it's not over and over and over again. You can look at certain possessions and see the mistake, but it's not a highlight reel of Greg showing too hard on the P&R on play after play. The kind of thing that is frustrating about Singler is that he will repeatedly foul someone too late to stop a shot and give up 3pt plays (or potential 3 pt plays) constantly. Couple that with Singler, Stuckey, and Bynum repeatedly sagging off of weak side open shooters to provide help defense on big men they could never hope to stop even IF they got the ball (hence Singler's repeated 3pt play fouling) and you have a recipe for constantly giving up open shots if the opponent knows how to pass the ball. It's not that Singler is the one reason DET is struggling, but he's one of the single most frustrating to watch because he makes the same stupid errors over and over and he's one of the guys who seems to be impervious to having his minutes reduced when other guys seem to get yanked the minute they screw up. Drummond provides WAY more game to game than Singler ever will, but Cheeks will yank Andre in an instant if he makes mistakes.

    Secondly, with regards to this game, I love how Cheeks is being credited with going small and pulling out the win, but that stupid small lineup is the reason DET struggled to pull that game out. ALL of the times we were dominating PHX, we were playing with our standard lineup, but give PHX a 2-4 min stretch of good play and Cheeks almost self-sabotages himself out of a win.
     
  16. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think Jenning's problem right now is that he's only 4 yrs in and he's figuring out how to run the half court game. He's fantastic in transition, so we either have to keep playing at a higher tempo later in games or give Jennings time to get it right. The guy dished 18 dimes, I'm not going to spend time bashing him. People forget they would have killed to get 18 dimes out of Knight ANY of the games he was here.
     
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  17. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    If they had lost this game....which it surely appeared they were on there way to blowing it, the small ball option that lasted tttttttoooooo long in the 4th would have been grounds for termination at my arena job.

    This is a win that they actually stole because of a lucky shot by Smith on the 3 ball and then an I-am-not-going-to-screw-this-up-again shot by Smith with less than 2 seconds to go.
     
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  18. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Did you all actually watch the game? Look I thought Cheeks' lineups were absolutely ludicrous, but I understood why he did had to do it. Phx in effort to try and pull out a win on the road went with a gimmick lineup (3 guards, a small SF and Frye), our big lineup couldn't stop them or score on the other end so he went small to try and defend them. This is a flawed team and when they went spread option on us we simply couldn't handle them.
     
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  19. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yes. I watch games. It's kind of what I do.

    You don't adjust down to what the other team is doing, ESPECIALLY when YOU'RE WINNING. Yes, PHX had a very brief stretch where they played well, but, this is the NBA. That happens. A LOT. But, the minute Cheeks panicked and matched DOWN to PHX, PHX gained the upper hand and almost won that game.
     
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  20. kpaav

    kpaav Team Captain Forum Donor

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    I don't mind having Jennings sit out the closeing of a game for a better shooting Will Bynum. KGREG is correct that teams do pack the paint in the 2nd half (Good teams from the start). But, no reason ever for that minituare line-up. Keep Bynum in, but then get some TALLER shooters in. Gigi, JJ, even Jorts can stroke it from deep. There are other options.

    Also, I am 100% in the KGREG put Drummond to the bench club. He just doesn't have the stamina to play his brand of basketball for 36+ minutes. He is a 22-28 mpg. There are strecthes where he is just non existent, then a stretch where hes every where getting rebounds, blocks, etc. It would help with the line-up imbalance as well, until the inevitablek trade comes. Cheeks is already seeing that the Big 3 isnt working as it has only really been on the court 10-12 minutes these last few games.
     

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