Home Phoenix Suns Saturday, January 11, 2014

Discussion in 'January 2014' started by roscoe36, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Players don't just foul the man they're guarding nor do they only score against their assigned defender. When you rotate and fail to pick up your end of the bargain, technically, someone else's man scored. Does that site also track missed rotations and late help defense when it's YOUR responsibility to pick up a different player. Also, there is NO WAY Singler has only give up 4 and ones through 30-something games. I call BS on that. I might have some time on Sunday, but I could probably find more than 3 and ones from Singler in the last 10 games.
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is my logging experiment with this game as I took Lee's suggestion (obviously really starved for another game).
    For each PHO score, I tried to analyze the play and assign blame. I either give 1 blame to a player or 2 half blames to 2 different players if it was arguable. Of course some were even more nebulous, but that's why I'm including a narrative for each. Some took about 5 replays to try to track the root of the problem.

    Made baskets:

    Poss#. Pts: Blame- narrative
    1. 3: Smith- BJ was getting posted up by Dragic. JS left his man on the perimeter to come help needlessly. Kick out and wide open attempt.
    2. 2: Pope- Green drove past him and dunked. Screen was coming and Pope started getting ready for it, but Green took off as he was leaning over.
    3. 2: Monroe/ Jennings- Complicated sequence. Got blocked on offense. DET recovered on D, but mismatched pairings. BJ failed to switch on P&R and left man open on arc. Monroe was caught in no man's land and couldn't commit to either. Plumlee cut and got easy layup.
    4. 2: Pope- Green cut, got ball in paint, and hit contested J over Pope. Good D.
    5. 2: Smith/ Monroe- Complicated sequence. Det missed and D couldn't get fully set. Drumm was on PG on perimeter. Monroe helped down low unnecessarily and Pope was left to cover 2 men on the perimeter. Ball was kicked to wide open Green. He drew the D and then drove to the rim. Smith could have taken charge or challenged shot, but he ducked out of the way and conceded the layup without resistance.
    6. 2: Drummond- Plumlee boxed Dre out under hoop without the ball. PG fed him and he got semi easy finish. Dre still challenged shot, but it went in.
    7. 2: Pope- Green hit stepback J. Quick move and it was reasonably guarded.
    8. 2: Smith- P&R at perimeter. Stuck hit hard by pick that he had no chance of fighting through. Smith was in position to stop Stuck's man from getting past FT line, but he did weak reach in move and it resulted in clear path to rim. Dre left man to stop drive at hoop, but ball was dropped to Dre's man for easy bucket. Stuck and Singler both left their men to help, but couldn't get there.
    9. 2: Jennings- He gambled for steal on inbounds from side out and his man had clear path to rim. Dre stopped shot, but dropped off to Dre's man for easy bucket.
    10. 2: Singler- bad tov by KS on offense (he drove baseline, got caught, and threw pass that started 2 on 1 break).
    11. 3: Drummond- After miss on offense, Dre gambled for steal. Got left in the dust. CV picked up C in paint. Dre jogged back. Frye hit wide open 3.
    12. 2: Singler- Marcus Morris hit FT length face up J one on one. Contested.
    13. 2: Singler- Marcus Morris hit similar shot from other side of floor. Also contested.
    14. 2: Jennings/ Monroe- P&R got them. BJ slow to get around pick. GM caught in no-man's land.
    15. 2: Jennings- Dragic moved well without the ball. Got hand-off and created a little space. Hit long J. Jennings sagged too much.
    16. 2: Jennings- Dragic went coast to coast after normal missed shot. Jennings was in position to stop him, but got juked by behind the back dribble.
    17. 3: Drummond/ Smith- Pick and pop on the perimeter. Smith couldn't get through pick and Drummond sagged too much, especially b/c shot clock was low. Hit 3.
    18. 3: Bynum- P&R, but WB fought through pick and stayed with Dragic. Step back 3. WB shouldn't have sagged so much. [HALFTIME]
    19. 3: Jennings- P&R, Monroe took BJ's man when BJ got hard picked. When BJ recovered, he inexplicably followed Drummond and left Fry wiiiiide open.
    20. 2: Monroe- Plumlee hit FT line J. GM sagged for no reason as we already had the paint packed.
    21. 3: Jennings/ Monroe- In transition D, Jennings gambled for a steal and Monroe had to switch to Dragic. Shake and bake isolation 3 pt make.
    22. 3: Monroe- Pope was guarding his man in the post and Monroe left Frye on the perimeter to go help. Shouldn't have.
    23. 3: Singler/ Monroe- Singler drove to hoop and was blocked (he fell out of bounds). Monroe got OReb and went back up with it- Blocked. 3 on 2 fast break with neither KS or GM able to help.
    24. 3: Monroe- GM just got disoriented in traffic and Frye sprinted out to the arc for an open shot.
    25. 2: Jennings- Bad turnover (point blank steal way outside arc). Then BJ gambled trying to steal it back and was left in the dust. Fast break layup.
    26. 2: Singler/ Stuckey- Weird play. Small ball lineup in. KS on Frye getting posted up. Stuckey on Tucker. Stuckey leaves his man to go help Singler and helps cause missed shot... but Tucker in perfect position to get Oreb and putback. BJ picked up Tucker, but was badly mismatched on the rebound. Giving .5 blame to Singler, becuase it looks like he needed the help. (really a small ball tragedy here).
    27. 2: Singler/ Drummond- Weird play. Singler had Frye all the way down the floor on D. Drummond in paint alone without a man and Tucker alone at 3-point line. Singler realized the play was screwed and he ran out to get Tucker, who easily then drove past him. Drummond was in position to take charge or challenge shot, but he backed away. (broken possession)
    28. 2: Drummond- Burned by PG on P&R. Was in position to stop drive and got juked.
    29. 2: Jennings- Bad turnover. He was only one to stop the break and didn't/ couldn't.
    30. 3: Jennings- Got burned by his man. Once penetration occurred, defense collapsed to stop the PG, who had 2 choices of open men to pass to on the arc. Open 3.
    31. 2: Singler/ Jennings- Singler committed turnover on offense, which led to 3 on 3 fast break. Jennings had 10' lead on ball handler who went coast to coast with no passes.
    32. 3: Monroe/ Stuckey- Complicated sequence. Long possession with multiple screens set. GM let man drive past him. Stuckey left man in corner to come help, but Smith already had that covered. Pass to Stuckey's man for open 3.
    33. 3: Monroe- Frye in P&R. GM took PG even though WB fought through screen nicely. Frye was wide open.
    34. 2: Smith- Had to guard Barbosa in transition after normal DET miss when PHO pushed tempo. Typical shake and bake iso J.
    35. 2: Jennings- On P&R, BJ chose to take Frye w/out the ball when he didn't really have to (is was easier and he went with it). Frye posted him up. Small ball lineup, so mismatch was what PHO was seeking.
    36. 2+1: Singler- Got posted up. Challenged hook shot and fouled man on made bucket.
    37. 3: Smith- Sagged unnecessarily and left Tucker open in corner. Open 3.

    Shooting fouls:

    1. Villanueva/ Drummond: Stuck committed good foul. P&R on perimeter and Stuck got picked hard. Man drove to hoop. CV in no man's land and was worthless. Drum could have also stopped drive, but did weak reach in instead. Stuckey trailed his man and hacked him intentionally from behind.
    2. Jennings/ Singler: KCP committed foul from behind after OReb. Sequence that led to it: Jennings let his man drive by him. Drum helped and caused airball miss. Singler's man snuck past him to get reb and shooting foul. Singler could have boxed him out, but he was watching the ball. If shot hit rim, we probably would have got reb.
    3. Villanueva: In transition, CV was back and Jennings was trailing his man. He needed help and was pointing at his man to notify our bigs to help. Man drove right at CV who wasn't guarding anybody and got hacked.
    4. Jennings: Green posted up BJ. Quick spin move left him in the dust. Singler fouled Green on his dunk attempt. Good foul.
    5. Jennings: Fouled Dragic in transition. Drummond was heads up and blocked shot after foul (probably was going in).
    6. No blame: In normal transition opp, PHO took quick 3, missed. It was chaos/ cluster. They got lucky reb and Stuck hacked them.
    7. Smith: Frye was switched and was posting up Pope. Smith came to help, but fell for pump fake and fouled Frye.
    8. Bynum: Fast break. WB fouled Dragic from behind as he was going for the block. However, Singler was in position and was already challenging the layup nicely.
    9. Smith: This was the puke inducing 3-point foul at the end of the game. Smith got switched and was guarding Green in the paint. He fell asleep and Green sprinted to the arc, got the pass and took open shot. Smith fouled him as he got there desperately late.


    Summary of overall blame:

    DEFENSE:
    Jennings: 23.5 points + 4.0 points through turnovers
    Pope: 6.0 points
    Smith: 18.5 points
    Monroe: 18.5 points
    Drummond: 11.0 points

    Stuckey: 2.5 points
    Singler: 10.5 points + 4.0 points through turnovers
    Bynum: 5 points
    Villanueva: 4 points



    Total = 107.5 (actual score was 108, and I assigned no blame to one foul. I might be off by a point or so overall).
    J-Train, basketbills, linwood and 4 others like this.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    You may be right. I'm just using the only source I can find that tracks it. I would say that in a typical game, Synergy screws up 3-5 events (out of a few hundred).

    As far as assigning blame, it's really hard to do. They do an OK job by going with the players primary assignment and then adapting to obvious switches, etc. But when it gets messy, I think that they don't assign blame to anybody (judging by the fact that each player has more offensive possessions than defensive ones, which is impossible). They post a video clip of every single play so that you can review them. For instance, you can click on Singler's allowed P&R baskets and watch them in succession. You can also watching things in succession like every single steal. The bookmarking that they do has to be really valuable to team's scouting depts.

    I would imagine that every NBA team does what I just tried to do above, but times 10 after each game. They should have a very good idea of where things are going wrong and right. The exercise above really made me realize how another year or two of playing together would help our team defensively. As somebody recently said, our helper is not getting helped. That cohesion just isn't there and we have young guys that are new to the NBA and each other. Very young starting 5.
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  4. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    TaS...I appreciate all the free time you have...thanks for the stats...
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  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm trying to provide content for the West Coast die hards.
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  6. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    1> Can't always assign blame. Smith was off his guy, but the whole Piston defense had collapsed inside, giving up multiple outside shot attempt options. This one is a coaching thing, not an individual player blame. And note, the strategy did not need changing at that moment. This was the only bucket Phoenix scored in the opening several minutes of the game as the Pistons jumped out to a double digit lead.

    2. Pope got burnt pure and simple. He failed at this duty to slow the perimeter guy down enough to give the bigs inside time to help.

    3. Guard misplayed pick and roll, should have switched. A mismatch is better than not even guarding the guy. Two guys more use to playing with each other could have timed things better, with our big following theirs a bit quicker as the guard taking over outside. This leaves the other team with at least having to make a jumper vs. a layup. In any case, in this situation, with the communication not there yet on exactly how to pull this off, the guard should have addressed the big at the basket.

    4. The shot was not that contested. Pope never really caught up all the way to get back in any kind of position to address the shot.

    Its late. I will post more of this later. PS, I got both the defensive plays and offensive plays, but I will just go with matching this post. Anyway, as far as Singler goes, the first 8 times I have him in my notes for the first half, 7 are positive. Only his travel was a negative. (and even that was an attempt to score inside, which I always like.) Lots of good stuff from him as he goes to plus 14 at one point in the game. Later though, he ends up negative, and the mentions of him go mostly bad.
  7. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Never has a Piston player not named Darko been so over analyzed in 5 day stent .:gaah::gettinghanged: :help2: Less than 18 hours before the next game so we can discuss someone else's faults:greenapple:
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  8. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    I always figured that TaS stood for Terri, Arlene, and Sandy...the three assistant to TaS who do all the data research that he posts. :)
  9. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think the problem with the starting 5 is that 3 of them don't give a crap what happens on D and 3.5-4 of them equate going for a steal as playing D.

    You would not have used the word gambling as much as you did in your game tracking post if you were reviewing a casino opening for a newspaper.
  10. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Agreed. A good team can get away with a bad defender or possibly two if they have some really good ones to help clean up mistakes. The Pistons currently have too many that fall between weak and mediocre on defense. Good NBA teams give up less than 100 ppg. The Pistons give up 102.6. It's a very simple and crude metric, but I think it speaks volumes for the team's current ills.
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'd like to see the breakouts of how we compare after made offensive baskets and how we compare to the league after misses. The second would improve if we just cleaned up our offensive efficiency a bit. I don't know how we rank in each, but I think the data is avail.

    Also, I'm not sure if the gambling on d is working. We do get a lot of steals and those usually lead to easy buckets for us. The counter point is that failed gambles look bad and give up points on the defensive end. Have to get an overall blend.

    My gut right now is that our true half court defense is better than our true half court offense.
  12. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    It isn't. I think they'd be much better served staying in front of their man and playing the percentages of forcing guys to make shots. That is work though and I don't think a lot of these guys like that.
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Bynum seems to be generating an unusually good ppp by forcing tovs 20% of the time. I think for him, it may be paying off. They are draining threes on him at a high rate, but overall it looks good.

    Meanwhile, pope and jorts are getting it done by just staying in front of their man and not gambling.

    I like the concept of gambling guards to get fast breaks and a no fly zone in the paint... but our bigs aren't playing with one mind yet (maybe if you add them all up they have one mind).

    Would love to see the experiment where our most inefficient offensive and defensive player is removed from the sf position to see how many problems would naturally resolve.

    48 min of bball with not one min of js, gm, and ad together is completely possible. Just save that combo for ind, mia, and maybe one other physical team.
  14. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It just bugs me when a Piston player is too darn lazy to put a hand in the opposing players face to try to distract a shot..... even more troubling is when it is a big like Monroe or Smith's who's long arms could even block the shot. Seems like they would rather turn and face the bucket to grab a board than stop the shot.

    These young Pistons players developed the culture under Frank and Kuester and it is up to Mo and his philosophy/coaching team to change it and 103 ppg they are giving up after 38 games means that they haven't perfected it yet........ Remember just 10 years ago when teams were trying the score at least 75 points on us....that wasn't all Ben...that was team effort driven by the coach.
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  15. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

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    What makes you think the blame will fall on anyone else?
  16. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm not really "blaming". Just trying to find the most responsible one or two parties.

    Every team scores close to 100 points per game, so there is some level of unspoppable-ness to nba offenses. The rules are in their favor.
  18. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Just hobby for me. Breaking down defensive and offensive plays. Anyway, let me know if you have the time to look at any plays where I have disagreed with you. If not, not much point in me continuing to post my feedback. But note, I really like this kind of thing, and will keep responding to what you write if you indicate that it is useful to you. Let me know.

    As far as "blame." In the Phoenix game, which we won, I count at a minimum 28 points that can be accredited to the fact Singler is in the game. And this is being generous, because you could come up with 40 points where he was indirectly or directly responsible for the opponent scoring.

    Now, whose fault is it that Singler was in there causing the other team to get easier scores so much of this game. Not Singler. He did not force his coach to play him. Singler is a very limited player, too slow, no ups, too weak, too short, who has no business guarding pretty much any NBA player you could name. If he was a knock down type 3 point shooter, who could actually get his shot off when defended, you could overlook his defensive problems. But he has had one multiple 3 point game as far as my memory goes back this season. His offense is not making up for his lack of D.

    To be more specific, I got Singler down for 19 points given up where he failed to guard someone, so that person scored. In addition, 2 points for fouling needlessly when we were in the penalty. 2 points off his turn. 2 points for being in as the small forward, and not being able to function as an inside defender. Believe me, I would give the same blame to Pope, who is too short to play small forward, or Stuckey, in the same situation.

    In addition, I got him for several instances of simply being too small to contest rebounds. Lots of those cases indeed, and if you figure that a real small forward might have actually gotten just a few, giving us some more possessions, and them less, well, lets just charge him 8 more points for that. But that is still not 40. Until you factor in his lack of defensive capability in general that messes up our defensive schemes when our subs are in. But hey, lets just use the lower, 28 point figure, and call it good.

    Now, Singler does good stuff too. For this game, I got him down for 25 positive mentions. Compared to 28 negative. (Drummond, for comparison, has 40 positive mentions to 5 bad. Smith, its 24/8. Monroe 21/15)

    But note, I expect any small forward we use to do a lot of good stuff in a game. Just note, Singler has as many negative mentions as Drummond, Smith, and Monroe combined.

    So maybe you think this is all biased? Pope, one of my favorite players, I got for the worst ration of positive to negative, 8 / 13. Bynum, a player I do not like at all, I got for 15 /10. No, there is no bias. Just a simple result of watching the plays, yes, a whole lot multiple times in frame by frame until I have a very clear picture of the play, and writing down the results.

    Talk to you later.
  19. J-Train

    J-Train Team Captain Forum Donor

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    Lee, I simply do not understand your analysis of Singler. He is our best perimeter defender, by far. He's not strong on the ball, but he's not weak. He's one of two of our players who actually closes out on opposing shooters, KCP being the other one. He always makes the right pass. He moves without the ball. He blocks out a man so that his teammate can get a rebound. He runs the floor. He makes smart plays. He makes hustle plays.

    By the way, the sun sets in the west, and the sky is blue.
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Lee, I'm on daddy duty. I can only really glance at a cell until late night.

    Is Singler really small for a SF? Isn't he 6'8" and a college PF?

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