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Plus/Minus and its relevance

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Nov 30, 2006.

  1. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Right...
     
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I believe this stat started in hockey. Since there are so many little things you can do in hockey to help your team win and so few goals, a lot of good play didn't show up in the stats. So they started keeping track of how good the team did with and without a player over the long run.

    Sometimes it will show you who the MJ is on the team and sometimes it will show who the Stockton is. Usually the more balanced a team is, then the more an enabler will rise to the top. These guys allow everyone around them to play better. However, on a team with a KG, then there isn't much that guy can do when KG isn't on the floor with him.

    It is a very multidimensional piece of information.
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Darko is rapidly dropping on the +/- ladder due to his clumsy play of late. Turkoglu, Howard, and Arroyo have all surpassed him. The laws of physics still apply.

    Still, Battie is dead last on the team in every conceivable category. In last night's game, Battie was like -21 or something ridiculous.
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    There have been quite a few other changes to each team's +/- leaders as well. 15 of the 30 teams find themselves with a new leader.

    Atl- Joe Johnson
    Bos- Szcerbiak
    Cha- Brevin Knight
    Cle- Verajao
    Den- J.R. Smith
    LaL- Kwame
    Mem- CHUCKY ATKINS!!!
    Mil- Mo Williams
    NJ- Krstic
    NO- Chris Paul
    NY- David Lee
    Orl- Turkoglu
    Phi- CWebb
    Sea- Wilcox
    Uta- Derek Fisher
     
  5. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Told you they fluctuate nightly.
    You only get one number. You don't get a + number and a - number.
    If when you are on the court and your team/group out score the opponent you have a plus/positive rating. If your group loses when you are out there you get a negative rating. Doesn't matter those doing the scoring.
    I think that's how it works in hockey.
     
  6. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Yes. But in hockey, only for even strength goals (5 on 5, 4 on 4, 3 on 3). If one team has a power play (one or two man penalty advantage) the goals do not affect +/-.

    Basketball doesn't have that situation.
     
  7. max

    max All-Star

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    I like the stat but its not the most important stat as dba pointed out.

    Orlando has a great bench as compared to other teams.

    Figures out of of all the players on that list we have to focus on Darko.
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Again, that isn't the case. They combine the + and the - for this stat. And the leaders don't fluctuate nightly. But the leaders may change over time... just as the leading scoring average on a team might change over time.
     
  9. mercury

    mercury Bench Warmer

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    I tend to put more weight on the "on court" vs off court... there are too many uncotrollable variables with "off court"... some teams simply have superior bench players.
    When evaluating individual players I'll look at on court +/- and efficiency ratings which includes more individual performance benchmarks (((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

    At least with these stats you can get some defensive contributions.
    I'm glad that we're finally becomming more intellegent fans... I hate when folks throw out scoring numbers as the major criteria.
     
  10. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Its true that Darko is dropping in his plus minus, but it is not because of his play. You got to look at the five man unit data. Looking at that, you will see that any unit with Darko in it, as long as Battie is also not in that unit (as Battie seriously drags any unit he is in down) that unit has a solid win percentage. Of late, Darko has been getting paired up a lot with Battie, Garrity, and Bo Outlaw. (While Bo is still a decent player, he ain't Howard.) Orlando fans are going almost bonkers wathching Garrity out there doing practically nothing to help the team. Supposedly, Garrity is suppose to be able to shoot 3's, but his shot has gone completely missing. Basically, the mix of who Darko plays along side of has changed of late, with his time with Howard for instance sliding down to near nothing as Howard has been experiencing some foul trouble.
     
  11. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Nazz's EFF% comes in at 10 but his 48 avg. would be 25
    Darko isn't far behind at 9.5 and 20.
    70Nazr Mohammed , DET
    G-- M-- PT- EFF--------------- EFF48- EFF
    20 19.4 6.8 10.2 5.3 .2 0.7 1.15 25.14 10.15
     
  12. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I've been trying to say Battie is the weak link there but apparently he plays decent role. I don't get it.
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Lee, Howard is paired up with Battie a lot also. Everyone on the team is due to their cross over rotations. But you're right, Darko may have benefited early from not playing with him earlier in the season.

    It is obvious who the studs are in the NBA and you don't need +/- to figure it out. This stat is most useful to find the guys that are contributing in other ways like- setting screens, tipping rebounds, boxing out, avoiding turnovers, giving smart fouls, getting double teamed, playing help D, etc. Also, this stat should only be used comparitively to others on the same team.
     
  14. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    You would think that the great Darko would shine in situations where there is no Dwight Howard on the court to limit his touches and rebounds. So does this mean that if you put Darko in a postiton where he is with an inferior cast of players he won't excel. Seems to me that this is the type of scenario that exposes who the dominant players are. Stick them on the court and see what leader emerges from the bunch. Maybe its just me but I'm partial to the players in the league that do things like score, grab rebounds, get assists, shoot 3's, shoot a high field goal/free throw pct. etc... Just imagine how amazing Darko would be if his block numbers were down too! Then we could celebrate how good his numbers would be if players weren't so intimidated by his shot blocking prowess. With luck, Darko can be the first player to make the allstar team that averages 8 pts, 4 rebounds, and 1 blocked shot a game. A new era in basketball compensation will emerge, one where stats have no bearing on player salaries. Darko, the trend setter!
     
  15. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    Yeah, but what about guys who do The Little Things? Maybe that's the next escape route for the DHOF. :pound:
     
  16. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    The Chris Wilcox +/- is very surprising. I've made an effort to watch his performances as I have invested in him with several of my fantasy basketball teams. Until just recently, he's been playing disgustingly below the level that earned him a nice sized contract last year.

    Anyway, it would be interesting to see what the best +/- combo in the league is.
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    All you guys do is rip on Darko when I make any point. I'm not saying he's great, I'm just trying to have you look a little deeper into the #s. The standard stats out there only give you a fraction of what is going on in a basketball game.

    Baseball was revolutionized when people realized that the standard measurements were distorting the picture. The smart teams started picking up the hidden gems on the cheap.

    You can't look at a statistic in isolation. You don't want a guy who scores 50 points a game if he has a 25% FG%. You may not pay as much for a 15 rebounds per game guy if he's stealing your own players rebounds. It goes on and on. You can cut an slice the date in a million ways.

    I think that it is significant that when Dale Davis is in the game, the Pistons give up 14 fewer points per 100 possessions and only score 2 less on offense. To me, that suggests that Nazr might be expendable and probably should not start for this team.

    Also, despite all Delfino's beautiful form, etc., he is about the least effective player besides Hunter. In other words, his intangibles don't seem to be making up for his lack of tangibles.

    It is only because of the exadurated ripping that I feel the need to defend guys like Darko, Kwame Brown, etc., who actually show positive stats in team-related areas. This doesn't mean I think they're going to the Hall of Fame or whatever. If everyone said that Maurice Evans is a joke, I'll probably have to defend him too.
     
  18. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    This bothers me a lot because you try to make a lot of intelligent points and they get drowned out in the endless arguments. It sucks.
     
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Mo, this might be what you are looking for:

    NBA.com: Lenovo +/- Stat=

    Notice that you can filter for individual teams as well.
     
  20. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    I feel what your saying Tashawn. My only problem is that what you are saying does not support what I see on the court. More often than not my responses reflect a frustration that I am trying to relate. I have a problem with giving accolades to a player who has underachived compared to many other players in the league. Being a fantasy basketball enthusiast for the past 6-7 years, and being a loyal subscriber of NBA League Pass I have had the luxury of viewing alot of talent in the NBA. I've seen so many young players have amazing games that capture my imagination leaving me to wonder what they will mature into. This is why the emphasis on using this statistical analysis to back up an underachieving player in my eyes, bothers me. Biedrins has been ripping the league up this year. His stats and contributions to the game have been off the charts, yet Darko gets the love when we talk about potential. It erks me. He's done nothing to deserve this praise, so I discredit any attempt to justify his inability to perform statistically. I am a results person and I hate the constant excuses. I just wish Darko's game spoke as valiantly as his supporters.

    I've given you constant praise for your analysis and ideas. Out of all of the DHOF members, you and lazy appear to be the most openminded. I do appreciate your efforts and I apologize if I've done anything to discourage your research and opinions.

    I gotta be honest with you though.

    The only person capeable of swaying me away from my Darko opinions...is

    Darko.

    Show me the money.
     

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