Plus/Minus and its relevance

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Nov 30, 2006.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Looking at this list a little more carefully, I notice that there are 5 other bench players besides DM. Childress, Rondo, May, Magette, and Lee. I'm wondering if there is something about those teams that is similar to Orlando.

    Pryzbilla is a mystery to me. It must be the shot blocking that makes him effective. Portland is 2nd to Orlando in not allowing points in the paint. He's scored over 5 points only 2 times this year (6 and 8), yet he has started all 34 games he's played in??? His rebounding is weak. He takes 2 shots per game and makes 1 of them on average.

    I was also surpised to see that Detroit is 8th in paint defense, 2 spots ahead of the Bulls. It helps that we don't turn the ball over, which leads to fast breaks.
  2. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Pryzbilla only plays 17 minutes.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    But he starts every game. I don't understand what the point of starting him is, especially if they only play him 17 mpg.

    If a coach starts a player, it means that player deserves it though. Or so I have read. (spinal tap)
  4. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    Interesting list.

    Rondo has yet to make a dent in Boston even with the injuries to Delonte West and the ineffectivenes of Sebastian Telfair.

    Childress has been coming on strong as of late but has spent a majority of the season on the injured list.

    May has been up in down with injury.

    Maggette has been seeking a trade most of the season and has been reportedly feeling under appreciated by the coach. Although he seems to be getting more production as of late.

    David Lee is a rebounding machine starting or coming off the bench.

    Pryzbilla opened the season injured and has not come close to realizing the potential he showed last season since returning.
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just to come full circle, here are the worst +/- players on each team.

    Atl- S. Williams
    Bos- R. Gomes
    Cha- R. Felton
    Chi- Sefolosha
    Cle- Gooden
    Dal- A. Johnson
    Den- Najera
    Det- Delfino
    GSW- Pietrus
    Hou- L. Head
    Ind- Daniels
    Lal- Radmonovic
    Lac- Q. Ross
    Mem- Warrick
    Mia- Payton
    Mil- C. Bell
    Min- Jaric
    NJN- Wright
    NYK- Marbury
    Nok- R. Butler
    Orl- G. Hill (by a wide margin)
    Phi- W. Green
    Pho- M. Banks
    Por- J Jack
    Sac- K Thomas
    Sas- M Finley
    Sea- Wilkins
    Tor- F. Jones (Mo Pete is a close 2nd)
    Uta- Brewer
    Was- J Hayes

    Some surprises, but nothing too strange. Jaric... Joe D must have looked at this list! Some older players who still have a small shred of offensive game (Hill, Payton, Finley). Some role players who aren't playing their roles well (K Thomas, Sefolosha, Daniels). Then you got some no-namers.

    For a good example of a highly skilled player who kills your team, look at Steve Francis. The Magic got better by subtracting him from the mix.
  6. pass99

    pass99 All-Star Forum Donor

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    Many times GM don't like to be embarrassed on some bad and overpaid contracts. JD should get on his hands and knees thanking Joe Patterson for bailing him out on the Pryzbilla move.

    Some GM's play out their mistakes and others move them.
  7. ahb

    ahb Bench Warmer

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    Instead Nazr Mohammed, whose +/- lately has been a nice, even zero, will be collecting a paycheque in street clothes well into the next decade. I suppose that's another way to deal with embarrassment.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm going to examine the reasons why Darko's +/- is better than Dwight Howard's right now. Please don't overreact and pretend that I think Darko is better than Dwight. Just for the record, I would much rather have DHo on the Pistons over Darko if they were offered for the same price (mainly because I think the Pistons would make up for Howard's weaknesses and utilize his strengths better than with Darko).

    As I've shown before, the Magic score more than their opponents when DM is on the floor. When DM is on the bench, the Magic's eFG goes from over 50% to 48.9% and the opponent's eFG goes from 45.9% up to 48.2%. When he is in the game, the Magic's assisted field goals increases by 2% while the oppenents decreases by 7%. This can all be summarized as 'the other team has trouble scoring when Milicic is on the floor.' No other player on the Magic has this same defensive effect.

    But here is a very important supplement to that. When Darko is playing, the Magic get 3 more free throws than the other team for every 100 possessions. That right there makes up a huge portion of the point spread that he creates. The turnover margin is the same with him in the game or out of the game, so that is a non-factor.

    On to Howard.

    We all know that he sucks in a ton of rebounds. And his dunks are rim-shaking displays of intimidation. He also blocks shots like a sonnofagun.

    But, the Magic score 3.3 less points on offense and give up almost 6.8 more points on defense when he is in the game. How in the World is this possible? The eFG differential is one reason. The Magic shoot just as high of a percentage from the floor with him in there, but the other team's shooting really improves.

    But that is only half of problem. Here are some of the hidden reasons that are too subtle to realize without looking deep into the numbers. Free-throws-made and turnovers. Even though the Magic shoot more free throws when Howard is in the game, they make 1 less (all of this is per100 possessions) and the other team makes 1 more than when he is benched. When dealing with evenly matched teams, that 2 points really makes a huge difference in point spread.

    But the huge issue is turnovers. Not only does Dwight turn the ball over a lot, but so do his teammates when they are trying to force feed him the ball. These turnovers don't show up on Howard's box score. When Howard is in the game, the Magic turn the ball over an extra 2 times, and they cause 3 less turnovers by the opponent. This is a 5 turnover differential per 100 possessions! Since each possession can be counted on to produce about 1 point (eFG of .50 X 2.0), then this TO difference is hurting the Magic by about 5 points when he's on the floor.

    If you prorate Darko's turnovers to the same amount of time that Dwight plays, then you get 2.84/game for Darko and 3.63/game for Howard. However, I am arguing that not only is Dwight turning it over more, but so is the rest of the team by trying to get the ball to him.

    Overall conclusion:
    Darko plays better help defense, which holds the other team to a lower eFG. On offense, the Magic are more efficient with Darko in the game. This is because he doesn't turn it over as much and creates more ball movement with his passing. This is evidenced by the increase in eFG% for the team and positive free throw differential. Darko is a better fit for the current Magic team.

    Now, why would I rather have Dwight? Because the Pistons would figure out a way to get him the ball without all of those costly turnovers. Also, the Pistons don't need quite as much help D from their center as the Magic do. Dwight is a one-dimensional help defender in that he protects the paint, and that would be good enough to get the job done for us.

    The Magic's main problem right now is getting the ball to DHo. If they can develop a way to do it efficiently, then they will show significant improvement. The reason that a lot of Magic fans are frustrated is that Brian Hill hasn't been able to find a way to do this. I would say that with the guards on the team (Nelson, Arroyo, Diener, Reddick, etc.), this is not an easy solution.
  9. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    Nice analysis Tashawn! Impressive, bro. :)
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    "Some people have questioned Chauncey Billups' inclusion to the All-Star team, as he is not averaging career highs in any category and has missed eight games due to injury. However, Billups leads not only the Pistons, but the entire Eastern Conference in the individual category with a +235 showing his value to the team."

    NBA.com: Lenovo Breakdown: Feb. 6


    This is why the +/- stat is great for team players like Billups.
  11. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I doubt the fans know that. All they know is he is :
    MR. BIG SHOT !!!
    THE CAT HAS A NAME. RECOGNITION BABY !!!
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The Bulls/Jazz game on Mon night was a very strange one from a +/- perspective.

    Ben Wallace played 41.2 of the 48 minutes. So, he sat on the bench for a little less than 8 minutes.

    Anyway, Ben was +11 on the night, and the Bulls lost by 5. That means that in the 8 minutes that Ben was on the bench, the team was -16!

    When Ben was out, the Jazz went on a 14-4 in the 2nd quarter and an 8-2 run in the 4th quarter.


    Chicago was scoring at a 36 points per game pace while Ben was out and the Jazz were scoring at a 132 ppg pace. The Bulls completely fell apart.

    Ben was the only player on his team to have a +/- greater than 1 point and his stats were not overly impressive. 7 points, 11 rebs, 2 blcks, 2 assists. He is king of the little things when he plays well.
  13. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Ben is a superior pick and roll defender. The Jazz are one of the premier P&R teams.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is how the Jazz scored with Ben out:
    2nd Q
    Giricek- 2 free thows
    Giricek- 3-pointer
    Giricek- layup after Harpring offensive rebound
    Fisher- 23-foot jumper
    Millsap- Jumper
    Fisher- jumper
    Fisher- fouled, made both

    4th Q
    Fisher- 23-foot jumper
    Fisher- 3-pointer
    Millsap- putback and 1 after offensive rebound
    Fisher- fouled, made both
    Harpring- 21-foot jumper

    It was the Giricek, Fisher show I guess.
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I thought of a new way to use the +/- stat to see who is playing well recently.

    Here is a ranking of the Pistons (+/- per minute in last 10 games only). So, this doesn't penalize a guy for not getting minutes. I only included players with 100 or more minutes.

    1) McDyess: + .276/min
    2) Flip Murray: + .200
    3) Delfino: + .191
    4) Prince: + .134
    T4) Sheed: + .134
    6) Hamilton: + .131
    7) CWebber: + .115
    8) Maxiell: + .112
    9) Billups: + .057
    10) Hunter: - .056
    11) Mohammed: - .301 (actually, he doesn't qualify minutes-wise)

    So, Dyess is playing out of his mind and Nazr has been horrific (but may be statistically unreliable given small sample size). Flip Murray and Delfino have been excelling, while Chauncey went through a little slump... maybe the groin was hurting him for a while now. Webber has also cooled off a bit.

    All in all, anyone in the "+" is doing a good job. A lot of teams out there have every single player in the negative. It's just that Dyess, Flip Murray, and Delfino are carrying more weight that they were earlier in the season, which is a great sign.
  16. pass99

    pass99 All-Star Forum Donor

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    There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

    Mark Twain
  17. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Poor Chauncey, his #s are going steadily down. It's that dang Webb, he's running the point from the paint. Stealing CB's assists.
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    NBA.com: Lenovo +/- Stat

    +/- stats from the past 10 games.

    #1 Dyess with a +119 (+16.7 per 40 minutes)!!!
    #15 Chris Webber with a -48 (-7.4 per 40)


    Chalk it up to the flu for CWebb... but dang Dyess. What got into him?


    Also, Dyess's recent play has also vaulted him to the top of the team for the year in +/- per minute after a terrible first half to the season... that is how well he is playing.
  19. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    DIET PILLS
  20. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    So it's Dyess, WeBB, Nazz, Dale or Amir. one is gone next year. About time Dyess is bringing it.

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