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Plus/Minus and its relevance

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Nov 30, 2006.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That is very strange in deed.


    Another weird statistical blip is the point differential vs. team record for New Jersey/Philly and Portland/Utah.

    ESPN - NBA Standings, Pro Basketball Standings, NBA Team Records

    Portland has a better record than Utah, although their point differential is 5 points per game worse. Same with Jersey over Philly.
     
  2. round

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    wow and we thought we had issues with our starters mins..... wade is headed for another injury.. i know it was an ot game but both guards played over 51 mins, haslem 48 mins and wright 41...

    there playing desperate in dec, by the end of january they will be totally burned out, and/or injured....
     
  3. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    The Heat already have injuries, either short-term or season-ending, to their top 2 players at point guard AND their top 2 at center.
     
  4. Dumars4Ever

    Dumars4Ever Bench Warmer

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    I think that probably evens out over the course of a season. I just looked at the last couple of final season standings, and it seems like point differential tends to track with record fairly closely.

    30 games is a decent-sized sample for a lot of stats, but maybe not for point differential. The Bulls right now are still a bad team at 10-17, with a -4.8 PPG differential, but I think they were something shockingly bad like -10 only a month or so ago. Even Minnesota right now (-8.4) isn't that bad.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Portland's largest margin of victory for the entire season is only 11 points.

    Their losses have been by as much as 21 points.

    They are on quite a roll now though. On the season, they have beat Dallas, us, NO twice, Toronto, Denver twice, GS, Utah.
     
  6. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    Aldridge and Roy are the real thing. Outlaw has been around but still has a pretty decent game.

    Portland though needs Oden to be considered a serious contender in the Western Conference. They are a weak rebounding team currently ranked 23rd. They are also a below average free throw shooting team and not a good offensive team, 20th in the league.

    They are also very young with their top two players being very young. If Oden comes back and can play without spending a lot of time on the injured reserve list then they will have the nucleus of a very good team.

    They have a decent chance at making the playoffs this year if Aldredge or Roy don't go down with an injury, but even if do make the playoffs this year, they should be eliminated in the first round.

    :hoops:
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I was just thinking about something that I heard one of the road announcers say the other day during a Pistons game.

    He pointed out how misleading it is to look at the Pistons' gross rebounding margin/deficit. His reasoning is that since we usually win the turnover margin, and sometimes by a wide margin, that the other team tends to get many fewer field goal attempts. Since defensive rebounds are the main component, we get fewer total rebounds than we would if let them run their offense without interference.

    Because of this, we should be looking at % of available rebounds. However, that can also be misleading, because the tougher shots our opponents are forced to take, the more random the rebounds get. We've all seen those pseudo air-ball rim grazers than Jeff Foster pulls down.

    Moral of the story, this is another complicated stat that can't be viewed in isolation.
     
  8. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Offensive rebound stats might be an important one to look at.
     
  9. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    You can see this when you look at the Bulls who are among the league leaders in offensive rebounding - mostly because they miss so many more shots than anybody else. I'm guessing though that even though % of available could be biased by the kinds of shots a team forces another to take, it's still a much better measure than the rebounding difference.
     
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    we are better the all of 4 teams when you look at total rebounds a game.... however if you look at Differential we are 12th overall.

    another interesting stat.... NBA - Statistics by Team - Yahoo! Sports

    if you look were the only team that is postive in good stats and negative in bad stats.... meaning were doing everything right form rebounds to assists to turnovers to fouls....
     
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Great observation. That is a well rounded team.

    Check out the FG made differential. We are 1st in the league with 4.5 more made FG's than our opponents per game. That is a lot. Orlando is 22nd in this category with -1.1. They partially make up for it by attempting 5.5 more FT's per game.
     
  12. CHS Ace 12

    CHS Ace 12 First Round Draft Pick

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    i really don't understamd the stat very much really i dont think it makes a difference either
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Think of it as each player's personal score.

    It's not Chauncey's fault if the Pistons don't score more than their opponents when he's sitting on the bench.

    On the other hand, it may not be Maxiell's fault either, even though he's out there.

    It basically becomes a regression analysis over a long period of time. Some stats like this are validated because they produce results that people agree with.

    For example, if the stat shows that Lebron and Kobe are the best players in the league, then there may be something to it.
     
  14. CHS Ace 12

    CHS Ace 12 First Round Draft Pick

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    thanks for the explanaton tashawn
     
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is a stat that I wish I would have thought of:

    RealGM: Beyond The Arc - The Cost Of Wins

    The Pistons are 2nd in the league. It's funny to think that even though we are low cost, high results, we are still paying about $1M per win.
     
  16. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I did this in the first Paying for Production article at the end of the 2006 season. I don't think I replicated it for the 2007 version. For the 2006 season the top five were Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago, San Antonio, and Cleveland.

    From the bottom up were New York, Portland, Indiana, Toronto, and Minnesota. Other than the Knicks a lot has changed for the other cellar dwellers.
     
  17. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    I think with a number like this you have to look at the current numbers vs the long term trend as well as the standard deviation, all relative to the real value of the dollar adjusted for the international currency basket valuation of dollars.

    :hoops:
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is not a +/- number. It is net production while on the floor (players production - opponent's production). As AHB pointed out, this is subject to subjectivity, because of all the switching that goes on out there + zone defense + human error in observation, etc. But, I will assume that on average, if the other team's center scores while Sheed is in the game, then Sheed is the most to blame... over the long run. Also, it is easier to have a positive number off the bench, since you aren't guarding Lebron. The most useful part of this calculation is that it lets us know which positions we are relatively stongest in.

    Anyways, with all the asterisks in place, here is how our players rank:

    Billups +14.6
    Hamilton +6.5
    Tayshaun +3.2
    Maxiell +2.7
    Afflalo +2.4
    Murray +0.6
    Amir +0.4
    Sheed -0.1
    Hunter -0.8
    Herrmann -1.3
    Dyess -1.8
    Samb -8.3
    Stuckey -9.2
    Bresec -13.7

    My analysis?

    Dyess at -1.8 is not bad. We have such a strong advantage at the PG spot, that giving a little here is pretty good. Maxiell would probably be at that number or worse if he had to start... b/c of some of the size mismatches he'd encounter.

    CB- awesome

    Bresec- yuck man. I've seen enough. Don't lower his trade value any more by playing him for another second.

    Murray > Hunter > Stuckey??? For right now, yes, the numbers don't lie. Hopefully that changes before the end of the season.
     
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCE OF EACH PLAYER

    Points allowed while ON COURT per 100 possessions:

    1. Afflalo! 101.3
    2. Hunter 102.1
    3. Dyess 102.3
    4. Billups 102.5
    5. Sheed 103.1
    6. Prince 103.2
    7. Amir 103.5
    8. Bresec 103.7
    9. Rip 105.1
    10. Hayes 105.3
    11. Murray 107.1
    12. Stuck 107.1
    13. JMax 107.6
    14. Fabio 110.6
    If Afflalo can seperate himself from the bench pack by this much, especially considering that he is sharing a lot of minutes with Stuckey, then his defense must truly be outstanding.

    Hunter's numbers are also backing up his reputation as a stopper.

    Billups is very strong since he is also our top offensive player.

    Bresec actually not giving up as many points as I would have guessed.

    Rip is surprisingly low on the list compared to how tenacious his D looks. Maybe his uptempo style is just allowing more possessions. I'll have to look into that.

    Stuckey is pretty low, probably because of his turnovers leading to easy buckets for the opposition.

    The biggest surprise is Maxiell though. Pretty much dead last. Herrmann's minutes have been GT and limited, so I'm not going to conclude that he is that bad yet.
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I previously mentioned how Billups, Rip, and Sheed performed during "crunch time" in the playoffs last year.

    I just thought I would look at Sheed's performance during the regular season so far this year to see if maybe the playoffs were an abberation.

    Again, crunch time is defined as the last 5 minutes of regulation and all overtime situations where the teams are within 5 points of eachother.

    Here is what Sheed has done in those situations this year:

    He's taken 34 shots. 31 of them have been jump shots. The other 3 were in the paint, with 1 of them being a dunk. Out of the 34 shots, he has been fouled 1 time. Overall, he has shot 22%, or 25% when you factor in his 3-pointer to make an eFG.

    In 69 offensive rebound opportunities, he has secured 2 of them.

    4 assists and 3 turnovers.


    Chauncey has been a little worse than normal, with an eFG of 45%.

    But Rip has been awesome. He has taken 32 crunch time shots and is hitting close to 60% of them.

    So, in terms of clutchness, it goes Rip, Chauncey, everyone else, Sheed.
     

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