Discussion in 'Detroit Pistons General Discussion' started by Smoooth, Jan 20, 2009.
............SO ARE STEAKS..........
Let's do it. Democracy is an untested infant. Plus, if we don't like the King, we can all revolt.
Oh sure, that's easy for YOU to say. Nobody said that YOU have to be a bloody princess!
I agree with the thing about the bigs.
I not sure I agree with the thing about the youth. If you have the bigs, you don't necc. need youth. Well, maybe with the guards. The champions of the last 10 years had elite bigs and young guards.
We have an excellent young guard in Stuckey. We have one old elite big (Rasheed) one near elite aging big (McDyess) and some raw athleticism (Max, Amir.... Kwame?). Hamilton is an excellent piece, not quite elite, and not quite young. Iverson is an elite player, but not big or young. Hmmm. I don't know. Hopefully Joe and Curry do.
NOT the prettiest of visuals, Darth!
Before you read this post and get bent out of shape, keep in mind that the intent is not to hate on AI or MC. It is just to show you that our upcoming schedule might make today's decision to start AI seem worse than it really is.
We have a very difficult 20 game stretch in front of us. It may turn out that the guy who just won the starting job takes a lot of the blame for what is about to happen.
Below I lay out our schedule and make a prediction on the game based purely on current records (I didn't include any opinion). If a team has a significantly better record that us, I assume L. If they have a worse record, I assume W. If their W's are within 3 of Det's either direction, then it is 50/50.
Next 10: These teams are a combined 40 games above .500.
Expected outcome is 4.5 and 5.5. Not bad. If we drop a couple games to bad teams, this could get ugly. Need to win the gimmies.
But then it gets absolutely brutal: These teams are a combined 106 games above .500.
Expected outcome during this stretch is 1.5 and 7.5.
So, if this thing plays out according to Hoyle, then 6-14 is a likely result, which would put us at 29-31 on the season. That would mean that we could be clinging to the final playoff spot in the East.
Our schedule gets easier after that and much easier toward the end, but my main point is that AI and Curry are going to be under a lot of pressure if this base-case scenario plays out. If the team under performs, then it could be a disaster.
Ahhh, Princes do just fine. Unless there is a revolt. I'll be a serf in the new order, and the old order.
Say that is a gloomy prediction.
Pistons do better against the good teams than the bad. Actually have a pretty good record I think against +.500 teams.
The bad teams tend to have those young developing players that Sheed and Dyess have trouble keeping up with. Give me a winning vet team against the Pistons.
Plus our best defender Prince is not going to be wasted trying to guard a PF instead of what he is best at.
Everything that has happened this season has made any decision by Detroit that includes Allen seem worse than it really is. The trade, the switch from PG, the benching of Richard and it will culminate with whether or not the Pistons make the Finals.
Not the ECF, because if that's all they do, then people will still say that Detroit could've kept Chauncey and the peace and done that. If the Pistons don't make the Finals, this will be a failure.
It won't matter that Rodney has become Rodney or Tayshaun has become more aggressive or that Michael stinks, the headline will say Allen Iverson screwed up the Pistons.
I wouldn't mind having the crossover, but I'd hate to be in his basketball shoes right now.
But, you guys are pretty cool, so it was worthwhile for me.
Believe me SJ, not many here are even expecting an ECF appearance this season at this point. If AI gets us past 2 rounds, he will be get a lot of well deserved praise. It is entirely possible that we will have a first round match-up against one of the top 3 seeds and it'll be lights out. If we get the 4 or 5 seed, then we'll have a decent chance at winning one round.
If the team is rolling late in the season, then maybe these expectations will be revised, but we know what a condender looks like, and this ain't it.
Wow thats a tough 20 game stretch...part of me actually likes that because after this it can really gives us an idea of what this team will be about come playoff time...there's still a month before the trade deadline so it could tell joe if he really needs to bust a move and try to make a deal if we are still struggling come all-star break...
This post should really be in the Stat Lab but here it is in here, still relevant though.
Kinda long so hang on for the ride and bear with me.
In Det we have 3 really good guards, not really a problem because we've been here before. I pulled the MPG & PPG stats for Vinny, Joe and Zeke from 1986/87 (when they Lost in Conf Finals) through 1990/91 (when they relinquished the title and lost in Conf Finals), Check it out:
Name / MPG / PPG
86-87 - Lost in ECF to Bos
Zeke / 37.2 / 20.6
JoeD / 30.9 / 11.8
VJ / 27.8 / 15.7
87-88 - Lost in NBA Finals to LA
Zeke / 36.1 / 19.5
JoeD / 33.3 / 14.2
VJ / 23.6 / 12.2
88-89 - Won NBA 'ship
Zeke / 34.9 / 18.2
JoeD/ 36.6 / 17.2
VJ / 25.3 / 12.2
89-90 - Won NBA 'ship
Zeke / 37 / 18.4
JoeD / 34.4 / 17.8
VJ / 24 / 9.8
90-91 - Lost in ECF to Chi
Zeke / 34.5 / 16.2
JoeD / 38.1 / 20.4
VJ / 29.1 / 11.7
Looking at the MPG, is it unrealistic to think that AI can't put up Zeke type #'s, that Stuck can't put up JoeD type #'s and that Rip can't come off the bench and duplicate Vinny? However all this is based on NOT PLAYING WILL BYNUM!!!!!!! If you keep Tay's MPG around 30-36 that means you could realistically get AA about 12-18 mpg easily. All that talk about putting your best players on the floor is BULL if Will Bynum is keeping AA on the pine.
WHEW!!! I'm beat after this post.
I reckon so too. Tay is getting beaten up playing the 4. If he kept this role going his iron man streak would be coming to an end sooner rather than later. We needed this to happen to preserve Tay! I'm fine with AA getting his minutes at the 3. (if thats the only place he can get them)
I agree. It's not right to compare Manu's situation with Rip's. The only thing they have in common is they both come off the bench.
We are doing it out of necessity. The Spurs do it for... I don't even know why because Manu could easily slot into that starting lineup. The spot is there for him, they just choose not to start him because it works for them.
It's not the same situation at all. As someone mentioned, Manu can get his own - Rip not so much.
So what will this mean for Arron Afflalo? I didn't catch it the first 4 times...
Hmm, yes and no. Rip's minutes should be more productive coming off the bench. Instead of him wasting the first 8 minutes of a game trying to figure out where he fits in (and destoying his rhythm for the rest of the game), he'll come straight into the game against the opposition bench with a pass first PG in Bynum, which means he should be able to get into a natural rhythm quickly.
AI and Stuck will be able to do their thing without always thinking in the back of their mind that they need to try to get Rip involved and stop forcing plays that aren't there or don't come naturally to them.
It is important who finishes the game but if we are 20 points down because we didn't get going until the 3rd quarter, the lineup for the final 5 minutes won't mean anything because it will be scrub time.
Starting AI means that he has a longer future with the Pistons than Rip. Otherwise, why mess with the chemistry of this team. AI can make his own shot. Rip cannot, and that makes him better suited with the starters who run plays to giv e him the open look.
WWFD - What Would Flip Do...:dizzy2:
you know, i prefer to just BE the king and have everyone else still think they're exercising power by voting. As for the Princesses: think of them more as celebutants
Actually, there will be no revolt. I PROMISE I'm feeling your concerns as if they were my own. Now, in the meantime, why don't you watch a little more reality TV on that flat screen you bought on credit. And, if in a little while, you're still feeling out of sorts and grumpy, then we'll go pummel a small country or something to distract you.
I predict we will win all these games. We have pretty much so far lost games only from our rotation being messed up. Its fixed. Just wait and see.
I guess I didn't realize that VJ spent 5 straight seasons in the exact same bench role. In my memory it was only a 2-3. That was a lot of stability, only matched by our recent run of CB/Rip at the guard spots.
If we're trying to duplicate the bad boys model, we do have some similar pieces.
Stuck is oversized like JD. AI is a scorer like Isiah.
Amir + Max = a poor man's Rodman
Sheed plays D and shoots the 3 like Laimbeer.
And as you just pointed out, we now have the Vinnie role filled with Rip.
Tay is sort of the unique one. Not really many players like him out there at all.
I though Joe was only 6'3"?
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