Some info about Draft position and Starters

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by SKluck, Jan 12, 2006.

  1. SKluck

    SKluck First Round Draft Pick

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    Reading the paper and having all these stories in "The Dunk" about our rookies and their "massive" upsides, I've become increasingly annoyed. This culminated the other day when I read somewhere that Acker could potentially become a starter and how Amir is so great. 59 and 60 in the draft.

    So while watching Quite Frankly (Which is moving to 11pm! WTF!) I made a list of all NBA teams, their original starters ignoring injuries. I also added the numbers together to create an index and came up with the "richest" and "poorest" teams draft-wise. Hopefully this will also crush any thoughts anyone has about Acker or Johnson ever starting for the pistons :).

    Most surprising is the worst draft position of a starter is 29. This doesn't include undraftees. For tabulation I made undraftees count as 60.

    It doesn't really mean a whole lot, it's just kind of interesting (Minnesota has 3 #1 picks!). Teams are organized by Divison then draft index. Bare with me, it's a long list.

    UNDRAFTED
    MIKE JAMES
    BEN WALLACE
    UDONIS HASLEM
    BRUCE BOWEN
    MARQUIS DANIELS
    SMUSH PARKER
    BRAD MILLER

    #1s
    ALLEN IVERSON
    CHRIS WEBBER
    LEBRON JAMES
    ANDREW BOGUT
    SHAQUILLE O'NEAL
    DWIGHT HOWARD
    TIM DUNCAN
    YAO MING
    KENYON MARTIN
    MICHAEL OLOWOKANDI
    ELTON BRAND
    KWAME BROWN

    RICHEST 5
    DENVER 20
    CHICAGO 28
    MEMPHIS 33
    GOLDEN STATE 34
    ORLANDO 34

    POOREST 5
    SAN ANTONIO 175
    UTAH 152
    DALLAS 118
    INDIANA 115
    MILWAUKEE 113
    BOSTON 113

    CONTENDERS
    MIAMI 91
    DETROIT 97
    PHOENIX 103
    DALLAS 118
    SAN ANTONIO 175

    EASTERN
    ATLANTIC--------------------
    NEW YORK 42

    PG - MARBURY - 4
    SG - CRAWFORD - 8
    SF - RICHARDSON - 18
    PF - FRYE - 8
    C - CURRY - 4

    PHILADELPHIA 59
    PG - IVERSON - 1
    SG - KORVER - 22
    SF - IGUODALA - 9
    PF - WEBBER - 1
    C - DALEMBERT - 26

    NEW JERSEY 62
    PG - KIDD - 2
    SG - CARTER - 5
    SF - JEFFERSON - 13
    PF - KRSTIC - 24
    C - COLLINS - 18

    TORONTO 106
    PG - JAMES - 60
    SG - ROSE - 13
    SF - PETERSON - 21
    PF - BOSH - 4
    C - ARAUJO - 8

    BOSTON 113
    PG - WEST - 24
    SG - DAVIS - 21
    SF - PIERCE - 10
    PF - LAFRENTZ - 3
    C - BLOUNT - 55

    CENTRAL--------------------
    CHICAGO 28

    PG - HINRICH - 7
    SG - GORDON - 3
    SF - DENG - 7
    PF - SWEETNEY - 9
    C - CHANDLER - 2

    CLEVELAND 76
    PG - SNOW - 43
    SG - HUGHES - 8
    SF - JAMES - 1
    PF - GOODEN - 4
    C - ILGAUSKAS - 20

    DETROIT 97
    PG - BILLUPS - 3
    SG - HAMILTON - 7
    SF - PRINCE - 23
    PF - WALLACE - 4
    C - WALLACE - 60

    MILWAUKEE 113
    PG - FORD - 8
    SG - REDD - 43
    SF - SIMMONS - 42
    PF - BOGUT - 1
    C - MAGLOIRE - 19

    INDIANA 115
    PG - TINSLEY - 27
    SG - JACKSON - 43
    SF - ARTEST - 16
    PF - O'NEAL - 17
    C - CROSHERE - 12


    SOUTHEAST--------------------
    ORLANDO 34

    PG - FRANCIS - 2
    SG - STEVENSON - 23
    SF - HILL - 3
    PF - HOWARD - 1
    C - BATTIE - 5

    WASHINGTON 76
    PG - ARENAS - 31
    SG - BUTLER - 10
    SF - JEFFRIES - 11
    PF - JAMISON - 4
    C - HAYWOOD - 20

    CHARLOTTE 90
    PG - KNIGHT - 16
    SG - RUSH - 20
    SF - WALLACE - 25
    PF - OKAFOR - 2
    C - BREZEC - 27

    MIAMI 91
    PG - WILLIAMS - 7
    SG - WADE - 5
    SF - POSEY - 18
    PF - HASLEM - 60
    C - O'NEAL - 1

    ATLANTA 106
    PG - LUE - 23
    SG - JOHNSON - 10
    SF - CHILDRESS - 6
    PF - HARRINGTON - 25
    C - PACHULIA - 42


    WESTERN
    SOUTHWEST--------------------
    MEMPHIS 33

    PG - STOUDAMIRE - 7
    SG - JONES - 10
    SF - BATTIER - 6
    PF - GASOL - 3
    C - WRIGHT - 7

    NEW ORLEANS 57
    PG - PAUL - 4
    SG - SNYDER - 16
    SF - WEST - 18
    PF - MASON - 17
    C - BROWN - 2

    HOUSTON 92
    PG - SURA - 17
    SG - WESLEY - 60
    SF - MCGRADY - 9
    PF - HOWARD - 5
    C - MING - 1

    DALLAS 118
    PG - TERRY - 10
    SG - DANIELS - 60
    SF - HOWARD - 29
    PF - NOWITZKI - 9
    C - DAMPIER - 10

    SAN ANTONIO 175
    PG - PARKER - 28
    SG - GINOBILI - 57
    SF - BOWEN - 60
    PF - DUNCAN - 1
    C - MOHAMMED - 29

    NORTHWEST--------------------
    DENVER 20

    PG - MILLER - 8
    SG - JOHNSON - 6
    SF - ANTHONY - 3
    PF - MARTIN - 1
    C - CAMBY - 2

    MINNESOTA 72
    PG - JARIC - 30
    SG - HASSELL - 30
    SF - SZCZERBIAK - 6
    PF - GARNETT - 5
    C - OLOWOKANDI - 1

    SEATTLE 75
    PG - RIDNOUR - 14
    SG - ALLEN - 5
    SF - LEWIS - 32
    PF - RADMANOVIC - 12
    C - COLLISON - 12

    PORTLAND 86
    PG - BLAKE - 38
    SG - DIXON - 17
    SF - MILES - 3
    PF - RANDOLPH - 19
    C - PRZYBILA - 9

    UTAH 152
    PG - GIRICEK - 40
    SG - HARPRING - 15
    SF - KIRILENKO - 24
    PF - BOOZER - 35
    C - OKUR - 38

    PACIFIC--------------------
    GOLDEN STATE 34

    PG - DAVIS - 3
    SG - RICHARDSON - 5
    SF - DUNLEAVY - 3
    PF - MURPHY - 14
    C - DIOGU - 9

    LA LAKERS 85
    PG - PARKER - 60
    SG - BRYANT - 13
    SF - ODOM - 4
    PF - BROWN - 1
    C - MIHM - 7

    LA CLIPPERS 85
    PG - CASSELL - 24
    SG - MOBLEY - 41
    SF - MAGGETTE - 13
    PF - BRAND - 1
    C - KAMAN - 6

    SACRAMENTO 90
    PG - BIBBY - 2
    SG - WELLS - 11
    SF - STOAJAKOVIC - 14
    PF - ABDUR-RAHIM - 3
    C - MILLER - 60

    PHOENIX 103
    PG - NASH - 15
    SG - DIAW - 21
    SF - JONES - 49
    PF - MARION - 9
    C - AMARE - 9

    ALLSTAR EAST 25
    PG - IVERSON - 1
    SG - WADE - 5
    SF - JAMES - 1
    PF - O'NEAL - 17
    C - O'NEAL - 1

    ALLSTAR WEST 39
    PG - NASH - 15
    SG - BRYANT - 13
    SF - MCGRADY - 9
    PF - DUNCAN - 1
    C - MING - 1

    Players drafted over 30 - 11% of starters
    PG - JARIC MIN - 30
    SG - HASSELL MIN - 30
    PG - ARENAS WAS - 31
    SF - LEWIS SEA - 32
    PF - BOOZER UTH - 35
    C - OKUR UTH - 38
    PG - BLAKE POR - 38
    PG - GIRICEK MIN - 40
    SG - MOBLEY LAC - 41
    SF - SIMMONS MIL - 42
    C - PACHULIA ATL - 42
    PG - SNOW CLE - 43
    SG - JACKSON IND - 43
    SG - REDD MIL - 43
    SF - JONES PHO - 49
    C - BLOUNT BOS - 55
    SG - GINOBILI SAS - 57

    Undrafted 4%
    PF - HASLEM MIA - 60
    C - WALLACE DET - 60
    SG - WESLEY HOU - 60
    PG - PARKER LAL - 60
    SF - BOWEN SAS - 60
    C - MILLER SAC - 60
    SG - DANIELS DAL - 60

    84% of NBA Starters are taken in the 1st Round.
     
  2. mercury

    mercury Bench Warmer

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    Nice work SKluck.
    It seems that the better strategy from teams not in the lotto is to trade their pick... they would have better luck waiting on some of these rooks to get some experience and use the MLE on them.
    Of course there's always gonna be some sleepers that slip thought the scouts eyes and make a splash... but the odds of a #20 + pick becoming a starters are slim.
     
  3. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    Very nice analysis. I enjoyed this.

    San Antonio's ranking is very suprising.
     
  4. TWOTIMESRALPHI

    TWOTIMESRALPHI Team Captain 3x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    just shows how good their overseas scouting is. Ginobili and especially Parker have been two of the biggest steals in history.
    Our draft steals have been Okur and Prince- this far, I wouldn't consider Delfino a steal (hopefully that's gonna change).
     
  5. lemonpen

    lemonpen First Round Draft Pick

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    WOW !! Damn nice work.

    NBA scouting systems must virtually uncover every rock out there, cause there don't appear to be many surprize walkons so to speak.
     
  6. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    nice work
     
  7. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    What the heck are you trying say?
    A good GM doesn't need Lotto picks?
     
  8. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    Great stuff. It's funny how we spend a lot of time thinking about the second round picks when the chance of them making any kind of an impact is slim. Ben Wallace going from undrafted to AllStar is incredible when put in this context. Keep up the good work.
     
  9. NotoriousCPC

    NotoriousCPC First Round Draft Pick

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    I think people don't put what Carlos Delfino is capable of in the proper context. Ginobili is considered one of the great steals in history and him and CD do have very similar skill sets. But remember - In Ginobili's first two years in the league he got considerable burn (over 20 mpg) and still averaged only 7.6 and 12.8 ppg respectively.

    He didn't blow up until his third year into the game changer he is today. Also remember Delfino is five years younger than Manu. Give this kid time and I think he'll eventually be the sixth man and a great scorer who will be dangerous in multiple ways.
     
  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Well, it's hard to argue on potential vs. results.

    Ginobili was drafted 28th in the second round of 1999 @ 22 years old. The Spurs let him develop in Europe before bringing him over. By the time he arrived in the NBA, he was a two time Italian League MVP and Euroleague Finals MVP and champion.

    Delfino has a lot of upside, but comparisons to Manu are unfair.

    Ginobili was one of those very rare draft steals. If he went into the draft the year he signed with the Spurs (summer of 2002), he would have been a high lottery pick.

    Let's put it this way. If Delfino has 1/2 the career Ginobili will have, it will be a good pick by Joe D.
     
  11. G-man

    G-man Starter

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    Kluck, Nice effort on your behalf. Very much appreciated. I think the bottom line (literally) when all is said is down was this;

    "84% of NBA Starters are taken in the 1st Round"

    When talking about anyone taken outside the 1st round, you start knowing just 16% slipped through the cracks. The next question has to be how far? Where did the 16% come from? How deep into the 2nd round or after? I'm sure the bell curve drops like a knife blade awful damn quick.

    So all the unreal expectations fans harbour for their own pet role players can be summed up right there. It's called little to no chance at all. Especially for those drafted late landing on a deep team...
     
  12. detteam

    detteam All-Star

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    How possibly prophetic after yesterday's results...I wonder if Playstation's cyber ears were burning :laugh:
     
  13. max

    max All-Star

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    Nice work. Be nice if someone could post some of those stories. I have not seen squat on the rookies. Better than the fluff I have been reading.

    When they are talked about then yes I can agree its not as rosey as it sounds as we know, probably only one of the 3 will be on the team next season.

    Amir Johnson interests me. He fits the bill of a potential steal. He would have been playing for Pitino at Lousianna if not for academic issues. He was projected as a potential high draft pick if he would have played in college for a couple of years.
     
  14. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    I see. So what you are telling us is:

    If you are a starter in the NBA then the odds are 25-1 that you weren't drafted. Thanks
     
  15. mercury

    mercury Bench Warmer

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    I'll take a US born talent anyday over a "more skilled" Euro...
    I don't know how to say this without pissin some folks off... but Euro's ain't that good... there's only one that plays consistent defense (AK47).
    This is a two way game... you can have your Peja's and Dirks (also no D)...
    It comes down to being born with quick muscle reflexes... you can teach a player to shoot and dribble better but you can't teach quickness and courage of getting to the hole... I really question most of these Euro's toughness (at least Dirk will go to the rack)... the black Euros are certainly more athletic and gutsy (Pietrus, Parker etc) ... this theory does not include South American athletes.

    Point being a lot of wasted picks have been on skilled players with no balls.... the 2nd rounders that have been successful are atletic and tough.... several first round flops have been skilled and soft.
     

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