A lot can happen between now and the start of the season. If not much happens, .500 is absolutely not going to happen. ...and that's totally OK! For the first time in a long time, the team seems to have a direction and a future. We've got young players who could turn into GOOD players. I'm looking forward to watching the team ON the floor without worrying too much about the scoreboard hanging ABOVE the floor. I just want to see the team/players improve and develop as the year goes on.
For one, the Pistons will be the first team in 6 years to field 5 rookies on their roster (not including Stuckey).
I believe we will get close to .500 but will fall short. Unless Drummond is a revelation off the bat or just after the All Star Break, we've taken a step back over all. Why? You're taking a savy veteran and replacing him with two raw bigs. Ben Wallace may have stopped influencing games with his defensive presence but he was effective out there. We don't even know if Drummond and the other guy is even rotation worthy at this point. My unsubstantiated opinion is that we'll see similar things from Dre as we did from BK. Some flashes of goodness but an overall negative in the win/loss column. In fact, we have a lot of guys like that. Our best floor stretchers are CV, Daye, and Kim. Thats scary! not for the other team but for us. I love Kim but he's a walking catastrophe if he puts the ball on the floor. You know what you are getting in CV and rebounds and defense aren't it. That leaves Daye and the unfounded hope that he'll play markedly different this time around. The problem with the back court isn't that its short-handed, its that Wil Bynum is on it. Will was a bad-ass change of pace guard but what we need now is a facilitator. We need Russell D. with a jump shot. Maggette is cut from the same cloth as Stuckey and so how is Moose going to operate when the lane is clogged? So you got all these drive and kick mf-ers including Knight and no real PG. We still have Prince who kills ball movement faster than Bruce Willis in a hi-rise. That puts a lot of pressure on Monroe, Knight, and Stuckey. I think we'll see marked improvement but not .500.
I believe that coaching and hustle will put us around .500 this season. Tay is the lone vet starter and he's got the most guys nipping at his heels from the bench. The Rockets were above .500 last year with: 2011-12 Houston Rockets Roster and Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com (ranked in terms of minutes played) Lowry Kevin Martin Scola Lee Parsons Dragic Camby Petterson Buddinger Dalembert We're on par with that lineup.
You must be hanging out with Lee this summer if you think that 5 rookies will get enough playing time to matter. When have roster positions 11~15 ever mattered on the Pistons?
With the changes and the number of young guys in the team, I expect we will have another poor start and from around Christmas time on, go at .500 again.
In addition to the 5 rookies, we have 5 other pretty young guys: Knight - age 20 Monroe - age 22 Daye - age 24 Jerebko - age 25 Stuckey - age 26 Other guys: Villanueva (27), Maxiel (29), Bynum (29), Maggette (32), Prince (32)
I was never one of those "play the young guys over playing the BEST guys" type of people but things are different for me this year. Our only hope of reaching elite status in the near future is to develop some of these young players that we've accumulated. The vets on this team (Tay, Stuck, BoT, Max, Bynum, Maggette) will not be leading this team ANYWHERE. The young guys simply have to play. I'll take development and experience over wins all season long this coming year. You won't hear me complaining about losing games unless were losing them with the young faction of this team rotting on the bench. I think I read two days ago that the Pistons' lineup is ranked 26th best in the NBA (up 4 spots from last year). Even if you super glued all of the youngsters to the bench, the Pistons would still need to play above and beyond to finish above .500. The EC will be much improved this year. Pretty much every team besides Charlotte and Orlando will be a lot better.
I disagree. Lowry vs Knight - BIG advantage to the Rockets K-Mart vs Stuckey - slight advantage Rockets Parson vs Tay - push Scola vs Monroe - advantage Pistons Dalembert vs Wallace/JMax - advantage Rockets With Lee, Camby, Buddinger, Dragic - the Rockets have a MUCH better bench. (now, ...this is where you destroy my argument with statistics)
I think this is the reason why, "We're returning pretty much all of our starters". This is a solid point for not building on last years record. Remember how many times last year Special K would remark about the respect Ben still got from the refs versus Monroe et al as they would climb back in a game. I am interested to see how they (especially Stuckey) starts out the year. I do not want to see them "look like strangers" out there.
With a rookie PG, new coach, and a strike-shortened preseason, it was no surprise the Pistons got off to a slow start. The 21-21 finish was definitely a surprise to me. A .500 record and a #8 playoff seed is a possibility this season if everything clicked, but I agree that tanking development of these young guys is way more important.
As Rascoe stated..........the rookies will not be used enough. This will affect team chemistry. Watching Tay run his solo play will start to wear on other team members. Wondering wether Stuckey or Stuckey 2.0 plays...will also hamper a run towards the playoffs. Keeping CV on the roster will only add to the predicted flakes this winter. My biggest fear is that Monroe decides that Detroit isn't in his future. I see around 36 victories this season...............36-46 sounds about right.
Unfortunately, I can only work with the statistics that the Pistons produced, which were pretty mundane. Here was their most common starting lineup vs our projected 2012-13 starting lineup (all with 2012 PER): Lowry (18.9)/ Knight (11.7): 7.2 adv Rockets K-Mart (16.5)/ Stuckey (17.6): 1.1 adv Pistons Parsons (13.3)/ Prince (12.8): 0.5 adv Rockets Scola (15.4)/ Jerebko (14.2): 1.2 adv Rockets Dalembert (16.9)/ Monroe (22.0): 5.1 adv Pistons Net advantage Rockets = 1.7. Very minimal. If Knight improves his horrible PER by 2.0 then our 2013 starting lineup projects out to be slightly better with this measure (which is admittedly offensively biased). Bench: Rockets- Dragic (18.0) Lee (12.6) Camby (19.6) Buddinger (14.9) Hill (15.1) Pistons- Maxiell (11.7) Drummond (?) English (?) Maggette (14.1) Singler (?) BoT (- ) Bynum Middleman Daye Body... I think our bench is actually pretty good. The Rockets were barely over .500 and it really isn't out of the question to think that we could be. Our team last year sustained that kind of play for the latter part of the season, which is important because it was a first year coach for the team. i.e. it took a while for them to understand his scheme. I watched about 75% of the games last year and I still don't understand it.
For what it's worth, the Rockets beat the Pistons by 17 in the one and only meeting between the two teams last season.
We played .500 down the stretch last year. Are some of you guys really arguing that; A. Our personnel has changed or become worse than the group that did that or B. We shouldn't play the guys who got us to .500 because we should win less games developing youth? The latter is the longest running argument in PF.com history.
I'm arguing "B". The longest running argument in PF history hasn't been a valid argument until now (and maybe last year). Back in the day when we were going deep into the playoffs every year, it didn't make sense to "give" extended minutes to young guys. We had a deep roster and a great team culture where guys were expected to "earn" minutes. We could't afford to play heartless stiffs like Darko due to the fact that we were too busy trying to win CHAMPIONSHIPS. ...Fast forward to 2012 and the word "championship" isn't even a remote possibility. The quickest way back to a champioship level is to develop the butt-load of young ballers that we have. Doing this will assure: a. They learn and gain experience as fast as possible b. Their value increases ASAP so we can make trades/roster additions to get back on top If the GOAL is to get to .500 then hell yeah, play Tay Prince 40 minutes a night. ...Put the ball in Stuckey's hands and let him collide us to 40 wins and maybe an 8th seed. I'm more interested in doing the work that needs to be done NOW to ensure that were back in the hunt for a title in 3 or 4 years instead of 7 or 8 years. Our youngsters need to be coached and they need to play. They need to be treated like they're EXPECTED to be starters and producers.
