Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Feb 15, 2011.
I thought this thread was about me and my newly announced PF.com Fantasy Baseball team.
Nice use of undrafted's. I forgot about Azubuike! Ellis and Gasol are essentials in both of our scenarios. This team would be like the Trailblazers before injuries ruined their potential.
It's sort of interesting going through the exercise chronologically to get a feel for how unlikely it really is to draft someone good outside of the top 10. You really have to filter through a lot of "where are they now's" to cherry pick the standouts.
It's also interesting to realize that even with the Pistons' crappy draft positions over the past decade, it is technically possible to get incredible talent for a very cheap price if you are way above average in your selections.
It might really be worth it to have a thorough and high paid scouting department to get better at this part of the team building process.
So, who was the biggest steal that the Pistons have been eligible for during this timeframe?
Looks like Monta Ellis was by far the biggest steal that we were eligible for over this time period.
Marc Gasol and Fields were probably next with Blair and Jerebko in the top 5. I.e., these guys would go much higher if the drafts were redone.
I really think Dumars did a pretty decent job overall picking. Amir, Afflalo, Jerebko, and Monroe were all about as good as you could reasonably expect him to do at those spots. There were a few duds like Sharpe, Plaisted, etc, but it makes more sense to gamble with high picks than to take the sure thing (which would clearly be a deficient player).
I haven't had the time to take a run through this, but I'm really happy you guys did. Very interesting, thanks.
I agree with you for the most part here, and it goes to show that Dumars really hasn't done that bad of a job at drafting. He supposedly blew the second overall he got as a freebie, but even Darko is now looking like a decent player (if not worthy of the #2 overall). The rest of his picks have been significantly better than other teams have been able to pull: out of the 240 players drafted later than 20 the past 6 years, maybe 40 or 50 are still in the league. Dumars is responsible for 5 of them - Summers, Afflalo, Amir Johnson, Jerebko, and Maxiell (and Budinger, if you count him, which I didn't) - which is pretty impressive statistically. The truth is that it's really difficult to restock through the draft, and almost impossible to find a franchise player - Rondo (21, 2006), Ellis (40, 2005), and to a lesser extent Blair (37, 2009) and Gasol (48, 2007) are the only four guys you could label as more than pieces of a championship team, which is about 1 for every 60 picks.
There seems to me to be a whole lot of luck involved in finding these guys, which kind of means that you have to either rely on luck (bad idea), be willing to go through a period of high picks and rebuilding (will happen if you rely on luck, and is frustrating for the fan base - just ask Pistons fans), sign some expensive free agents that weren't good enough for their own team to resign even though they were able to offer more money, or trade for high picks (which again, relies on luck). It seems to me that the system is set up to result in an ebb-and-flow of power, which isn't bad, but means that you're going to just have to be a frustrated fan from time-to-time, as we are now.
For every good pick JD turns around and shoots the team in the foot. Why give up on Amir and Affallo ?
2005- Monta at #26, Amir #56
2006- Samb & Blalock (will eventually be released)
2007- Chandler at#15, Gasol at #27, Mejia at #57 (Will be released)
2008- DeAndre Jordan at #29, Erden at #59.
2009- Holiday at #15, Blair at #35, JJ at #39
2010- Monroe at #7, Fields at #36
Guards: Ellis, Fields, Holiday = $13,101,524.
SF: Chandler, JJ = $2,892,676
PF: Monroe, Amir, Blair = $8,716,040
C: Gasol, Jordan, Erden (will be traded for a future 2nd rdr) = $4,807,993
Total = $29,518,233 (Roughly $26Million in cap space)
Use the cap space to acquire Amare Stoudemire and Ray Felton in the summer of 2010, cost=$24Million.
With the success of Blair's rookie season I would not have extended Amir, now I have a lineup of:
PG: Felton* and Holiday*
SG: Ellis and Fields*
SF: Chandler and JJ
PF: Stoudemire and Blair*
C: Gasol, Jordan* and Monroe*
Cost of 2010/2011 lineup: $48,031,240, I'm currently about $12Million under the cap, which means I only have to ship out a little over $5Million dollars in salary to take on Carmelo in a trade.
So I offer Denver, Felton, Greg Monroe, Fields and a 1st rd pick for Melo.
Post Trade Lineup:
PG:Holiday (Ellis plays some PG too)
SG: Ellis (Chandler plays some SG too)
SF: Melo, Chandler, JJ
PF: Stat, Blair
C: Gasol, Jordan
Cost of Post Trade Lineup: $61,858,839 + cap filler scrubs.
Cost of current Piston roster:$65,917,821
*Means I'm shopping these players.
That's a team, KGREG.
Impressive, indeed. I didn't realize we could draft Stoudemire, Felton, and Anthony. I don't know how I missed those guys!
How many wins ya think ya got with those guys. I figure double whatever Joe gets this season.
If you're keeping your 05 and 07 guys, aren't they due bigger money ?
Yeah, that's another way that you can take this experiment. Consider the FA market each year. That opens up the complication- would James have signed here for any price?
At least with the draft, they are forced to show if they want to play in the league.
I'm guessing that there aren't many simulations here that would suggest buying Gordon and/or Villanueva in the FA market.
Gordon has now shown 4 straight years of significant production/minute declines. Points per 36: '08- 21.0/ '09- 20.4/ '10- 17.8/ '11- 16.5.
Villanueva showed a decline in the first year he was here and another so far this year in points and in rebounds.
Monta already got an extension, I let Amir walk. This summer I have to pay the lux tax to keep Gasol and Jordan, Chandler may indeed walk, but I have JJ ready to go and since he's probably out of this rotation I'll sign him very cheap this summer. We're about to have around a $85Million dollar payroll for the 2011-2012 season, but with this lineup I think we're competing for a ring and most teams that are going for it have payrolls in this area.
Nice work KGREG...
wow TaShawn this is too much for me to even think about trying to accomplish on my own.
I feel that you've backed the timeline up to the right juncture though, which is kindof eerie considering that Larry Brown reportedly got on Dumars' and Davidson's bad side for having the nerve to suggest that moves be made following that Championship run.
This is where I think Joe started to lose his luster in my eyes - not for the things he did do, but for the moves he didn't make because every night he went to sleep he was satisfied and just as content as the players that he had assembled.
I might try to highlight some of the moves we were "offered" that Joe was quoted as spurning in the press, such as Chandler being offered up with filler in a sign and trade for Wallace, Josh Smith being dangled for Prince ( who we might let walk for nothing), and the trade with Boston that would have netted us Rajon Rondo for Stuckey and our ever present problem Hamilton.
Even if those moves would have set us back a bit in the W/L column for a few years, we would have been placed into the realm of having better opportunities on Draft night, and who knows what that would have done.
It couldn't have put us in a worse spot than we are now. The teams that are worse than us have draft night to look forward to, whereas we can't even get excited about that unless the ping pong balls pull us out of the 8-10 spot we are looking at right now.
This topic is very stimulating indeed. Thanks for posting it.
Good to see you back Cloudy.
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