The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. Latinoking90

    Latinoking90 Bench Warmer

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    Wasn't the summer that Joe signed Nazr, he was going after Przybilla, but low-ball him?

    And it seems we need AI! Let the little man do his thang.
     
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Billa went through a bit of a slump I believe. Would have been an excellent pick up.
     
  3. HelloIDistance

    HelloIDistance First Round Draft Pick

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    Yep, I remember that. He's would have been a better pickup than Nazr. I was just thinking about this while I was watching Portland the other day. He's a tough center who can rebound and block shots.
     
  4. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Yeah but how deep into the playoffs could Pbilla take you before being exposed like Tay often is ?
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    FINAL +/- results:
    1. Rasheed Wallace: +82
    2. Amir Johnson: +70
    3. William Bynum: +37
    4. Walter Herrmann: +21
    5. Richard Hamilton: +9
    6. Kwame Brown: -6
    7. Aron Afflalo: -40
    8. Allen Iverson: -49
    9. Rodney Stuckey: -74
    10. Tayshaun Prince: -75
    11. Jason Maxiell: -123
    The 10 best 2-man units in terms of gross +/-:
    1. Prince + Johnson: +83
    2. Stuckey + Wallace: +81
    3. Bynum + Hamilton: +65
    4. Prince + Wallace: +59
    5. McDyess + Wallace: +58
    6. Bynum + Brown: +54
    7. Wallace + Johnson: +52
    8. Afflalo + Brown: +48
    9. Hamilton + Johnson: +52
    10. Herrmann + Maxiell: +39
    That means that without the benefit of playing beside Herrmann this year, Maxiell was -162. Yowser.

    DYNAMIC DUOS:

    For each player on the team, I'm going to list the player that they matched up the best with per 48 minutes:

    Bynum- Hamilton
    Iverson- Herrmann
    Stuckey- Sheed
    Afflalo- Kwame
    Hamilton- Bynum
    Prince- Amir
    Herrmann- Amir
    Amir- Kwame
    McDyess- Kwame
    Maxiell- Amir
    Sheed- Amir
    Kwame- Bynum

    TERRIBLE TWOS (for each player, the worst partner)

    Bynum- [strike]Iverson[/strike] Stuckey
    Looks like Bynum needs to play with a real SG, not a combo guard.

    Stuckey- Afflalo
    Afflalo- Stuckey
    Too much youth together? Tandum of the future needs work.

    Hamilton- Herrmann
    Usually when they played together, SB was going down.

    Prince- Herrmann (devastatingly horrific)
    Herrmann- Prince
    OK Curry, don't play both your SF's at the same time. Prince needs a backup more that you need to reinvent the game of basketball for the worse.

    Amir- McDyess (very bad)
    McDyess- Amir
    With these 2 out there, we are undersized. Need some beef.

    Maxiell- Stuckey
    No jump shooters when these 2 are paired. Max clogs the paint.

    Sheed- Herrmann
    Too slow of a pairing. Sheed can't help quick enough to help Herrmann.

    Kwame- Sheed
    Opposite problem as Amir and Dyess. With these 2, we have too much beef and no offensive rebounding.
     
  6. max

    max All-Star

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    Thats a very detailed report. Thanks for posting it.
     
  7. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    You left out Dyess, at -68

    Also, not to nitpick, but just to add something - The Amir - Prince pairing existed far, far less than the Stuckey - Wallace pairing. The Amir - Prince pairing was extremely successful, and we should have seen a whole lot more of it.
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    So I did. Good catch.

    And you are right, that is the weakness of showing gross +/-... some of those combos didn't get as much time as others. The weakness of showing +/- per minute is the old sample size problem, where a seldom used pairing has a lot of success for a couple games and looks great, but probably isn't sustainable.

    I really think the SB and playing Prince at the PF position really sunk him this year too. He is traditionally one of our better defenders and very strong in +/-, but this year it doesn't show in the stats. Can Tay play the same position as Tim Duncan? No way.
     
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    On the regular season...

    Our starters were 27th in the entire league on offense with 102.4 points per 100 possessions.

    Our bench was the #1 out of all NBA benches in that same category with 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Our bench was also #1 in the NBA in terms of rebounds per minute played.

    However, despite these stats and despite our aging core, our starters got the 8th most minutes in the league. Here are the teams that also rode their starters hard:

    #1- Charlotte (surprise surprise, LB)
    #2- Atlanta
    #3- LA Clippers
    #4- Toronto
    #5- New York
    #6- Orlando
    #7- New Orleans
    #8- Detroit
    ...

    At the very bottom of the list, you have:
    #27- Denver
    #28- Dallas
    #29- Portland
    #30- San Antonio
     
  10. pass99

    pass99 All-Star Forum Donor

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    Pbilla would be a wasted signing.
     
  11. Warthog

    Warthog Bench Warmer

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    tashawn that is very interesting information actually. i like that much better than the amir +/- stuff :)
     
  12. HelloIDistance

    HelloIDistance First Round Draft Pick

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    Man Max was -167? Thats horrible. He played horrible this year though. To bad we resigned him he looks like a super scrub.
     
  13. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The Starting Lineup Ferris Wheel Final Version:

    So, I finished my analysis of Curry's Little Rotation Shop of Horrors.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Curry started the season with Prince, Sheed, AJ, Rip and CB. After this, he changed the lineup 23 different times. To be fair, 11 of those times were due to things out of his control (injuries, THE trade). So in 82 games, Curry changed the lineup 12 times of his own volition. In a 24-week schedule, that's a voluntary lineup change every 2 weeks. Throw the forced changes back in, and you average a lineup change every week! So about every three or four games, the starting lineup changed. This, to me, is mind-boggling. I'm discombobulated just thinking about it, and I don't actually play on the team.

    Pretty arbitrarily, I picked 5 games as a minimum sample size (if someone has a more scientific way of selecting a reliable size, please tell me). This gives us 9 lineups. (I feel like 9 lineups should be about enough for an entire season, but what do I know?):

    [​IMG]

    Of the 9 lineups, 4 played .500-or-above basketball. The most effective lineup was Prince, Sheed, Dice, Rip, and Stuckey (19 games played, 73% won). Had this lineup been able to play the entire season, and had the team played consistently at this performance level throughout the season (a big IF), this would have put us in 3rd place in the East, above Orlando. The remaining three .500-or-above lineups all featured AJ at power forward. (Interesting note: AJ is the only one who didn't play in any of the 5 sub-.500 lineups)

    I will let others try to interpret this data, but the one common thread I see is: COACH, GET A CLUE!!
     
  14. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    He Good and we NEED him on the floor!! I think I heard that once. Seems like a logical conclusion??
     
  15. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Logging that would've discombobulated my head.
    -
    But what about 6th man in game insertions, he's fairly critical too don't ja think?
    What about 7th man?
     
  16. Latinoking90

    Latinoking90 Bench Warmer

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    Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, & Allen Iverson are more CLUTCH than Chauncey Billups.

    NBA Game Winning Shots -- leading players

    [SIZE=-1]Player[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Fgm[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Fga[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Fg%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Ftm[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Fta[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Ast[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]T/O[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1] Allen Iverson[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]13 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]33 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].394[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]6 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]8 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]1 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1] Richard Hamilton[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]8 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]22 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].364[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]4 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]4 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]3 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]3 [/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1] Tayshaun Prince[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]6 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]17 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].353[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]5 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]1 [/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1] Chauncey Billups[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]6 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]37 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].162[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]18 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]19 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]6 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2

    Rasheed Wallace is lower, but is still listed:

    [/SIZE][SIZE=-1] Rasheed Wallace[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]5 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]30 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1].167[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]0 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2 [/SIZE]
     
  17. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    The Mr. Big Shot thing was a byproduct of the guy with the ball in his hands, choosing to take the last shot. The reputation was developed PRE-LB, because when LB came in, Billups was never tagged to be the guy to always take the last shot. He was expected to get his teammates good opportunities.
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Now that we have a more significant data set, here is where the +/- numbers per minute for individuals is shaking out:
    1. [STRIKE]Hamilton +.634[/STRIKE]
    2. Villanueva +.016
    3. B Wallace +.015
    4. B. Gordon -.014
    5. Stuckey -.020
    6. [STRIKE]Prince -.043[/STRIKE]
    7. Maxiell -.060
    8. Bynum -.072
    9. Jerebko -.092
    10. A. Daye -.108
    11. Kwame -.154
    12. [STRIKE]Summers -.228[/STRIKE]
    13. [STRIKE]Wilcox -.405[/STRIKE]
    14. [STRIKE]Atkins -.706[/STRIKE]
    The strike outs have limited minutes and their data shouldn't be taken seriously.

    Overall, this has been a pretty good regression analysis, because we've played all sorts of different lineups... no A team, B team. Also, nobody has really be screwed by being forced onto the court during MC small ball session.

    I'd say that biggest surprise in my mind is that CV is leading the way. We've seen over the past few years that the Sheed always stayed near the top in this category. It was because of his defense, but also because he was a unique weapon-- a big man who could score in a variety of ways. Having a player like that on the floor makes the team better.

    Ben is also at the top, which is exactly what you'd expect after watching him so far this year.
     
  19. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Hey TaS, you ever gunna answer my PMs? This is reminding me of high school where everyone pretended I didn't exist.
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    There might be a malfunction. I've sent you a couple and you didn't respond to me.

    If you're not getting any response from anybody, then there is probably a system wide issue here.
     

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