The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The high DNP frequency is a streak killer.
  2. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Look at personal fouls...
  3. tads

    tads First Round Draft Pick

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  4. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    After skimming the first half of the thread I have some rookie questions.

    TaShawn presented some numbers on defense sorted by defensive points allowed per 48 min. Wouldn't a per 100 possessions stat be more appropriate since the change in defensive points allowed could depend on the player slowing down/speeding up the offense thus changing the amount of opponent possessions per 48 min? Or is this negligible?

    Another thing I read was the discussion about stolen rebounds, or rather in particular the parts about splitting offensive and defensive rebs. I actually had some thoughts about this last night when I noticed that the D gets 0.74 of the rebs which leaves the O with only 0.26. Doesn't this mean that a offensive rebound is worth almost three times as much as a defensive since you gain 0.74 expected possessions (it's still the same possession, but didn't know how to explain it better) from the other team when grabbing an offensive compared to 0.26 when getting a defensive? If this is true then I guess it makes it vital to separate offensive and defensive rebounds. Does this make 0.74/0.26*O + D a better way to add the rebounds when evaluating a player? Or is my logic flawed?
  5. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    This is a good point. When the 2004 Championship Pistons went on their big run of holding teams to under 70 points, a lot of that could have been attributed to the fact that Detroit had one of the slowest offenses in the league. Opponents were simply not getting many possessions.


    I think your logic is flawed in this one. :)

    If guys are not collecting the defensive rebounds, then that means they are giving up extra possessions to the other team. All rebounds are important, irregardless if it is offensive or defensive. I don't think one is more valuable than the other.
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    ........
  7. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Thanks guys. Will check out that link. And btw, with the defensive stats I meant the individual numbers where Kwame turned out to be the best defender in the team, not the team stat. I realize playing style isn't negligible when comparing teams 48 min stats, but was more thinking of the small (?) effect for example Kwame has on the amount off possessions in a game.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Understood.

    Per possession is the best for that. It's just a harder stat to find.

    If you look at the plus/minus section in this link, then you can figure out how many possessions per 48 min we averaged with Kwame on the court.

    Kwame Brown of the Detroit Pistons, NBA player stats

    1207 points by the team with KB on the floor
    658 minutes with KB on the floor
    100.9 points per 100 possessions (stat given to us by 82 games)

    So, 1.009 points per possession
    Which means 1,196 possessions with Kwame last year
    Which means 1.8176 possession per minute
    Which means 87.25 possessions per 48 min with Kwame on the court.


    Let's compare to someone who we think might speed up the tempo...
    Jerebko (with 2 healthy achilles tendons).

    4,350 points by the team
    2,230 minutes with JJ on floor
    108.2 points per 100 possessions

    So, 1.082 points per possession
    4,020 possessions with JJ on court last year
    1.8028 possessions per minute
    86.54 possessions per 48 min with Jerebko on the court

    Team was actually slower with jerebko than kwame. There are many reasons why this could be the case (less turnovers with JJ, more defensive rebounds for Kwame and outlets, different cast of teammates/ point guards, etc).
  9. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Interesting, sometimes you just get the wrong impression and stick with it. Perhaps Kwames higher pace is because of his natural inability to palm the ball?

    I found a post by Phil Birnbaum who writes the blog Sabermetric Research claiming "Defensive rebounding stats: barely meaningful?" Sabermetric Research: Defensive rebounding stats: barely meaningful?

    He refers to another blog called Count The Basket where a study in diminishing returns on rebounding is presented. (this guy actually mentions the exact same link you did TaS) Count The Basket » Diminishing Returns and the Value of Offensive and Defensive Rebounds

    Dunno what to make of this really but it supports the idea of valuing offensive and defensive differently. There were more links in the studies but I haven't read them all since every link led to a guy recommending two other links all the time.
  10. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    On a sidenote, I just love how a forum created in 2004 with 1351 members looks like the APBR-forum does. In effect only one subforum where they post every new thread and it looks like they haven't done a single change to the layout except adding the APBR-logo in the upper left corner. Hardcore stuff imo!
  11. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    When I wrote the post about 5-man units in the rotation thread I noticed some tendencies of Stuckey plus another PG having decent results (a claim made many times here) and a few days later I stumbled upon statistics for tandems on 82games.com. However there was no stats for tandems available for the 09/10 season but who cares *dramatic pause* when you can make your own!

    [WARNING - VERY FLAWED AND UNRELIABLE STUDY FOLLOWS, PROCEED AT OWN RISK]

    I took the data for our 30 best 5-man units from 82games.com* and pasted it into Microsoft Excel. I removed all lineups not containing Supercollider and sorted the units with Bynum or Chucky in one column and kept the rest in another. This resulted in 951.4 minutes of Stuckey without a PG and 379.1 minutes with Stuckey next to a PG. Pretty small samples, I know, but it was all I could find in the limited search I did. Some units might have played during garbage time, some played small ball, some played against the best there is jada jada. A lot of flaws so take everything with a pinch of salt. After arranging the data I weighted everything for minutes played and calculated Win% and the units net points per 100 possessions.

    Who cares, give us the results!

    Units with Stuckey next to a PG outperformed the other category in both departments showing a Win% of 53.61 compared to 46.43 and net points by 8.87 to -0.65.

    I haven't drawn any big conclusions from this since I only did it for fun and not for finding out the ultimate truth but it looks like Stuck plays better next to a PG. But it could also depend on alot of other things ofcourse. One thing I noticed when arranging the units was that none of the Stuckey/PG units included Hamilton, but a third of the minutes included Gordon. This might skew the results somewhat (in any direction).

    Provided some thumbnails of the sheets but I didn't have the energy to fix the layout. The column without topic is just a some middle step in a calculation.

    * Detroit Pistons top five man units data from 82games.com

    [​IMG]
    Without extra PG.

    [​IMG]
    With extra PG.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Keep in mind also that the 82games "best" 30 combos sorts by cummulative +/-, not per minute.

    So, if the starters have a positive point differential tendency, they tend to show up at the top of the list. If they are slightly negative, they show up at the bottom, since it is magnified by the number of minutes they play together.

    Ideally, they'd rank by +/- per minute with a qualifying cutoff limit at some minutes level that becomes statistically significant.


    In some ways last year is tough to draw data from because it was so screwed up, but in other ways, we got to see a ton of different combinations and it makes individual +/- stats more meaningful.
  13. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I took the stats from Pistons Top Five Man Units where they seem to be sorted by minutes since there is a bunch of different statistics. I noticed the cummulative effect in +/- so I removed them from the Excel arc and only used the Off, Def and Win% stats.

    I agree, it is very flawed. The study was more made for fun and shouldn't be taken to seriously.
  14. 2Tough4You

    2Tough4You Bench Warmer

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    Some interesting stats so far...


    [SIZE=-2]Production[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]On Court/Off Court[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Simple[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Player[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Min[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Own[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Opp[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Net[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]On[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Off[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Net[/SIZE] [SIZE=-2]Rating[/SIZE]

    [SIZE=-1]Gordon[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 64%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 20.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 19.9[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +0.6[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -0.6 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -18.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +17.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +7.5[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]McGrady[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 31%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 13.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 11.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +2.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -0.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -9.8 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +9.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +5.1[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Villanueva[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 57%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 16.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 20.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -3.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -0.9[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -15.1[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +14.2[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +3.4
    [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Stuckey[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 59%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 18.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 9.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +9.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -10.2 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -2.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -7.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +2.6[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Bynum[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 19%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 6.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 14.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -8.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +3.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -9.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +12.7[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +0.3
    [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]Daye[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 45%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 10.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 20.9[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -10.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -5.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -8.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +3.0 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -5.0[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Monroe[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 30%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 6.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 22.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -15.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -0.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -9.8[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +9.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -5.5[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Maxiell[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 20%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 8.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 22.7[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -14.6[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -4.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -7.6[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]+3.2[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -7.5[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Hamilton[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 45%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]12.3[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 18.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -6.2[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -13.1[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -2.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -11.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -8.1[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Prince[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 72%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]10.7[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 13.2[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -2.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -12.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +6.6[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]-19.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -9.1[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Wallace[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 51%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]15.4[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 19.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -4.1[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -15.8 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] +2.0[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -17.9[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -9.6[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Summers[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 9%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 2.9[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] 21.5[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -18.6[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -26.2 [/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -5.1[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -21.1[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1] -19.6[/SIZE]


    Detroit Pistons NBA stats and data from 82games.com

    I think it's interesting to note that despite the fact that Stuckey has one of the worst +/- ratings on the team (which would seem to be most affected by him playing most of his minutes with Prince and Hamilton adn Wallace, who have 3 of the worst ratings on the team), he has by far and away the best net gain in production of anyone on this team, out producing his counterpart by +9.4 when he is on the floor. Gordon has a high offensive rating (higher than Stuckey even) but it's almost completely negated by how his opponent matches his production.

    To this point, I don't think it's at all crazy to say that Stuckey has been our best player and by a considerable margin.

    (sorry if that's hard to read... just follow the link. I tried double spacing the text, but it won't let me)
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This might point toward Stuckey being a deceptively strong defender too.

    The old guard is looking bad, but they are also the ones that are about there playing against starters.

    If you bring them off the bench, the other guys probably struggle and the old guys look great. We have a bunch of talented, but limited/ flawed players.

    The offensive guys can't play D. The defensive guys can't play O. We have tall guys who like to shoot from deep and we have short guys who like to drive to the hoop and get packed.
  16. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    So the Pistons have ascended from 30th to 20th in the NBA Power rankings...

    Looking at the 4-6 record after 10 games we still have some work to stat wise.

    In the defensive cats, we are 29th in rebounds with 38.1 pergame...Twolves first @ 48.27
    22nd in blocks with 4.1 pg, Bulls first with 7.5 pg
    20th in steals with 6.8 spg, Grizzlied first with 11.3

    turnovers...5th best in holding on to the ball at 13.7 turns pg..Miami # 1 with 13

    Offense
    26th in scoring at 95.4 pg...giving up 99.8 which is actually the 12 best defensively

    Assits per game #27 at 18.1 which seems higher than last year but still low. Celtics #1 at 26.8 due to Rondo

    23rd in shooting from the floor @ 44.5% -- Hawks # 1 at 49.3%
    three

    second in 3 pt shooting at 41.6% behind the Spurs 44.0 --Thanks CV, BG and AD

    FT shooting 27th overall at a dismal 70.2%. I think this is where we finished last year.

    The culprits...Big Ben 28.6%, Monroe, 31.3%, Max 50% and Tay 56.5%.

    Our top three...Bengo at 90.2%, Daye @ 87.5% and Rip at 85.2%
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's some serious mediocrity!

    Can 3 pointers alone get us into the playoffs?
  18. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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  19. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The summary or individual comments about each player written by brgulker seemed to have been lifted right out of the Piston forum pages......great analysis as it seems like everybody agrees what our faults are with the exception the Piston coaching staff.joe.org
  20. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    I liked this:

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