The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just want to provide a follow up to the criticism of Amir not being able to stay on the court due to foul trouble.

    This year, AJ has 13 games with over 30 minutes played and only 4 games with less than 15 minutes. He has 27 double digit scoring performances with 8 double doubles. 13 multi block games and 24 games with at least one steal.

    For comparison:
    Rodney Stuckey has 13 games with over 35 minutes played and 4 games with less than 15 minutes. He has 3 double doubles.

    And our bigs?

    Player: >30 min played/ dubdubs
    CV: 8/ 4
    GM: 12/ 5
    CW: 2/ 1
    JM: 2/ 0
    BW: 4/ 1

    In fact, no Pistons big man (including Villanueva) has logged as many minutes as Amir this year. Amir is only 23 total minutes behind Stuckey, which would put him in a tie for 3rd on the Pistons this year.

    No Piston big man has as many double doubles.

    And here's the gross comparison between Monroe and Amir:

    Playa: Pts/ Reb/ Ast/ Stl/ Blk/ FG%
    GMon: 315/ 289/ 38/ 47/ 19/ .512
    AmirJ: 489/ 316/ 55/ 35/ 51/ .586

    Monroe is having a very nice year, but Amir is having an even better one. He's 3rd in FG% in the league. He's even out-assisting Monroe.

    We have a very bad collection of bigs when Amir Johnson is dwarfing them all in almost every statistical category.

    It took me a little while to form an opinion on Monroe, but I'm definitely liking what I'm seeing for a rookie. He and Jerebko should provide some value to us for the next few years, but we also need a real big man who is athletic and has offensive skills. Boozer, Randolph, etc. We can't keep up this guard buffoonery.
     
  2. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Maybe he's staying on the court longer because he figured out how to play without fouling.

    His fouling rate (fouls per minute played) was between 0.18 and 0.19 last year in Toronto and the prior two in Detroit. This year he's dropped that by nearly 20% to 0.15.
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    He's still fouling a ton (almost the league leader), but you're right, it has gone done some. It's difficult to tell if he has actually adjusted his game or whether he's just getting more respect from the refs.

    His block rate is down I believe, so that would indicate that he has tried to gamble less.

    One other factor is that Toronto's coach is just leaving him on the floor longer. It always puzzled me that a coach would pull a young player because he is in foul trouble. It's like they are afraid to let a player foul out.

    For all of the talk and worry about his fouls, he has fouled out 7 times in 6 years. Only 1 time last season. Sheed was getting ejected at a higher rate. Same with Rip I believe.
     
  4. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It would be a chore to figure out, but with the right data you could figure out the cost of getting into the penalty too early. Maybe the coach doesn't care if he fouls out, but cares about giving up even two or three extra free throws in a quarter.
     
  5. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I read a article about a study quite recently regarding why coaches pull players when they are in foul trouble. The conclusions of the study was that the primary reason the coaches pulled the players wasn't the fear of fouling out, it was because the players played suboptimally because they were afraid of getting another foul.

    Edit:

    The study - http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1736633
     
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Very cool charts with the NBA logos!

    So, the essence of the issue seems to be that players ease back their aggression when they are close to the limit. I'm sure they do this when they are at Q (vs Q+1) as well, but maybe to a lesser extent since they still know that they can re-enter the game later.

    They looked at starters only. Starters are obviously better than their backups on the whole, so it makes sense for a starter to ease off the gas a little bit to stay in the game. Their performance will decrease, but as long as that decreased performance is still better than their backup, it is wise to leave them in the game.

    This study seems to say that when starters do that, the team suffers. The key missing data point here is: "how would they have done if they would have been subbed out?" We see that some teams who sub out the starters do better than other teams that don't... but that gets to the strength of the other teams' bench.

    It is funny how unconventional Don Nelson is. I really like that he has a theory and then has the guts to implement it. There is way too much convention in pro sports. Coaches are the ultimate lemmings.
     
  7. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Ironically, lemmings are NOT the ultimate lemmings. Lemming suicide is a myth.
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Coincidental timing on my Amir Johnson playing time post as he just logged his 2nd highest minute game of his 267 game career tonight with 40:41.

    20 points
    14 rebounds
    1 assist
    1 steal
    2 blocks
    73% from the field
    3 personal fouls

    He's playing some high energy bball, so 40+ minutes of his style seems pretty exhausting.
     
  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    If you're going to use totals (vs. averages), then you need to add:

    Minutes: GMon 1090, Amir 1252

    You could also throw in:

    Turnovers: GMon 43, Amir 53

    Finally, you throw in that it's Amir's 6th NBA season, GMoney's 1st NBA season.
     
  10. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Amir Johnson - Sprocket.

    All this comes from finally getting onto a good team, wearing the...

    What are my team colors anyway?
     
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is about the first time in my life that I've used gross totals instead of averages or per minute. My point in the initial post is that he's played more minutes that every single one of our bigs, including GM. Hence, I'm showing gross production.

    There are plenty of other stats that I could have provided, but didn't for the sake of relevance.

    Amir does have 10 more turnovers on the year, but it seems like a small difference and Monroe has a worse assist/TO ratio than Amir Johnson, so it didn't seem relevant. It is very surprising that Amir has a higher assist rate and a better A/to ratio since Monroe is thought to have been one of the best passers in college bball last year at any position... but I expect Monroe to surpass Amir in this category next year when he gets more comfortable.

    As far as the seasons of experience, Monroe has already played more minutes this year in 1/2 of a season than Amir did in his first 3 seasons. It seems like playing at a high level at Georgetown was probably an advantage over sitting on the bench in Detroit.

    Amir played more minutes last night than he did in his rookie season with Det.
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Looks like Freakonomics nailed it on their Sumo wrestling analysis 6 years ago.

    Sumo 'fixing' scandal rocks Japan - CNN.com#

    The Freakonomics study focused on win trading between Sumo wrestlers and concluded that it was occuring (expected win rates would jump from 50% to 75%+ when one wrestler needed a win and the other didn't). Then, the next time they'd face the same opponent, they'd tend to give the win back.

    Sumo wrestling in Japan is like baseball is here. This is like the black sox for them.

    This is much more unthinkable than a little rigging between NBA refs. If there's an incentive, there is probably somebody profiting from it.
     
  13. 2Tough4You

    2Tough4You Bench Warmer

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    Monroe has rarely been given the opportunity to make plays for his teammates out of the post this year, so I don't look too much into the low assist numbers.
     
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm not worried about it either. Just surprised that they aren't taking advantage of his ability. He was producing some great passes early in the season and then they just sort of died out. It's too unique of a weapon to not use though, so Kuester better be thinking about it.

    Monroe did seem gun shy offensively to start the season, so maybe they didn't want him to look to pass first.

    Overall, his finishing ability is the best development (as detailed in the article posted earlier today). He's getting blocked much less often and his FG% is shooting up.
     
  15. FreshPrince22

    FreshPrince22 Bench Warmer

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    He's gone from one of the worst finishing bigs in the league, to one of the best. Reminds me of Scola with his crafty, under-the-rim finishes.

    I'm impressed. I didn't think he could become this automatic in the paint, much less only a few months into his rookie year.

    I see his teammates getting more and more confident in him, and I expect his assists to rise as they start getting him the ball more often than only when he's open at the hoop. We saw a little of that tonight.
     
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm going a little abstract here.

    Win shares per 48 minutes.

    I'm identifying who the active career leaders were in this stat throughout history. These are the only 10 men to ever lead this stat.

    Neil Johnston
    Bob Pettit
    Wilt Chamberlain
    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
    Michael Jordan
    David Robinson
    Shaquille O'Neal
    Tim Duncan
    Lebron James
    Chris Paul (2011)

    This is a pretty sweet list that Chris Paul just worked his way onto.


    By the way, Ben Wallace holds the single season defensive rating record in NBA History.


    One other really random stat. Darko leads the NBA in block percentage this year with 6.69%. This is the lowest percentage for an NBA leader in this category since 1976. What happened to all of the shot blockers?
     
  17. pistons_team of SFs

    pistons_team of SFs Banned - Sent to NBDL

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    tashawn kill yo self plz.. n thx
     
  18. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Good morning to you too, sunshine.
     
  19. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    His writing has evolved quite a bit since he joined the forum 2 months back. He was a little shy at first and I believe he is starting to open up. Who can forget his first post, a quiet yet sweet, introduction to the Pistonsforum:

     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    ...boy that's just a straight shooter with upper management written all over him.
     

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