The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Stuckey's opponent's production was the lowest on the team though. There are so many picks set and it is a complicated concept to figure out how to judge a guard's overall defensive impact. With a paint protecting big man, it is obvious to see their impact. But with a guard, nobody can stay with their man due to the multiple picks per possession. Stuckey is bigger than average and strong, so maybe he's a better defender after switches, etc.

    I have never considered him to be a weak defender while watching him, but it's generally not something that I'm focused on while watching the games.

    Here is what Draft Express says about his defense... I'll defer to them

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  2. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    As if we needed anything more to appreciate Singler and Drummond, they are 1 and 2 in the league among rookies in adjusted field goal percentage.

    2012-13 Regular Season NBA Player Stats and League Leaders - Field Goals - National Basketball Association - ESPN

    Singler is second among qualified rookies in 3p% (English is first!) and 6th in ppg.
    Drummond leads all rookies in blocks and offensive rebounds (ORB by a wide margin) and is third in defensive rebounds.

    2012-13 NBA Leaders | Basketball-Reference.com

    In addition, Drummond leads the league as a whole in offensive rebound percentage, is 4th overall in rebound percentage, 8th overall in block percentage, and 7th overall (!) in defensive rating.

    (note: for all of the flack Monroe gets for his defense, he's currently 9th in steals and 15th overall in defensive rating - to have two bigs in the top 15 is pretty impressive, IMHO)

    Singler is 8th in effective field goal percentage, 17th in 3p%, and 19th in offensive rating. He's also 9th in personal fouls, which is a bit of a head-scratcher.

    We have a bright future with these two guys, I suspect.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Hopefully this goes down in history as Joe's best ever drafting performance. If Middleton pans out, that would just about cement it.
  4. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    To be fair, though... Singler was drafted last year.
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Good point. It's so frustrating to hear that a draft pick is going to play in Europe because you want instant help, but it makes so much sense. It's a better atmosphere than the D-League and it probably makes the players grow up a little faster being away from their support system.
  6. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's a really good point. Actually, I thought more high-schoolers would go to Europe and get paid for a year when Stern instituted the one-year-removed rule.
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just an update on the +/- for the year, broken down per minute and multiplied by 48. The point is to show the average margin of victory or loss if the team played a full game at each players per minute rate. This list includes the game from tonight against Golden State. I filtered out all players with less minutes than Kim English, b/c they were all light samples.

    1) B.O.T.: +12.05
    2) The Penguin: +1.64
    3) Tripler: +0.09
    4) Knight Rider: -1.40
    5) Max Truck: -1.88
    6) Pump Fayke: -3.60
    7) Kenglish: -3.64
    8) Bad Porn: -3.95
    9) Moose: -5.86
    10) Super Collider: -7.68
    11) Teen Wolf: -7.99
    12) My Name is Jonas: -15.41

    Filtered out due to low sample size (put absolutely no reliance on any of these):
    Arnie's B$%#: +59.54
    Kardashian: +29.22
    русский парень: No minutes. Could be большой, could be дерьмо
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  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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  9. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    This isn't new.
    The AOTG has been around for almost 10 years now.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Ha. I was going to bring that up, but didn't want to set you off.
  11. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    ...Jus sayin that those hacks at Grantland need to start doing their homework.
    It's getting to be as bad a Bleacher Report over there.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Pistons started the season 0-8. Since then we are 7-7.

    In the 0-8 stretch, we averaged 91.25 pts and our opponents averaged 101.50.
    In the 7-7 stretch, we averaged 95.86 pts and our opponents averaged 94.14.

    Singler has started in the last 14 games. Stuckey has come off the bench in the last 13.

    In the 1st game after their switch, here is how it went:
    Stuckey was -19. Kyle was +17.

    In the last 12 games:
    Stuckey is +13. Kyle is -3.

    Over the same 13 game stretch, Drummond is +41 and leads the team, so Stuckey is getting a big bump from him.


    But when you look at their actual performance, Stuckey has been playing pretty well lately. If you believe that he has migraine, sinus infection, medication issues early, then the pattern sort of fits together (will show in next post).
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  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    THESIS: Stuckey without Migraines is better than Singler

    I'm just comparing their stats for the last 13 games where they both played and where Singler started with Stuckey off the bench. Their 4th quarter appearances were mixed as the coach used one or the other depending on how it was going.

    Gross figures:
    Stat: KS/ RS
    Min: 406/ 339
    Pts: 130/ 149
    FGA: 99/ 115
    Reb: 50/ 43
    Ast: 17/ 54
    Stl: 9/ 7
    PF: 48/ 17

    Adjusted for minutes played (using per 36):
    Stat: KS/ RS
    Pts: 11.5/ 15.8
    Fga: 8.8/ 12.2
    aFG: .657/ .648
    Reb: 4.4/ 4.6
    Ast: 1.5/ 5.7
    Stl: 0.8/ .07
    PF: 4.3/ 1.8

    What a comeback by Stuckey. Both of these guys have been incredibly efficient with Stuckey's adj FG% almost matching Singler's... and Singler was near the top of the NBA in shooting efficiency so far. Since the horrid start, Stuckey has been hitting 3's (6 in the last 7 games) and also getting to the line like he used to. In terms of efficiency, these guys are actually a wash right now.

    Production: Stuckey creates his shot while Singler purely gets assisted. Therefore, Stuckey is able to get off about 50% more shot attempts and also get to the line a ton more... and again, he's doing it with the same efficiency, which makes it pretty amazing. Singler officially has the lowest usage on the team behind Maxiell and only averages 1 more point per game than Maxiell.

    Production 2: Stuckey has averaged almost 6 assists/ 36 min off the bench while Singler is only getting 1.5 in the starting lineup. Of course Stuckey is playing more point guard lately, but there is still a wide gulf between these 2 in this category. Wide. Stuckey has had 34 assists in his last 5 games (6, 6, 9, 7, 6) while averaging 30 mpg. That's 7+ assists/36 min- or roughly Tony Parker's pace- top 10 in the NBA. No bench player in the NBA has more assists per game and a better ast/tov ratio than Stuckey so far.

    They rebound the same and steal the ball the same.

    That just leaves defense. Singler is a SF playing the SG spot because of Prince. The foul rate seems to show that Singler is not quick enough to stay in front of starting SG's with his 4.3 PF/36 rate. Vince Carter is the only starting shooting guard in the NBA who is averaging a higher foul rate than that and it is almost identical. I really don't have much of an opinion on his overall effectiveness as a defender from watching him. He clearly tries hard. His size probably is effective on switches and when he's stuck in the paint, but I also notice that he's gets blown by quite a bit. The fouls are just so glaring compared to Stuckey that I need to mention it.


    Surprising stat of the day:
    Singler has 4 offensive fouls this year and Stuckey only has 5. Would have thought this would be no contest.



    Conclusion:
    If we are better with Singler starting at this point, then it is not because he is better, it is because Stuckey gets to utilize his PG skills more when he's away from Knight while the starters get better ball movement with Kyle.

    If I were the coach, I'd probably be considering keeping Stuckey as the 6th man and rotating him in the Ginobili way. Bench player that gets 32+ minutes and finishes the game in the 4th quarter. In games where Singler has it flowing from outside or against teams where penetration isn't wise, then finish with Singler.
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  14. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    NBA.com: AutoTrader +/- Stat

    Feel free to hit that jump there, and tell me what you notice about the top of that list. Any reason Frank is still holding onto the notion that he's better off the bench?
  15. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    And since nobody's going to see what else I just noticed, hit ctrl-F on that page and type "Villanueva," then clear it and type "Monroe." You might want to be sitting down.
  16. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    It seems like Stuckey is being subbed in after only 5-6 minutes of play which is what the Spurs do with Ginobli.

    I wish they used Drummond and Max the same way.

    Interesting stats.
  17. Sramud Samoht

    Sramud Samoht Second Round Draft Pick

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    I had the chance to watch Singler play every week last year ( since I am from Barcelona and I follow the Spanish league as well as the Euro competitions ) and he always played forward here. He started in a modest team as the big star, and then got transfered to Madrid which is a top team in Spain and Europe. Then he had to play less minutes per game but in more intense games and also face the best teams in Europe. He played well in both situations but always as a forward. A quite complete forward who can shoot and handle the ball but always short in assists. A hot-blooded player in every circumstance anyway.
    I think he is playing guard now because of the needs of a non balanced team, but I can't see him
    having a strong career in NBA as a guard.
    I know you guys see him play more often now and might have more elements to evaluate him properly, but I just wanted to let you know about last year, in my opinion.
    Greetings and GO PISTONS.
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  18. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Great insight. I wonder how well Tayshaun would do over in Europe.
  19. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    If I had to guess (and I know very little about European games), I would assume that he's a guard here because he's not as strong or savvy defensively enough to guard some of the more premier wings in the league (Lebron, Durant). Plus, we all know Frank has a man-crush on Prince, so there's that.
  20. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Monroe and Knight are #3(t) and 5 in the league in turnovers, respectively, with 154 in 24 games. That's 6.5 TOs per game from two players that are supposed to be the cornerstones of the franchise.

    Drummond leads all rotational players on the team in TReb/36, Blocks/36, PER, Win Shares, and Defensive rating. And yet he's on the bench because the team is a defense-first team.

    Oh, and he's also tops in FG%, OReb/36 and Offensive rating even though he carries the second lowest usage rating.

    2012-13 Detroit Pistons Roster and Stats | Basketball-Reference.com
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