The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    nice breakdown. the 3 point shooting is great. bynum is solid when he's wide open I guess. Jose is solid always, but lights out with drum.
     
  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    TaS can I request a stat breakdown on Josh Smith when you have time?
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Is it cool if I commission Laimbraine to do it?
     
  4. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Sure. I am all about outsourcing.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I actually sorted through his history a bit and can't find much that I think is interesting.

    His first 3 years in the league he was at SF and then has been at PF ever since. I've seen a lot of writers compare his performance at the 2 positions, but I'm not really comfortable doing that with a 19-21 year old in one set and a 22-27 year old in the other. Too tough to separate improvement from position change.

    I've also seen comparisons to the Ben Gordon signing, which I think are stretching. They say that BG was one dimensional and didn't fit a position for us and claim that Smith is too. However, Smith actually scores quite a bit (whereas BG didn't play defense quite a bit). I'm always more comfortable erring toward the defensive players because I just feel like they are undervalued by the league on the whole. So much that they do doesn't show up in the box score. In contract, there wasn't a single thing that BG did that didn't show up in the box score.

    On Synergy, the general pattern was that Smith is tough defensively and that he's slightly better offensively than what guys do against him. For example, if he gives up .71 points per attempt in the post, he scores .75 himself in the post per attempt. The good news is that he'll be up against the Lebron's of the league on 35%+ of the defensive possessions while we should try to only run 20% of the offense through him.

    This is one where we are getting a defensive player and an athlete. It's up to the coaches to figure out how to make it work, even if it is unconventional.
     
  6. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    At roughly 14m/yr, this guy is a steal. I have thought for years he needed to leave Atlanta and go to another team (although I didn't ever really envision it being Detroit) to perform properly. Sometimes you could just see that he was unhappy there.
     
  7. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Yes. Why people think we are overpaying at a 14m per year average is beyond me.
     
  8. linwood

    linwood All-Star

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    In theory, we could get like, 3 Jimmers for that kind of cash. Of course, I know that's silly, because there is only one Jimmer!
     
  9. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    You are a good person.
     
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  10. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

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    Would anybody want more? :loser:
     
  11. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    This should go in a new Josh Smith thread.
     
  12. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Shut it, Nemo.
     
  13. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Well, I misclicked and closed the post that had all of the team data I calculated (when I hit Ctrl-Shift-T it opened this blank one), and I'm not about to redo it all. The short of it was that the Hawks' average point differential per 100 possessions increased by about 7 when Smith was on the floor. They rebounded the ball better, blocked more shots, hit a higher percentage of their shots, forced more and caused fewer turnovers, and in generally did every single possible thing better, with the single exception of a .3% drop in offensive rebounding % and a 6.6% drop in free throw shooting (Smith isn't a great shooter). Of course, that's just team, so let's look at individuals.

    Per nbawowy.com:
    %Time on court shared:
    Teague: 81.4
    Korver : 80
    Horford: 73.5
    Stevenson: 69.7
    Harris: 67.0
    Pargo: 60.5
    Williams: 58.9
    Pachulia: 51.3
    Petro: 50.2
    Johnson: 43.3
    Tolliver: 43.0
    Jenkins: 35.1
    Morrow: 31.9
    Jones: 31.3
    Scott: 13.2


    PPP (points per possession) with Smith on:
    Teague: +0.1
    Korver: +0.08
    Horford: +0.14
    Stevenson: +0.11
    Harris: + 0.07
    Pargo: + 0.69
    Williams: +0.1
    Pachulia: -0.01
    Petro: +0.21
    Johnson: -0.1
    Tolliver: +0.12
    Jenkins: -0.09
    Morrow: -0.14
    Jones: +0.24
    Scott: +0.34

    So while Smith has a reputation for being only an average offensive player, it's clear that nearly everyone on the team was better offensively when he was on the court. The guys that suffered on this list were shooting guards/small forwards, for what it's worth; the Hawks' big men (Horford, Petro, and Scott... Pachulia was effectively neutral) were more effective offensively with Smith on the court.

    eFG:
    Teague: +3.7
    Korver: +3.7
    Horford: +5
    Stevenson: +4.7
    Harris: -0.5
    Pargo: +30.6
    Williams: +6.1
    Pachulia: +1.1
    Petro: +13.1
    Johnson: -2.4
    Tolliver: +7.4
    Jenkins: -7.6
    Morrow: -14.9
    Jones: +16.6
    Scott: +20.9

    This, to me, is huge. Smith's effect was such that nearly everyone that played with him shot markedly better. Again, the big winners were the big men.

    Total Reb%
    Teague: -0.4
    Korver: +0.3
    Horford: -1
    Stevenson: -1.8
    Harris: -1.1
    Pargo: +0.1
    Williams: -0.1
    Pachulia: -2.1
    Petro: +0.4
    Johnson: +0.7
    Tolliver: -1.1
    Jenkins: -1.5
    Morrow: +0.9
    Jones: -0.3
    Scott: -5.8

    Big shock... everyone's rebound rate went down. The team's went up, though, so Smith was a net positive.

    Now, the net effect...
    Per 82games.com:
    Josh Smith of the Atlanta Hawks, NBA player stats

    Note: SF accounted for about 13% of his minutes, PF for about 74%, and C for about 13%
    [​IMG]

    This is probably a little biased because he would mostly be playing against small forwards when they were a good matchup, but we can see that he's actually pretty effective as a SF. That's where he defends best and his eFG is at its highest. His rebound rate drops, but that's probably because he's out on the wing more.

    This data makes me feel better about the acquisition than I was. 3 pointers accounted for only 17% of his shots last year (about 1 in every 6); the way everyone was talking, I thought that rate would be at least twice that. Meanwhile, he clearly has a definitive advantage against opposing small forwards, and it looks here as if it's his best position. Now, again, you're dealing with a potential bias with the matchups that affect the positions he is playing, but when you think about it, he'll have a huge size advantage over just about any opposing small forward in the league, to the point where a slight drop in production offensively is vastly offset by his ability to shut down every opposing 3 not named Lebron James.

    I'm liking this team now. Obviously their short some point guard play, but the record shows that Smith plays best as a small forward and with big men. Just because small forwards traditionally don't play in the post does not mean that he can't.

    Everyone raise up your glasses of Kool-Aid and toast to our new small forward!
     
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    In terms of the correlation with other teammates doing better offensively when they are on the floor with him, also consider that he's usually in the game when the best players from the other team are in the game (so it supports the argument that he's a positive presence). For instance, if you pulled Will Blalock's effect, you'd expect guys to play better than average with him because it would mean that they were usually playing in a GT situation against the other teams worst players.
     
  15. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Looking at NBA.com 3-unit stats from Atlanta last year, the three-man units (in order of ORating - DRating) where he played as a SF:
    Horford-Johnson-Smith (107.3-92.6 = +14.7) (110 minutes)
    Horford-Pachulia-Smith (100.6-98.3 = +2.3) (309 minutes)
    Horford-Petro-Smith (105.9-110.4 = -4.5) (50 minutes)
    Johnson-Pachulia-Smith (89.5-105 = -15.6) (68 minutes)
    Johnson-Petro-Smith (didn't play together)
    Pachulia-Petro-Smith (didn't play together)

    So long as they had another offensive big, it looks like the team was okay. Johnson and Smith were their two top players in terms of Defensive rating (101 each), but neither one was great offensively. Petro also had a negative offensive win share, and it looks like that affected Smith.

    I get the feeling that there's more to Smith's jacking up of shots than just him being selfish. eFGs were: Horford (.545), Johnson (.521), Pachulia (.471), Petro (.441). You'll notice that the correlation between the sum total of their eFGs and the performance together; I suspect that when Smith feels he's the best offensive option, he has to take the shot. When he feels like he's there to support and play defense, however, the team is much more effective.

    The weird thing is that the script is a little flipped here... even though Drummond's (.610) eFG is much higher than Monroe's (.486), Monroe is the scorer. I think that if Smith feels like Monroe sucks as a scorer, and Drummond is just a catch-and-dunk guy, you might see Smith get frustrated and the team play less effectively. But with Monroe and Drummond you have a tandem similar to Horford/Johnson in their roles, and that might be enough to keep Smith playing within the team framework.
     
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  16. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    So the numbers on that are a bit off, but I don't feel like fixing them right now. Regardless, here are a couple of interesting results, per nbawowy.com

    On:
    Horford-Johnson-Smith: PPP (1.098)/eFG (52.2)/3P% (41.2)/AstRate (22.2)/ORB-DRB (30.3/73.1)
    Off:
    Horford-Johnson: PPP (1.059)/eFG (50.2)/3P% (36.7)/AstRate (23.4)/ORB-DRB (24/74)

    On:
    Horford-Pachulia-Smith: PPP (1.028)/eFG (53.1)/3P% (34)/AstRate (27.2)/ORB-DRB (20.9/74.4)
    Off:
    Horford-Pachulia: PPP (1.053)/eFG (50.7)/3P% (38.7)/AstRate (25.8)/ORB-DRB (33.2/74.3)

    So here we have two similar units with very different performance. I'll try to come back and talk about this later.
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This seems like it will be very interesting to play around with. Don't have much time now, but couldn't help messing around a little to see what the capabilities are of this thing.

    NBA Stats - Player Tracking

    For instance, Greg Monroe is leading the league in "rebound chances per game" so far with 23.5. Defined as being within 3.5 feet of a rebound.

    He lurks at the rim.


    Will Bynum is shooting 80% on drives to the hoop so far this year (16 drives). Of players with at least 10 drives, there are only 3 guys who are more efficient (Jefferson, Cole, and Ginobili).

    Josh Smith leads the Pistons so far in secondary assists with 2.0 per game (defined as passes made to the guy who assists somebody within 2 seconds of them getting your pass).

    Josh Smith leads the entire NBA in "catch and shoot" 3-point attempts per game... not good.
    Andre Drummond leads the NBA in points per game scored within 10 feet of the basket and he's shooting 80% when inside that range.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2013
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  18. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I was just messing around with this today. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be a way to look at only Pistons (team) player stats. They have filters, but 'by team' isn't one of them.
     
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That was frustrating. Will probably be coming soon. It's a basic thing that most users would want to see.
     
  20. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It's also a bit difficult to find anything meaningful so early in the season. Unless you use the mins/gm filter for everything. They need to use qualification minimums.
     

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