The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    After three games, Smith, Monroe, and Drummond are 2nd, 3rd, and 6th in the league in minutes per game. I'm sure some of that has to do with the overtime game vs. Memphis, but it's interesting to note nonetheless.

    Also, amongst the top 20 players, Monroe is in there for a few rebounding stats, free throw volume, and turnovers; Smith for blocks and turnovers; and Drummond for rebounding and fg%. Also, Singler is in there for FT% and his low TO%.
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  2. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It's only 4 games but will this continue?

    Smith in 4 games this year: 39.3 mpg
    Last year: 35.3 mpg
    Smith is used to logging about 35 mpg. He has been doing it for about 8 years now. Look for him to continue logging about 35 mpg.

    Monroe in 4 games this year: 38.5 mpg
    Last year: 33.2 mpg
    Monroe's minutes have gradually ramped up from 28 to 31 to 33 over his first 3 seasons. He may log close to 35 mpg.

    Drummond in 4 games this year: 37.0 mpg
    Last year: 20.7 mpg
    Drummond averaged 27.0 mpg last April. With the intensity that he plays with, the foul trouble he gets into, and the inability to play in crunch time because he can't make a free throw, 30 mpg may be all that we could hope for.
  3. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Drummond and Smith on the court have led to some pretty shoddy results thus far...

    [​IMG]

    In fairness, this is a really small sample size, and the fact that Drummond's minutes have heavily overlapped with Smith's isn't helping sort out the data.

    But the fact that Singler and KCP have the highest on/off production ratios supports the idea that the Pistons are shooting themselves in the foot with this "three-bigs" rotation thing.
  4. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    I have faith in the "three-bigs" rotation. It goes against the grain of today's NBA, and when you don't have superstars like James or Durant, you need to find a disruptive solution to win.

    I think we are misusing the "three-bigs" most of the time. Instead of movement on-and-off the ball to create opportunities inside, we often fall back to "bomb-away from 3pt land for offensive rebounds" method. That doesn't work, especially against good teams like Pacers or Thunder.

    Besides, we don't have any starting caliber wing players, so if you start with a more traditional lineup (say Smith & Moose at the 4 and 5 spots), we'll be starting two sub-par players at the 2 and 3.
  5. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

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    The worst part is, that when they do create movements and run multiple picks, it nearly always ends up with Dre/Moose/Smith getting pretty much a hand off for an uncontested dunk. The size has to be an advantage if used the right way.

    But we should be bombing from 3pt land because the inside threat should lead to very open wing players. Smith has been gobbling up these opportunities though, which is silly.
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Detroit Pistons team performance by position for the 2013-2014 season from 82games.com

    I think that this pretty much indicates that we are getting DEMOLISHED at the SF position.

    Part of it is probably that we are getting exploited more than we are exploiting the Josh Smith mismatch and part of it is probably that our bench SFs are pretty much Singler and guards playing out of position (Stuckey, Pope, etc).


    It was pretty funny watching Singler moved to PF last night and having to guard David Lee.
  7. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Is Drummond leading the L in FG%?


    Sent from the new and improved Tapatalk 2.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yes. Need to get him more lobs. Also, how about his drive from the ft line? He appears able to do more than the coach thinks.
  9. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Wow, that is very telling TaS.

    Also, quite interesting that SG is our best defensive position. It sure doesn't look that way when you watch the game considering our atrocious perimeter defense.
  10. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    ...I didn't think that it was funny at all.
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Funny to a casual internet fan.
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  12. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I read that the Pistons are 1st in offensive rebounding and 30th in defensive rebounding. If it's true it can't be very common.
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I don't think that is true on a percentage basis, which is all that matters. Probably true on a gross basis since other teams make half their shots against us and get off 9 fewer shots per game than us.
  14. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

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    Smith needs to play at the 4. We need to get him away from the 3pt line during half court plays.
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just scouring Synergy trying to study how we play and how we defend in the big picture. Not even Maurice Cheeks would have a good feel for this stuff off the top of his head.

    Points per play (includes any shot attempt, FTs from shooting foul, and 1's, or a turnover) ranked from most common play to least common:

    Play: DET ppp/ OPP ppp [DET % run/ OPP % run]
    Spot up: .85/ .91 [16.9%/ 15.6]
    Transition: 1.08/ 1.22 [16.2/ 15.6]
    P&R handler: .79/ .81 [15.3/ 15.5]
    Post up: .76/ .70 [10.6/ 10.0]
    Cut to hoop: 1.41/ 1.34 [8.2/ 8.3]
    Offensive reb: 1.0/ 1.33 [8.0/ 5.1]
    Isolation: .86/ .91 [7.3/ 5.8]
    Other: .79/ .42 [6.1/ 7.8]
    P&R picker: .79/ 1.24 [5.5/ 6.0]
    Off Screen: .58/ .94 [3.1/ 4.3]
    Hand off: .32/ 1.15 [2.8/ 2.6]

    Overall on offense: .90 (12th best)
    Overall on defense: .94 (worst)

    .04 seems like a small difference, but consider that there are about 112 possessions per game by this measure (including offensive rebound resets). So, that's over 4 points.

    The proportion of the types of shots that we get closely resembles the proportion of the types of shots that other teams get on us. I haven't compared to the league overall, but I'm guessing that this is just sort of how it is in the NBA. A big difference might be a few percentage points in one category or another. The biggest differences between us and our opponents in these shot types is offensive rebounds and isolations to a lesser extent.


    Next Level:
    Now, what if we break down the data and try to determine what our deficit is per category per game? After crunching some numbers, here is what I come up with:

    Other: We get 1.94 more points than our opponents in non categorizable stuff.
    Off rebs: We are + 1.37 points per game
    Post ups: + 1.19
    Isolations: + 1.13
    Cuts to hoop: + 0.50
    Spot up J's: + 0.19
    P&R- handler shoots: -0.53
    Transition: -1.73
    Hand offs: -2.36
    Off screens: -2.53
    P&R picker: -3.49


    Conclusions:
    We do the most damage in things that defy categories, offensive rebounds, post ups, and isolations. Is it any coincidence that these are all things that have nothing to do with coaching?

    We're also really good at slashing (ranked 1st in the league in efficiency on cuts).

    We're getting killed on all things relating to actual organized basketball: P&R's, screens, hand offs, and transition.


    Either we have a really bad coach, we have uncoachable players, or there just hasn't been enough time to set up a system and train our players to play within it.

    So, maybe the silver lining is that this team is outplaying opponents in areas relating to talent. It's easier to fix the areas relating to organization and therefor this team has some serious upside if they are fixed.
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  16. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

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    See those hand off numbers? They are all to Josh Smith on the right side of the arc.
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Lebron James is having a ridiculously efficient year so far.

    TS% = .701
    eFG = .668
    FG = .622
    3P%= .517
    FT% = .771 (his 2nd best ever)

    PER = 30.1
    Ast rate = 36.4% (his 3rd best ever)

    Production
    Offense: 30.2
    Counterpart: 12.2 (i.e. LeBron is holding his man to this production level)
    Net: +20.0 !!!


    He's 2nd to Andre Drummond in FG%, even though he takes 59% of his shots from outside the paint.

    Lebron is doing a great job of moving without the ball and integrating into MIA's offensive system instead of being a ball hog. He's assisted on 63% of his makes vs only 44% last year.


    Look out.
  18. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    So to sum up, Lebron James is very good.
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  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    He's taken it to 11.
  20. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    I thought I'd run a little correlative data...

    FG% and FT%: (players with less than 40 fga or 10 fta removed)
    [​IMG]
    I suspect we all can guess who player A is, but anyone want to take a guess who players B,C,D, and E are? (No peeking!)

    So what we find here is that, when you remove your few outliers, the ability to hit 2-point baskets has almost nothing to do with the ability to hit free throws. This isn't a huge surprise - your bigs are typically worse free throw shooters and are typically taking a higher rate of high-percentage shots. What I expect, though, is that the better long-range shooters are probably better free throw shooters.

    Wanting to dig deeper, I went back to last year (bigger sample size) and looked at 3p% vs. FT%? (min 40 of each):

    [​IMG]
    Turns out that there's a slight correlation between the two, but not much. I'm assuming that we're seeing a bit of natural selection at play - poor ft shooters tend to be the big guys and they tend to shoot both worse free throws and worse 3-pointers.

    If we strengthen the data validity by getting rid of the sub-100 attempt shooters, we find a little bit of a stronger correlation:

    [​IMG]
    But if we drop out those four obvious outliers (in order of 3p%: Maurice Harkless, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, and Marcus Morris), the correlation actually gets a little weaker.
    [​IMG]
    This is interesting to me. Clearly the three types of shots - 3,2, or 1 point baskets - require a different skillset. While there are guys that shoot a high 3p% and high ft% at the same time, the two are very different skills and ability to do one well does not reliably predict the ability to do another well. I wouldn't have thought that this would be the case.
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