1. Football Picks Survivor is done for 2014. Congrats to billlaimbeer from The Pistons Forum

The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    4 out of the league's worst 6 3-man combos per minute are populated by the Pistons (filtered for total minutes of 600 or more):

    1) Favors/ Gordon/ Jefferson (Uta): -9.0
    2) Jennings/ Monroe/ Drummond: -6.5
    3) Smith/ Monroe/ Drummond: -6.4

    4) Hawes/ Turner/ Young (Phi): -6.1
    5) Jennings/ Smith/ Monroe: -5.6
    6) Jennings/ Smith/ Drummond: -3.4

    Shaking up the starting lineup is pretty much mandatory at this point. It ain't working.

    In terms of the 2-man breakouts of the above, our worst 3 2-man combos this year are:
    1) Drummond-Monroe
    2) Drummond- Jennings
    3) Drummond- Pope


    Might want to consider making Drummond the one to come off the bench. He's been looking fatigued lately anyways. He'll probably take it the best. Wait until after the coaches select him for his first all-star team and then pull the trigger.

    The problem is then that Singler is really our only SF. We would need to release Siva and sign someone else capable of coming off the bench at SF. I'm thinking that maybe E.J. Singler would be a good fit. That way, we would always have a Singler on the court.
     
  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    20,973
    Likes Received:
    2,805
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Dagobah
    This is what I was trying to say about Andre. I think he's got the most upside, and he will probably realize it instead of being another Darko or Stuckey, but right now, he's not playing superb ball, even if his numbers are solid. It could be a chemistry issue. It could be his teammates actually bring down his performance. I don't know tbh.
     
  3. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,084
    Likes Received:
    1,329
    Our marquee free agent signings together with our core youth - Deeetroit Basketball!
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Eastern Conference:

    Here are the shooting percentages of the 3-point make leaders from each team- (note that it isn't the 3-point percentage leader from each team, but rather the percentage that the highest volume shooter has)

    Team: %age/ Player
    ATL: .500/ Korver
    ORL: .448/ Afflalo
    PHI: .441/ Hawes
    BRK: .440/ Johnson
    IND: .412/ George
    WAS: .411/ Webster
    BOS: .396/ Green
    MIA: .381/ Allen
    CHI: .376/ Dunleavy
    TOR: .373/ Lowry
    MIL: .370/ Mayo
    DET: .362/ Jennings
    CLE: .359/ Irving
    CHA: .358/ Walker
    NYK: .354/ Smith

    Korver is on fire this year from everywhere. Not only is he at the top of this list, but he's made more 3's than anybody in the EC this year with 81 already. We've all heard about his 100 game make streak. You don't get that unless you shoot a ridiculously high percentage.

    We really need some knock down shooters on our team. Was hoping Pope would fill that role, but he's looking like a legs shooter who is stretching a little to the NBA distance.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    1.ORAT LEADERS- NBA

    Wesley Matthews-POR126.7
    2.Jose Calderon-DAL125.4
    3.Robin Lopez-POR123.8
    4.Chris Paul-LAC123.7
    5.LeBron James-MIA123.1
    6.Jordan Hill-LAL122.7
    7.Martell Webster-WAS122.6
    8.Kevin Love-MIN122.3
    9.Kyle Singler-DET122.3
    10.Brook Lopez-BRK121.3
    11.Kevin Durant-OKC121.1
    12.Amir Johnson-TOR120.3
    13.Anthony Davis-NOP120.3
    14.Ryan Anderson-NOP120.2
    15.Kyle Korver-ATL119.4
    16.Damian Lillard-POR119.2
    17.Chandler Parsons-HOU119.0
    18.Kyle Lowry-TOR118.7
    19.J.J. Redick-LAC118.6
    20.Dirk Nowitzki-DAL118.2
     
  6. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,974
    Likes Received:
    1,761
    Gender:
    Male
    Stupid Dumars just gave away Singler to get Brandon Jennings. Milwaukee fans and management never saw Singler as a throw-in; no they were thrilled that they were getting a player who, on the offensive end, is as vital to his team as Durant or Kevin Love. Yet another terrible mistake by Dumars, giving away talented players for nothing. We could have used a shooter like that for sure.
     
    roscoe36 likes this.
  7. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2006
    Messages:
    4,264
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    Ann Arbor/Chicago/Walland, TN
    Now, I like a good ORAT as much as the next guy... Actually, I have no idea what ORAT means. Time to Google.

    Past tense of the Catalan verb orar
    Office of Radical Alternative Thinking
    Operational Readiness and Airport Transfer
    Office for Refugees Archdiocese of Toronto

    I'm thinking it must the the second one.

    The interwebs are amazing.
     
    LA Dre and roscoe36 like this.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
  9. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,907
    Likes Received:
    873
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    I think if Drummond or Monroe went to the bench and learned to thrive in that role, we'd be a much better team. I agree with sending Drummond to the bench because I believe a 2nd unit featuring Dre, Bynum and Stuckey could be pretty good; but Dre seems to play very well in the 1st qtr of games.....uggghhh, this stuff isn't easy at all.
     
  10. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    16,246
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Michigan
    Of course it is easy. Just read the Rotations thread!
     
    The Panda likes this.
  11. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2006
    Messages:
    4,264
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    Ann Arbor/Chicago/Walland, TN
    TaS will of course know where the real numbers are. Towards the end of the Rockets/Knicks game last night the announcers said that in last possession potential game winning situations Melo had shot 1-16 or something like that, while Joe Smith was 12-14, or something like that.

    Yikes.
     
  12. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,251
    Likes Received:
    968
    Of course he plays well in the first quarter of games - that's when he's not tired. He'd be Not Tired in the second quarter if he came off the bench, and a unit featuring Bynum/Stuckey/Jerebko/Harrelson/Drummond would be pretty good, I would think, even if wasn't the most defensively capable squad.
     
    linwood likes this.
  13. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,907
    Likes Received:
    873
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    I agree. I think one of the reasons for our 4th qtr meltdowns are fatigue. We ask Moose and Dre to do a lot of work and it's physically exhausting work. Fighting in the trenches for post and rebounding position, running the floor, guarding pick and rolls.....I think Mo needs to cut back their minutes so they're not running on Empty in the 4th qtr. Those 2 should probably only be playing about 30-32mpg.
     
    brofmfa, linwood and The Panda like this.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    We need more chaos on offense. Our guys are great finishers in the paint and great passers. They recognize opportunities really well in a fast paced game.

    The controlled station to station passing is not creating any thing other than contested post shots, which aren't that efficient.
     
    The Panda and roscoe36 like this.
  15. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,104
    Likes Received:
    1,215
    Gender:
    Male
    Drummond is only averaging a touch over 32mpg this year, but I there have been games where he has pushed 40. That's unfair on a second year centre in my mind.

    Whatever we say about him, Frank had the right idea with regard to bringing along Drummond. Slowly increase his minutes as he picks up on new things in training and plays well in games. Don't force him into situations where he leans on old, bad habits. Which is what is happening when he is tired - he stops hassling the ball handler and tends to retreat on pick and rolls, giving the other team more space to operate.
     
  16. brofmfa

    brofmfa Bench Warmer Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    917
    Likes Received:
    192
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Definitely but strange while they're pro.
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Splitting up the big 3.

    OK, 82games updated their data through yesterday's game. Here is how the updated numbers look as far as combos go for the season to date:

    Smith/Monroe/Drummond on the court together:
    98.7 points per 100
    109.3 points per 100 on defense
    -10.6 point spread per 100 possessions
    eFG is .441 to .494
    Sample = 561 minutes

    Singler + only 2 out of the big 3:
    110.7 points
    107.7 points against
    +3.0 point spread
    eFG is .479 to .449
    Sample = 330 minutes

    Pope + only 2 out of the big 3:
    115.1 points
    100.7 points against
    +14.4 point spread
    eFG is .504 to .432
    Sample = 137 minutes

    Pope + Singer + 2 only 2 out of the big 3:
    112.2 points
    102.9 points against
    +9.3 point spread
    eFG is the same at .468
    We get them by getting 4 more FTA and rebounding 56% of all rebs.

    Without Jennings or Billups:
    106.7 points
    106.7 points against


    It would be a huge leadership move for either Smith/ Monroe/ or Drummond to volunteer to come off the bench for the good of the team. There is no other possible move that would scream selflessness like that. I think that it would inspire others and it would be better than having the mandate come down from Cheeks (if he ever gets around to it).

    We all know the reasons for Mo's hesitation:
    Smith- prize FA signing. Aggressive personality. Can't split minutes at C.
    Monroe- contract year.
    Drummond- franchise player on rookie contract on edge of making all-star team. Can't play PF.


    Since Monroe can play PF or C and since Smith should only play PF and Drummond only C, it makes a ton of sense for Monroe to be the one off the bench to replace whichever player needs to come out (foul trouble, fatigue, bad match up, whatever). But doing so would likely cost Monroe $$ on his next contract if it works and he settles into a bench role and is considered a bench player.

    My conclusion is that Smith should be the one to volunteer since he's the new guy and since he's locked in for many years at a generous rate. It won't hurt him financially.


    My other thought is that if Mo has to make the decision, he should tell them that the guy that comes off the bench will get the most minutes. Give them 24 hours to figure out who wants it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2014
    Walter and KGREG like this.
  18. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,907
    Likes Received:
    873
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    I say Drummond comes off the bench, last night he basically said he's an energy guy.....energy guys need to come off the bench.
     
    The Panda likes this.
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,866
    Likes Received:
    3,282
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    I would be happy with any solution, including that one. Drummond is incredible when he's bouncing off the walls. It's more a question of how it happens I believe (i.e. does somebody volunteer or does Cheeks have to do it and face unhappy personnel).
     
  20. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,974
    Likes Received:
    1,761
    Gender:
    Male
    The team is losing. No starter has the right to complain if he is benched.
     

Share This Page