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The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Rather than benching someone, it might work to surround the big three with shooters and set up an offense based on one of the three making decisions from the high post.

    I've been trying, well, for a minute or so, to think of a similar situation where it has worked to play three big men together. Maybe Parish, McHale, and Bird? Nothing else is coming to mind.
     
  2. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Bird was big, but he was a terrific shooter. I can't think of another team that featured a PF and two centers in their starting lineup.
     
  3. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    We have our Bird in Singler.
     
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  4. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's a smaller bird, doesn't smell or sound as good, but it is our bird.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Quarter by Quarter performance: to set the record straight and make sure we're all on the same page with where the problem lies.

    Q: DET/ OPP/ Diff
    1: 25.6/ 25.7/ -0.1
    2: 25.9/ 24.1/+1.8
    3: 24.1/ 25.6/ -1.5
    4: 22.3/ 25.7/ -3.4

    1H: 51.5/ 49.8/ +1.7
    2H: 46.4/ 51.3/ -4.9

    So, in the 2nd half, our scoring drops by 5.1 points while our opponents' goes up 1.5 points.

    Notice though that most of our problem is not the 3rd quarters, but it's actually the 4th quarter. After 3 quarters, we actually average a 0.2 point lead on the opposition.

    The 4th quarter is the only one where losing by a little can lead to losing by a lot (due to the intentional fouling and other tactics to try to increase variance- like injecting Will Bynum to go hero mode).

    We are 1-17 when trailing after 3 quarters...

    Detroit Pistons NBA Statistics By Quarter 2013-2014 - Detroit Pistons NBA Fantasy Basketball Stats
     
  6. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    You know TaS, I always do a double-take every time I read one of your posts. They are always insightful, but accompanied by a not-too-flattering picture of Cheeks; a combination that sends my brain to question reality.
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I finally found the quarter by quarter splits per player (cnnsi.com)

    Not sure that the theory that Jennings is the cause of our problems is correct:

    Q: Pts/ Ast/ Tov/ FG%/ 3P%/ FT% (per 36 min)
    1: 14.5/ 11.4/ 3.1/ .396/ .386/ .944
    2: 15.0/ 13.7/ 2.7/ .343/ .290/ .850
    3: 16.0/ 8.1/ 3.7/ .394/ .306/ .737
    4: 21.9/ 8.1/ 3.4/ .377/ .352/ .680


    It's a mixed bag, but his scoring goes up dramatically in the 4th while his FG% stays relatively constant- 3 point percentage is actually quite strong (they don't give blended eFG or TS%, so I'm surmising based on 3P% up). His assists are lower in the 2nd half, but don't drop off in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd. His turnovers are slightly better in the 4th. Notice his FT shooting though. He doesn't take many, so could be small sample issues. Otherwise it appears as though fatigue has some affect on his ability to convert from the line.

    If I get time later, I'll take a look at other players with the applicable stats for them. Would be especially curious to see what Smith is doing in the 4th and also whether fatigue seems to be hurting Drummond by the 4th quarters.
     
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  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Drummond by quarter. His scoring goes way down in the 4th, but his rebounding rate is OK and so is his FG%. My guess is just that we are playing more isolation basketball and he doesn't get as many touches.

    Q: Pts/ FG%/ Reb/Stl/Blk/ FT%
    1: 16.9/ .617/ 13.0/ 1.3/ 2.2/ .400
    2: 14.6/ .615/ 14.2/ 2.0/ 2.0/ .405
    3: 13.0/ .578/ 15.2/ 1.3/ 1.7/ .333
    4: 11.1/ .600/ 12.9/ 1.8/ 1.4/ .364

    His minutes per quarter are extremely consistent too. 8.3/8.9/8.3/7.8

    Conclusion: Drummond is not playing materially worse in the 4th quarter, but he's getting fewer FGA's for whatever reason. Notice that his scoring rate drops steadily quarter by quarter while his FG% stays fairly constant. He gets so few FTs that they aren't towing down his scoring much.
     
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    And now for the main attraction: JOSH SMITH

    Q: Pts/ FG%/ 3P%/ Reb/Ast/ Stl/Blk/ PF
    1: 17.3/ .421/ .243/ 8.2/ 3.9/ 1.6/ 1.0/ 2.0
    2: 18.0/ .523/ .318/ 9.5/ 5.0/ 1.5/ 2.0/ 1.5
    3: 14.4/ .357/ .233/ 4.7/ 2.9/ 1.4/ 2.2/ 2.2
    4: 12.6/ .323/ .219/ 5.6/ 1.9/ 1.4/ 0.9/ 4.7


    I think we're getting closer to figuring out why we are terrible in the 4th quarters. Smith has pretty much been Cheeks' go-to player in the 4th quarters.

    He's shooting an abysmal .323 compared to .523 in our best quarter. His rebounding falls off a cliff in the 2nd half. His assists also fall off a cliff. We are a much better team when Josh is dishing out 5 assists/36 than 1.9. His blocks are low and his personal fouls spike up more than 2x any other quarter. I would say that many of those are intentional fouls, but usually it's the guards that do most of the end-game fouling.


    So, in the 4th quarter during crunch time, we should all be more excited about seeing Dre pump fake, and then lean into the defender to try to draw a shooting foul than we should be to see Smith launch a 3-ball. EV is .728 points to .657.


    Seeing this really takes away my motivation to research additional players. Bynum would be an interesting case since we often ask him to lead our comeback efforts.
     
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  10. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    We may not have a Pistons problem.
    We may have a Josh Smith problem.
     
  11. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    FIFY
     
  12. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    We don't have a real leader on the floor during crunch time the second half. While other teams appear to adjust at half time, the Pistons come out as if neither the players nor the coach has any recollection of what they did right or wrong in the first half. It's not that don't play smart....none of them seem to have the concentration to shoot from distance or from the FT line. On the defensive side...they always seem to leave a man open beyond the arc where teams are getting off over 25 shots a game on them. Most of them are wide open. No one puts a hand in the offensive players face and none seem to want to hustle if they get too far behind.

    The two new guys seem to be reluctant leaders on the court. Neither Stuckey or Bynum are afraid, but I would never trust Bynum to be that leader even if everyone else had fouled out.
     
  13. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Do we really need a statistical analysis to see what the problem is? Not a single one of our starters can consistently make a shot outside of the paint, add in the bad FT shooting and terrible defense......and voila! Also our 2 lading scorers on this team Jenniings and Smith shoot under 40% from the floor.....yet they take the most shots on the team.
     
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    But we're good in the first half with the same guys.
     
  15. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Watching the Pistons nowadays feels like being drunk on a blind date. You meet this hottie who is the most amazing woman you've ever seen and you start the evening having a great time. Eventually the buzz wears off and you realize that your date is not that hot, missing a lot of teeth, and actually is a guy who keeps referring to himself in third person as Booba.
     
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  16. linwood

    linwood All-Star

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    Sounds like my typical Friday night!
     
  17. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    The Pistons could win or be the better than .500 team we thought they might be with their offense despite the flaws.

    Their defense is about as bad as it can get. They don't do anything well and play most of it within 15' of the basket they're shooting at.
     
  18. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    You know what's funny....our record is very similar to their games in that they can't stopped the slide. All they've needed was a win or two to stay in the mix but they just can't stop the bleeding. In the games the score ends up looking embarrassing, I hope it won't be like that for our overall record.
     
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Some further analysis on our 4th quarter issue:

    Q: Off/ Def/ Margin (rank in league)
    1: 13/ 22/ 17
    2: 10/ 10/ 4
    3: 18/ 23/ 23
    4: 28/ 19/ 30

    So, the 4th quarter is our 2nd best defensive quarter.

    It's not just our imagination that we are a good first half team and that is probably why we are all so frustrated. We're the 4th best team overall in the league in the 2nd quarters this year (and who said our bench was weak?).

    Through halftime, we have been the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference this year behind Miami!
    Through the end of the 3rd quarter, we have been the 4th best team in the East behind Indiana, Miami, and Atlanta.


    This really is a 4th quarter issue and it's purely because of our anemic offense. The defense is fine and would probably get a lot better if we stopped horribly missing shots (Smith's low 200 level 3-point jacks, Charlie V's .100 3-point shooting in 4th quarters, Smith's iso post turnovers, etc.).

    By the way, I did look up Will Bynum. I don't think he's our 4th quarter problem. His scoring rate goes up dramatically, it's his highest assist rate quarter, it's his best ast/tov quarter, and it's his 2nd best quarter FG% wise. He averages 18.6 points and 6.4 assists per 36 in that 4th.



    Here are some other team stats that I found interesting for the Pistons:
    %age of points scored from 3-point range: 18.6% (26th in the league)
    %age of points scored from the FT line: 16.5% (21st)
    %age of points scored from 2-point range: 64.8% (2nd)

    Sad to say, but if you took away the 3-point line, we'd probably be one of the top 6 teams in the league.


    Fastbreak points per game: 16.8 (4th in the league and 2nd in the East). Strong suit of ours for sure.

    3point shooting %: 31.3% (30th)
    FT shooting %: 66.0% (30th)

    Pretty difficult to be good when you're dead last in both of those categories. Especially when 35% of our offense comes from those attempts.

    REBOUNDING
    Off reb %: 1st
    Def reb %: 17th
    Tot reb %: 7th (strong suit)


    BLOCKS
    Block %: 6.3% (8th) strong suit

    STEALS
    Steal %: 8.0% (5th) strong suit

    Technical fouls per game: 0.4 (6th highest in the league). I feel like we don't get any, but I guess its because I got used to Sheed and Ben.



    We are good at scoring in the paint, scoring in transition, and scoring inside the arc. We are a really strong offensive rebounding team and overall rebounding team. We are strong in blocks and steals. We are an Eastern Conference Finals team in the first half. We are an Eastern Conference Semi Finals team through 3 quarters. We are the Washington Generals in the 4th quarters.

    We are horrible at shooting 3's and free throws, but we make up for it with all of our positives through 3 quarters. And then the bottom drops out.


    Going through all of this actually gives me hope that there is a fix to this. The team must be deliberately playing a different style in the 4th quarters. Mo Cheeks has to think about what he's telling the team and re-evaluate completely. It has the fingerprints of coaching interference IMO.

    I saw the stat that said that in the 4th quarters this year with Josh Smith on the floor, the Pistons get outscored by 26.4 points per 100 possessions. For a team that loses on average by a few points per game, and for a team that plays Smith as the 4th quarter "go-to" guy, that hole in the bucket is pretty substantial. Gotta try benching him in the 4th for a while.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2014
  20. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Fourth quarters are all about coaching. Teams naturally tighten up in the fourth so the coach has to find a way to break down defense. This is why Cheeks is such a failure. He is letting Josh Smith take off balance 3's, letting Jennings dribble down the clock and force a pass to the high post. I don't care how good these guys think they are, if they do this, bench them. They know what they are doing. Put them on the pine and play someone willing to do the right thing.
     

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